Are the 49ers and Bears headed for a three-hour snoozefest in Chicago? Will the Cowboys run their winning streak to six in a row (even if they don’t have hobbled starting quarterback Dak Prescott)? Will Tom Brady continue to do Tom Brady things? Can the Lions finally get off the schneid?
We tackle all those questions and more in this week’s First and 10, a breakdown of our 10 favorite Week 8 NFL prop bets.
Odds updated as of 1:30 p.m. ET Oct. 29.
Tua Tagovailoa Over/Under 235.5 passing yards (at Buffalo)
The Odds: Over -115/Under -115 (at BetMGM, DraftKings, The SuperBook, and PointsBet USA)
The case for the Over: Sure, Dolphins general manager Chris Grier wants to punch himself in the face daily for passing up Justin Herbert in favor of Tagovailoa in the 2019 draft. But Miami’s last two losses can’t be pinned entirely on their second-year QB, as he lit up the Jaguars and Falcons for 329 and 291 yards, respectively, and six total TDs. And last year at Buffalo, Tua threw for 361 yards.
The case for the Under: Not only do the Bills lead the NFL in pass defense, surrendering just 180.5 yards per game, but the next best team (Carolina) is nearly 17 yards away. To put that into perspective: The gap between Buffalo and Carolina is greater than the gap between Carolina and the 10th best pass defense (Denver). On top of that, there could be weather issues in upstate New York on Sunday that could put Tua (who doesn’t have the biggest arm in the world) at a disadvantage.
Detroit Lions -1.5 (alternate spread) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (at Detroit)
The odds: +170 (at DraftKings)
The case for the Lions: Well, we already saw the last undefeated team go down this week, with Arizona blowing a chance to get to 8-0 by botching a late-game goal-line situation against the Packers on Thursday. So it would be perfect symmetry for this to be the week the last winless team finally tastes victory. As it is, Detroit has come excruciatingly close to winning twice (losing two 19-17 games to the Ravens and Vikings on insanely long, last-second field goals). The Lions also held a second-half lead against the Rams on the road a week ago. Plus, the Eagles (1-5 last six) stink. But Detroit being Detroit, watch them win by 1. So maybe consider just the standard moneyline bet.
The case against the Lions: Um, they’re the Lions. Need we say more? Actually, we already did.
Derrick Henry longest rush Over/Under 17.5 yards (at Indianapolis)
The odds: Over -120/Under -110 (at DraftKings)
The case for the Over: If you’re asking yourself, “Do these guys include a Henry prop every week?” the answer is, “Sure do!” Can’t help ourselves because the Titans’ throwback tailback is a joy to watch (and bet on). As far as this week’s prop, Henry has cleared this number in five of seven games this season (19, 60, 19, 22, 76).
The case for the Under: The Colts have had Henry’s number over the years, holding him to “just” 88.8 yards per game in 11 meetings. Alas, in his last five games against Indy, Henry still had long rushes of 33, 20, 31, 18, and 34 yards. (This one smells like a gimme Over.)
Ja’Marr Chase Over/Under 5.5 receptions (at N.Y. Jets)
The odds: Over +100/Under -130 (at BetMGM)
The case for the Over: It looks like the Bengals’ rookie wideout has gotten used to the rock-hard NFL footballs he had trouble catching in the preseason. Last week, Chase torched a Ravens defense that held the Chargers to just 3 points in Week 6, going for career-bests of eight receptions and 201 yards. He’s now hauled in at least six passes in three of the last four weeks (and QB Joe Burrow has targeted him 35 times in that span).
The case for the Under: We’ve run out of ways to mock the Jets, who continue to do the Jetsiest Jets things every week. They haven’t been this big of an underdog (10.5 points) all season, and yet they’re at home … and facing the Bengals! So if oddsmakers are right and we’re looking at New York being on the receiving end of yet another blowout, Cincinnati head coach Zac Taylor would be a fool (not to mention negligent) to let Burrow drop back more than 20 times, which obviously would limit Chase’s opportunities.
Ben Roethlisberger Over/Under 38.5 pass attempts (vs. Browns)
The odds: Over -115/Under -115 (at PointsBet USA)
The case for the Over: The Steelers’ 2021 MVP is clearly the team’s ice supplier. Because Pittsburgh’s graybeard QB is averaging as many pass attempts per game (39) as his age, and yet somehow his right arm hasn’t fallen off Monty Python-style. In four of his last five games, Roethlisberger has slung it 40, 58, 40, and 40 times.
The case for the Under: Like in Buffalo, the weather could be nasty in Cleveland on Sunday (hence the low game total of 43). More importantly, the Browns are tied for second in the NFL with 20 sacks (one behind co-leaders Chicago and Minnesota). So the only way Roethlisberger chucks the ball 39-plus times again this week is if Pittsburgh coach Mike Tomlin is listed as Big Ben’s primary life insurance beneficiary. (For the record: Roethlisberger has attempted 36 or fewer passes in six of his last seven games against the Browns).
49ers-Bears Over/Under 35.5 total points (at Chicago)
The odds: Over -165/Under +140 (at BetMGM)
The case for the Over: This alternate total is four points lower than the actual total, meaning the 49ers and Bears need to combine for just five touchdowns, five PATs, and a rouge to hit the Over on this prop. Four of San Francisco’s six games have featured 48 or more combined points, while five of Chicago’s seven have gone over 36.
The case for the Under: Given that Chicago has been a quarterback wasteland since, well, forever, and given that Ohio State hasn’t produced a decent NFL quarterback since, well, forever, we had a pretty good feeling this Justin Fields/Bears thing wouldn’t work. But, jeez, 17 points total the last two weeks? An average of 10.8 points in four games against opponents not named the Lions? Also, San Francisco has averaged just 19.3 points during its four-game losing skid, and its last two road games ended 17-11 and 17-10.
Mike Williams Over/Under 72.5 receiving yards (vs. New England)
The odds: Over -115/Under -115 (at BetMGM, DraftKings, The SuperBook, and PointsBet USA)
The case for the Over: The Chargers’ former first-round draft pick has put up just two duds this season, against the Raiders (1 catch, 11 yards) and Ravens (2 catches, 27 yards). Otherwise, Williams has gone for 82, 91, 122, and 165 yards. Now he faces a mediocre-at-best Patriots secondary that has allowed at least one opposing receiver to go for 73-plus yards in five of seven games.
The case for the Under: While not a huge sample size, it’s worth noting that in three career games against New England (including one in the playoffs), Williams has put up receiving yardage totals of 7, 43, and 68 yards. And the 43-yarder came in the Chargers’ 45-0 home loss just last season.
Tom Brady Over/Under 2.5 passing TDs (at New Orleans)
The odds: Over +100/Under -130 (at BetMGM)
The case for the Over: The Buccaneers QB — and the only human on the planet who’s defeated Father Time and done it completely naturally (insert eye roll) — lit up the Bears for four TD passes last week. This means Brady now has thrown for four or more scores in four of his team’s seven games.
The case for the Under: Those four games we just referenced? They were all at home. Brady has been a mere mortal in three road contests (Rams, Patriots, Eagles), tossing a combined three TDs. Also, in two regular season and one playoff game against the Saints last season, Brady passed for 2, 0, and 2 TDs.
Cowboys -2.5 (alternate spread) vs Vikings (at Minnesota)
The odds: Cowboys +155/Vikings -190 (at BetMGM)
The case for the Cowboys: Since coming up short in the season opener at Tampa Bay, the Cowboys have won five straight games by margins of 3, 20, 8, 24, and 6 points. And Mike McCarthy’s team (somehow!) is the only one that has covered the spread in every contest. Yet Dallas is an underdog in this one (consensus line is now out to Vikings -3). So why not take some nice plus-money with a team riding a five-game winning streak to defeat an opponent that needed a bomb field goal at the gun to beat the Lions in their last home game?
The case for the Vikings: Answer to that last question: Because Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott is dealing with a calf injury he suffered two weeks ago, and he’s still hobbled despite his team having a bye last week. If Dak can’t go or make it to the finish line, say hello to … Cooper Rush. No, that’s not the name of a boy band. That’s the name of Prescott’s backup. Yikes!
Travis Kelce longest reception Over/Under 22.5 yards (vs. New York Giants)
The odds: Over -120/Under -110 (at BetMGM, at DraftKings, and at The SuperBook)
The case for the Over: Can’t believe it took us so long to include an NFL betting prop on the best tight end in football (and one of the best ever). Also can’t believe it took us so long to find a solid argument for taking the Over on this prop. Here’s what we came up with: Kelce has beaten this total three times in his last six games (24, 28, 46), and New York has allowed four tight ends to top this number.
The case for the Under: You mean you can’t make an argument for the Giants’ crappy pass defense? Not really, because it actually hasn’t been awful. New York ranks in the top half of the league in passing yards allowed, and while they’ve allowed 11 opponents to catch a pass of 23 yards or more, only four were tight ends. Then again, none of the four were named Travis Kelce.
— Joe Burrow Over/Under 0.5 interceptions (OVER – 1 INT)
— Davante Adams longest reception Over/Under 26.5 yards (UNDER – 26 yards)
— Derrick Henry Over/Under 25.5 rushing attempts (OVER – 29 yards)
— New England Patriots -10.5 vs. New York Jets (YES – Patriots win by 41)
— Jared Goff Over/Under 267.5 passing yards (OVER – 268 yards)
— Devonta Smith Over/Under 58.5 receiving yards (OVER – 61 yards)
— Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6.5, first half (YES – Bucs led by 32 at half)
— Arizona Cardinals Over/Under 32.5 total points (UNDER – 31 points)
— Carson Wentz Over/Under 212.5 passing yards (UNDER – 150 yards)
— Alvin Kamara Over/Under 90.5 rushing yards (UNDER – 51 yards)
