Not long ago, NFL fans who wanted to dive headfirst into the prop-betting pool had to wait until at least January, when bookmakers would post a handful of prop offerings at the start of the playoffs.
Today? Bettors who would rather wager on team or player-specific props instead of the side or total can do so on the regular. That’s because every major sportsbook now offers a robust NFL prop-betting menu from the Thursday night season opener through Super Bowl Sunday.
So throughout the 2021-22 season, Props.com will peruse that menu and serve up our 10 favorite NFL props of the week—even throwing in a free side of analysis. (What can we say? We’re givers!).
Now, this is the part where most sites would feel compelled to remind you that “the following is for informational purposes only and should not be used as the basis for any actual cash wager”—but, come on. Who are we kidding?
All odds are as of Noon ET Sept. 24.
Justin Fields Over/Under 53.5 rushing yards (at Cleveland)
The odds: Over -115 / Under -115 (at The SuperBook)
The case for the Over: In limited action, the Bears’ rookie QB tallied 34 rushing yards on 11 carries—good for just 3.1 yards per tote. But with a porous offensive line facing a stout Cleveland pass rush, Fields figures to be on the run a lot in this game—both by design and out of self-preservation.
The case for the Under: The Browns rank ninth in the league in rush defense, having allowed 155 yards on the ground across two games. Also, while Fields compiled 867 rushing yards in two seasons (22 games) at Ohio State, he averaged only 4.2 yards per carry.
Looking for more information on this prop? Good thing we have an entire article dedicated to Justin Fields’ rushing prop in Week 3.
T.J. Hockenson Over/Under 5.5 receptions (vs. Baltimore)
The odds: Over -130 / Under -105 (at BetMGM)
The case for the Over: New Lions QB Jared Goff already has targeted his talented tight end 20 times in two games, with Hockenson hauling in 16 of those passes (eight in each game). Now Goff and Hockenson face a Ravens defense that yielded 10 catches to Raiders TE Darren Waller (for 105 yards) in Week 1 and seven catches to Chiefs TE Travis Kelce (for 109 yards) last week.
The case for the Under: Time will tell if Goff and Hockenson can maintain this level of production long term. But what we do know is that last year, with Matthew Stafford throwing to him, Hockenson caught more than five passes in a game just three times in 16 contests.
Looking for more information on this prop? Hockenson is a featured pick in our Three NFL Prop Bets article this week.
Justin Herbert Over/Under 301.5 passing yards (at Kansas City)
The odds: Over -115 / Under -115 (at DraftKings)
The case for the Over: In terms of passing yards, you can’t get more consistent than the Chargers’ second-year QB: He passed for 337 yards in Week 1 at Washington and 338 yards in Week 2 vs. the Cowboys. Speaking of consistency, here’s what Herbert did in two games against the Chiefs last year: 311 yards in Week 1 at home (his pro debut), 302 yards in Week 17 at KC.
The case for the Under: Not sure you can make a case for the Under, given the Chiefs’ leaky defense that’s given up 29 and 36 points in two games. So let’s roll with this: Sustained winds of nearly 15 mph are expected at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday. Of course, Herbert’s arm is strong enough to cut through that kind of breeze.
For more analysis on Justin Herbert and others, check out our article: Best QB Prop Bets for Week 3.
Mac Jones Over/Under 22.5 completions (vs. New Orleans)
The odds: Over -125 / Under -105 (at DraftKings)
The case for the Over: For the first time since 2001, Bill Belichick has handed a rookie quarterback the keys to his offense. And so far, The Hoodie has let that rookie take his offense for a spin, as Jones has thrown 69 passes in two games. The former Alabama star went 29-for-39 against Miami in Week 1 and 22-for-30 in last week’s blowout of the Jets.
The case for the Under: This game is projected to be tight—New England is a 3-point favorite—so it won’t be shocking if Belichick plays it conservatively. It also won’t be shocking if he pulls the reigns back on Jones, because the only thing predictable about The Hoodie is that he’s unpredictable.
For more prop bet analysis on Mac Jones and others, check out our article: Best QB Prop Bets for Week 3.
Najee Harris Over/Under 64.5 rushing yards (vs. Cincinnati)
The odds: Over -118 / Under -112 (The SuperBook)
The case for the Over: Unlike his former Crimson Tide teammate, Harris has gotten off to a slow start, rushing for just 83 yards in two contests. However, with Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger nursing a chest injury, this might be the week coach Mike Tomlin unleashes his rookie RB, who has just 26 carries.
The case for the Under: Vikings RB Dalvin Cook rushed for 131 yards last week in Arizona, while Bears RB David Montgomery scampered for 108 yards in Week 1 against the Rams. What’s that got to do with Harris? Glad you asked: In consecutive games against the Bengals, Cook (Week 1) and Montgomery (Week 2) produced the exact same rushing stat line: just 61 yards on 20 carries.
Looking for more running back props? Check out our picks for Chase Edmonds, Alvin Kamara, and others in the Running Back Props article for Week 3.
Zach Wilson Over/Under 212.5 passing yards (at Denver)
The odds: Over -115 / Under -115 (at The SuperBook)
The case for the Over: Well, it can’t possibly be any worse for the Jets’ rookie QB than it was last week when he tossed four interceptions in an ugly home loss to the Patriots. All jokes aside, Wilson did eclipse this total in Week 1 at Carolina (258 yards) and came very close against New England (210 yards). Also, there’s a good chance the Jets will be playing from behind all day in Denver, because, well, they’re the Jets. That should lead to plenty of garbage-time yards for Wilson.
The case for the Under: Counterpoint to that latter point: Denver had a comfortable second-half lead at Jacksonville last week, but the secondary allowed Jaguars rookie QB Trevor Lawrence—the guy drafted just ahead of Wilson—to complete just 18 of 33 passes for a meager 118 yards. And Lawrence was at home. Wilson is heading into hostile territory at Mile High. (Yeah, we know … but we’ll always call it Mile High.)
For more analysis on Zach Wilson and others, check out our article: Best QB Prop Bets for Week 3.
Henry Ruggs Over/Under 39.5 receiving yards (vs. Miami)
The odds: Over -115 / Under -115 (at DraftKings)
The case for the Over: The Raiders’ speedy WR has topped this receiving total in both of his team’s victories—and he’s done it on just seven total receptions. After catching just two passes for 46 yards in Week 1 against Baltimore, Ruggs tallied 113 yards on five grabs last week in Pittsburgh.
The case for the Under: Las Vegas QB Derek Carr has been spectacular so far, but he’s dealing with a bum ankle. He’s expected to start against Miami, but will he finish? If the answer is “no,” we’re going to get a Nathan Peterman sighting. If that happens, there’s a good chance Ruggs will finish this game with more tackles (after Peterman interceptions) than catches.
Cooper Kupp longest reception Over/Under 25.5 yards (vs. Tampa Bay)
The odds: Over -115 / Under -115 (at BetMGM)
The case for the Over: A pretty good bet that the Rams wideout will get plenty of opportunities to cash the Over here, based on the fact he has a team-high 16 catches (twice as many as any of his teammates). Kupp also easily bested this number in his first two games, with long catches of 56 yards against Chicago and 44 yards against Indianapolis. And in last year’s 27-24 home win over Tampa Bay, Kupp had 11 catches for 145 yards with a long of 37.
The case for the Under: The Bucs’ defense has given up a ton of points (54) and passing yards (703) in the first two games. However, the five longest catches they’ve allowed have gone for 22, 23, 24, 28, and 31 yards, meaning their DBs are keeping receivers in front of them.
Jimmy Garoppolo Over/Under 0.5 interceptions (vs. Green Bay)
The odds: Over +105 / Under -140 (at DraftKings)
The case for the Over: The 49ers QB (for now, anyway) has yet to throw a pick in 55 pass attempts this season. There’s the positive. Here’s the negative: In 36 regular-season and playoff games (35 starts) since arriving in San Francisco in November 2017, Garoppolo has never gone three straight contests without throwing at least one INT.
The case for the Under: The Packers have faced two notorious turnover machines so far—the Saints’ Jameis Winston and Goff—and they have a grand total of one INT. Also, in two games against the Niners in 2019 (one regular season, one playoff), Green Bay failed to pick off Jimmy G.
Dallas Cowboys Over/Under 27.5 points (vs. Philadelphia)
The odds: Over -115 / Under -105 (at The SuperBook)
The case for the Over: The last three times they’ve welcomed the Eagles to Dallas, the Cowboys have put up 29, 37, and 37 points (conversely, they scored 27, 9, and 9 points in their last three trips to Philly). Also, with this being Dallas’ home opener, it’s interesting to note that before QB Dak Prescott suffered his season-ending leg injury last year, he guided the Cowboys’ offense to 40, 39, and 37 points at home.
The case for the Under: Tough to find fault with Philadelphia’s defense in the early going, as the Eagles have surrendered a total of 23 points to the Falcons (road) and 49ers (home). We see you rolling your eyes—So what? It’s not like the Falcons and Niners have scary offenses. To which we reply: Atlanta put up 25 points on Tampa Bay in Week 2, while San Francisco led all Week 1 scorers with 41 points at Detroit.
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS:
J. Winston O/U 0.5 INTs (OVER – 2 INTs)
Houston Texans O/U 17.5 points scored (OVER – 21 points)
D. Waller O/U 6.5 receptions (UNDER – 5 receptions)
J. Taylor O/U 60.5 rushing yards (UNDER – 51 rushing yards)
Patriots -9.5, +155 (alternate spread) at N.Y. Jets (YES – Patriots win by 19)
T. Brady O/U 313.5 passing yards (UNDER – 276 passing yards)
A. Cooper longest reception O/U 25.5 yards (UNDER – 12 yards)
P. Mahomes longest completion O/U 38.5 yards (OVER – 46 yards)
L. Jackson O/U 67.5 rushing yards (OVER – 107 yards)
M. Crosby O/U 1.5 field goals (UNDER – 0 field goals)
