NFL Week 16 odds are of course being impacted by injury news, but more so once again by COVID. From the high-flying Kansas City Chiefs to the grounded New York Jets, positive tests are mounting across the league.
That’s led to significant line moves and, in some instances, games coming off the board until there’s more clarity.
Props.com’s NFL Week 16 Odds and Ends serves as a one-stop-shop for injury details, weather conditions, and Pros vs. Joes action. Check back regularly for injury updates, significant weather impacts, and notable contrasts between NFL Week 16 sharp bets and public money.
NFL Week 16 Injuries
Kansas City Chiefs: Sunday’s home game against Pittsburgh was off the board Wednesday afternoon at The SuperBook, thanks to K.C.’s COVID issues. Prior to that, the line was already down to Chiefs -7.5, from a -10 opener. The number went back up Thursday night at K.C. -8.5, where it remained Friday afternoon. Wideout Tyreek Hill and tight end Travis Kelce, among others, remain on the COVID list.
Most players can come back by Sunday if they pass league protocols. But place-kicker Harrison Butker, who is not vaccinated, cannot play vs. the Steelers. The total fell from 46.5 to 44 at The SuperBook before coming off the board. It went back up Thursday at 45.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Tight end Pat Freiermuth is in concussion protocols and is out Sunday at Kansas City. Pittsburgh opened as a 10-point underdog and shortened to +7.5 at The SuperBook, due to K.C.’s COVID situation. The matchup — including the total, which dropped from 46.5 to 44 — came off the board Wednesday afternoon. When it went back up Thursday, Pittsburgh was +8.5 and the total was 45, where both sat Friday afternoon.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Tampa Bay got banged up in its shocking 9-0 Sunday night home loss to New Orleans. Wide receiver Chris Godwin suffered a season-ending ACL injury; fellow wideout Mike Evans (hamstring) is out Sunday against Carolina; and running back Leonard Fournette also has a hamstring issue and might be done for the regular season.
Tampa’s defensive backfield could be thin, too. That prompted The SuperBook to significantly adjust off Sunday afternoon’s Bucs -14 opener. Tampa Bay dipped to -11.5 Monday morning and was down to -10 Wednesday afternoon. The total plunged from 48 to 43.
On the upside, wideout Antonio Brown might return after missing several weeks due to an ankle injury and suspension.
Carolina Panthers: QB Sam Darnold, out several weeks with a shoulder injury, has been cleared for contact. While Cam Newton will still start this week, Darnold is expected to see action against Tampa Bay. Wideout DJ Moore (hamstring) is questionable. The Panthers opened as 14-point underdogs at The SuperBook and were at +10 Friday. But that line move is mostly due to the Bucs’ injury situation (see above).
New York Jets: A host of Jets players went on the COVID list Wednesday. Among them were running back Michael Carter, and wideouts Elijah Moore and Jeff Smith. But by Friday, Carter and Smith were cleared. However, left guard Alijah Vera-Tucker and right guard Laurent Duvernay-Tardiff are still in protocols. Further, Jets coach Robert Saleh tested positive and hasn’t yet been cleared. Wideout Jamison Crowder (calf) is doubtful, and multiple defenders are questionable due to injury.
New York opened -1 against Jacksonville and initially rose to -2.5 before dipping to pick ’em at The SuperBook on Wednesday. However, by Friday, the Jets were back up to -2. The total dropped from 42.5 to 41.5.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Running back James Robinson plays pretty much every week, but is also on the injury report every week. Robinson (knee) was questionable midweek for Sunday’s road game against the New York Jets, but he was cleared by Friday. Wideout Laviska Shenault Jr. was questionable with shoulder/foot injuries, then he joined the COVID list Friday and assuredly is out this week. Jacksonville opened +1 at The SuperBook, stretched to +2.5, then shortened to pick, largely due to the Jets’ COVID issues (see above). On Friday, the Jags were at +2, while the total was down a point to 41.5.
Buffalo Bills: Wideout Cole Beasley landed on the COVID list, and since he’s (notoriously) unvaccinated, he’s out this week at New England. Same goes for fellow WR Gabriel Davis. In addition, three starting offensive linemen remained in COVID protocols Friday: guards Jon Feliciano and Cody Ford, and left tackle Dion Dawkins. Bills-Patriots opened as a pick ’em at The SuperBook, and got to Bills +2.5 midweek, then dipped to +2. The total ticked down from an opener of 44 to 43.5 on Friday.
New England Patriots: Running back Damien Harris (hamstring) is questionable Sunday against Buffalo. Also, backup Rhamondre Stevenson landed on the COVID list Friday, so he’s definitely out. Wideout Nelson Agholor (concussion) is out, and fellow wideout Kendrick Bourne is on the COVID list but could be cleared. New England moved from pick ’em to +2.5 by midweek at The SuperBook, and was +2 Friday.
Indianapolis Colts: The ‘rona decimated the middle of the Colts’ offensive line ahead of their Christmas Night contest at Arizona. Guards Quenton Nelson and Mark Glowinski, and center Ryan Kelly have been ruled out for . Several defensive players also are in COVID protocols. The Colts went from +2.5 at The SuperBook to pick em Tuesday, +1 Wednesday and back to the +2.5 opener on Friday. The total has risen a half-point from 48.5 to 49.
New Orleans Saints: The team’s QB room is having COVID troubles, with starter Taysom Hill and backup Trevor Siemian both in protocols. For the moment, that means rookie Ian Book starts the Monday nighter at home against Miami. And that possibility has led to a big move at The SuperBook. New Orleans opened -3, but when the COVID news broke Thursday morning, the line went straight to Saints +1.5. The Saints were 2.5-point ‘dogs on Friday afternoon, and the total was at 37.5, down from a 40 opener.
Baltimore Ravens: Lamar Jackson (ankle) did not make the trip to Cincinnati for Sunday’s game at the Bengals, meaning the Ravens’ QB will miss his second straight game. Making matters worse, backup QB Tyler Huntley has been placed on the reserve/COVID list and thus also has been ruled out. That means Baltimore’s offense will be in the hands of longtime backup QB Josh Johnson. The Ravens opened +3.5, but after the news about Jackson and Huntley became public, Baltimore shot to +7 late Saturday night at The SuperBook. The total initially jumped from 43.5 to 45, backed up to 44 early Saturday, then fell to 41.5 on news of Johnson starting.
Chicago Bears: QB Justin Fields (ankle) is questionable, and primary backup Andy Dalton (hand/groin) is out. That means Nick Foles will get the start Sunday at Seattle. Wideout Marquise Goodwin (foot) is questionable, but the Bears hope to have wideout Allen Robinson out of COVID protocols. Chicago opened +7 at The SuperBook, went to +6.5 Tuesday and returned to +7 Friday afternoon. As of late Saturday, the Bears remained +7 (Even), while the total was down from 44 to 41.5.
Washington Football Team: Running back Antonio Gibson (toe) is questionable Sunday night at Dallas. Washington went from +10 to +11 and back to +10 by Friday at The SuperBook. The total has dipped from an opener of 47.5 to 47.
Denver Broncos: QB Teddy Bridgewater (concussion) is out Sunday at Las Vegas. Interestingly, with Drew Lock the presumed starter under center, the game is now pick ’em at The SuperBook. Denver opened +1 and initially went to +1.5. The total fell from 42.5 to 41.5 as of midweek and remained there Friday night.
Las Vegas Raiders: Tight end Darren Waller (back/knee), who missed the last three games, is doubtful Sunday vs. Denver. Las Vegas opened -1 and rose to -1.5 Tuesday at The SuperBook, then fell to pick ’em by Wednesday afternoon and held there late Friday. The total is down a point to 41.5.
New York Giants: After missing three straight games with a neck injury, QB Daniel Jones went on injured reserve, ending his season. Second-year QB Jake Fromm will make his first career start, as it appears New York has seen enough of veteran backup Mike Glennon. Wideout Kadarius Toney (oblique) is questionable Sunday at Philadelphia. The Giants went from +10.5 to +9.5 to +10 over the course of the week at The SuperBook. The total is down a tick from 47.5 to 47.
San Francisco 49ers: Running back Elijah Mitchell (knee) will miss his third straight game when San Francisco travels to Tennessee on Thursday. The 49ers opened -3 at The SuperBook, quickly moved to -3.5, then returned to -3 Wednesday afternoon. The total is down a half-point from 44.5 to 44.
Tennessee Titans: The left side of Tennessee’s offensive line will rely on backups. Left tackle Taylor Lewan (back) and left guard Rodger Saffold (shoulder/illness) are out Thursday against San Francisco. The Titans moved from +3 to +3.5 and back to +3 at The SuperBook this week.
Cleveland Browns: Cleveland, hit hard in Week 15 by COVID issues, is starting to get players cleared to return for Saturday’s game at Green Bay. Most importantly, QB Baker Mayfield and wideout Jarvis Landry cleared protocols Friday. Coach Kevin Stefanski is back, as well, along with tight end Austin Hooper, both clearing protocols by midweek.
Still, the Browns have a few defensive starters questionable, including end Miles Garrett (groin) and tackle Malik Jackson (knee). Also, multiple defensive starters remain in COVID protocols. Cleveland opened +7.5 at The SuperBook, stretched to +9 Tuesday morning, then quickly shortened to +7. On Friday afternoon, Cleveland was back at +7.5. The total dipped from 45.5 to 44, but by Friday was up to 46.5.
Green Bay Packers: Wideout Marquez Valdes Scantling’s status for the Packers’ Christmas Day home game against the Browns is uncertain, as he’s on the COVID list. This line has bounced around throughout the week due to Cleveland’s protracted COVID issues. Green Bay opened -7.5 and went to -9 early on at The SuperBook, backed up to -7, and has been at -7.5 since Wednesday.
Detroit Lions: QB Jared Goff remained on the COVID/reserve list Friday, making less likely his return for Sunday’s game at Atlanta. Questionable players due to injury include: perpetually hurt running back D’Andre Swift (shoulder), and wideouts Josh Reynolds (thigh) and Kalif Raymond (shoulder). Detroit opened +4.5, shortened to +3.5, got to +6 Tuesday and +5.5 Wednesday morning. However, the Goff update prompted The SuperBook on Friday to jump from Lions +5.5 to +6.5. The total dropped straight from 44 to 42.5, where it’s sat since Tuesday.
Arizona Cardinals: Running back James Conner (heel) and wideout Rondale Moore (ankle) are questionable Saturday night at home against Indianapolis. Arizona opened -2.5 at The SuperBook and dipped to pick by Tuesday, then rose to -1 Wednesday. The total opened at 48.5 and was up to 49 on Friday night.
NFL Week 16 Weather
Cleveland Browns at Green Bay Packers: All things considered, this Christmas Day cross-conference clash at Lambeau Field will be played in ideal conditions. The forecast calls for mostly cloudy skies, game-time temperatures right at freezing — then dipping below freezing after halftime — and no wind. The SuperBook opened the total at 45.5, fell to 44.5 Tuesday, then climbed to 46.5 by Friday afternoon.
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots: The weather in Foxborough will be far better than it was when these AFC East rivals clashed in upstate New York back in Week 13. And the forecast actually got a little better between midweek and Friday. The only issue could be winds of 10-15 mph — a far cry from the 50 mph-plus gusts in Buffalo three weeks ago. This total is down a half-point from the opener, going from 44 to 43.5 at The SuperBook.
Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks: The Bears figure to feel right at home Sunday in Seattle, where there’s an 80 percent chance of snow. Temperatures will be around 30, with winds of 10-15 mph. The SuperBook adjusted the total from an opener of 44 to 41.5 by Friday afternoon.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs: It will downright balmy in Kansas City on Sunday — at least for late December — with game-time temps possibly reaching the mid-60s. However, wind could be an issue, with sustained breezes of 10 to 20 mph projected throughout the game. Prior to this game coming off The SuperBook’s board on Wednesday afternoon — due to Kansas City’s COVID issues — the total was down nearly a field goal, from an opener of 46.5 to 44. The total reposted at 45 Thursday night.
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles: It’ll be pleasant Sunday, in the low-50s, but there could be winds of 10-15 mph. The total is down 1.5 points at The SuperBook, from 42 to 40.5.
Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Jets: MetLife Stadium is forecast to see breezes of 10-20 mph during Sunday’s game, though game-time temperature should be in the high 40s. The total moved from 42.5 to 41.5 at The Superbook.
San Francisco 49ers at Tennessee Titans: Pleasant conditions are projected for the Week 16 Thursday night game in Nashville, with clear skies and temperatures pushing 50 degrees. However, it could be mildly breezy, with winds of 10 mph. The total opened at 44.5 at The SuperBook and was down a notch to 44 on Wednesday evening.
NFL Week 16 Pros Vs Joes
Cleveland Browns at Green Bay Packers: TwinSpires opened higher than most books at Green Bay -8.5 and dipped to -7.5 for Saturday’s interconference clash at Lambeau Field. As of Wednesday night, the Packers are nabbing 77% of spread bets, but just 58% of spread money. “We saw some sharp money come in on Cleveland +8.5,” TwinSpires trading analyst Zachary Lucas said.
