The major offseason activity is in the books. So, it’s time to check the sportsbook landscape to shop for the best team futures. Armed with a wealth of information, now is the time to get some division winner tickets and monitor line movement as the offseason progresses. Attentive bettors usually nab the best odds in these markets months before the season starts.
The NFC East and NFC North are in the books. Next up is the NFC South. This is the first division betting preview with a runaway favorite. Will someone upset the chalk?
After perusing the odds at multiple sportsbooks, DraftKings Sportsbook is the home of my best bet for the NFC South. However, it pays to look around and get the longest odds if you expect an underdog to knock off the favorite to win the division.
NFC South Odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -250 |
| New Orleans Saints | +310 |
| Carolina Panthers | +900 |
| Atlanta Falcons | +3500 |
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of August 12.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers Odds To Win NFC South: -250
The Buccaneers are the class of the NFC South and priced like it. In fact, they’re arguably the best team in the NFC. In 2021, they tied the Green Bay Packers for the best record in the NFL at 13-4. Their record was more legitimate than Green Bay as well.
According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Bucs outscored their opponents by 158 points last season. That was the fourth-best point differential in the NFL. They also were ranked favorably by Pro Football Focus (PFF) and Football Outsiders (FO), earning the fourth overall team grade at the former and ranking third in Total Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) and fourth in Weighted DVOA at the latter.
Most importantly, Tom Brady ended his abrupt and brief retirement announcement by rejoining Tampa Bay. Bruce Arians is no longer the head coach, but continuity won’t be an issue. The team promoted defensive coordinator Todd Bowles to serve as the head coach, and offensive coordinator Brian Leftwich remains after interviewing for (but not receiving) the head coaching spot at Jacksonville.
Chris Godwin will probably miss the early part of the season while recovering from knee surgery, and Rob Gronkowski hasn’t formally announced an intention to play this year. Regardless, the team added Russell Gage in free agency to soften the blow of Godwin’s probable early-season absence, and the organization is reportedly optimistic about Gronk returning to the team.
Bottom Line: After winning the NFC South by four games last year, they should repeat in 2022. Unfortunately, the short odds aren’t enticing enough to tie up your gambling funds. However, parlaying the Bucs with another division winner is a viable move. For instance, at DraftKings Sportsbook, parlaying the Bucs winning the NFC South with the Buffalo Bills (-225) winning the AFC East yields a much more palatable -109 line.
New Orleans Saints Odds To Win NFC South: +310
The Saints are the only other team with odds shorter than +1200 to win the NFC South. They were also the only other team in the NFC South in 2021 with a positive point differential, outscoring their enemies by 29 points.
New Orleans was firmly mid-pack in 2021, ranking 14th in PFF total grade and Total DVOA. Unfortunately, the Saints have to march forward without head coach Sean Payton. He stepped away from coaching, and defensive coordinator Dennis Allen will take the lead role. New Orleans retained offensive coordinator, Pete Carmichael Jr., creating continuity on the coaching staff. Still, Payton was highly successful. So, it’s noteworthy he’s no longer leading the team.
Nevertheless, there are plenty of reasons to believe the Saints can take a step forward in 2022. First, starting quarterback Jameis Winston had a season-ending injury in the seventh game of 2021. It’s worth noting the Saints were 5-2 in seven games with Winston under center. Jameis is back, and New Orleans added depth behind him by signing veteran QB Andy Dalton.
The Saints hope to get WR Michael Thomas back from the lingering ankle injury that sidelined him for parts of 2020 and the entire 2021 season. Additionally, they were aggressive in the NFL Draft, maneuvering to make two top-20 selections. New Orleans took receiver Chris Olave at 11 and offensive tackle Trevor Penning at 19th overall. The Saints also added veteran slot receiver Jarvis Landry in free agency.
Bottom Line: Yes, New Orleans lost star tackle Terron Armstead in free agency, but the Saints’ offseason has involved win-now moves. They’re not on par with the Bucs, but they could contend for a Wild Card spot. The Saints are easily the second-best team in the division.
Carolina Panthers Odds To Win NFC South: +900
The Sam Darnold experiment was predictably disastrous, and it continued to haunt them in the draft, as they had only one pick inside the top 75. So getting former Cleveland QB Baker Mayfield is an objective upgrade for this offense.
Carolina rattled off three straight wins in 2021 before finishing 5-12. Their final win came in Week 10. The Panthers were outscored by 100 points, ranked 27th in PFF total grade and DVOA, and rounded things out with a horrific 31st ranking in Weighted DVOA.
Bottom Line: Maybe the Panthers will be fortunate enough to get an entire season from Christian McCaffrey after playing in just seven games in 2021 and three in 2020. Nevertheless, CMC isn’t fixing all of Carolina’s issues. The Panthers are likelier to pick first in next year’s draft than win the NFC South. The best betting market to watch for the Panthers is the first NFL head coach to be fired, as Matt Rhule should be the favorite.
Atlanta Falcons Odds To Win NFC South: +3500
The Falcons finished third in the NFC South last year, winning two more games than the Panthers. Yet, they were outscored by 146 points, the fifth-worst scoring differential in the NFL. Interestingly, the dirty birds had a better PFF grade and Weighted DVOA than the Panthers, but marks of 24th and 27th respectively are hardly grounds for celebration. Atlanta was also 30th in Total DVOA.
A quick look at Atlanta’s quarterback room dampens any enthusiasm about a leap to challenge Tampa for the NFC South crown. Let’s be honest, there wasn’t much enthusiasm in the first place. The Falcons signed Marcus Mariota in free agency, and he’ll compete with third-round pick Desmond Ridder for the honor of leading an offense that lacks weaponry.
Bottom Line: Atlanta’s offense will run through second-year tight end Kyle Pitts, rookie wideout Drake London, and surprise 2021 breakout Cordarrelle Patterson. Pitts had an excellent rookie campaign, but this trio isn’t the most exciting group. That’s saying nothing of the group of underwhelming options behind them, such as Bryan Edwards, Olamide Zaccheaus, Auden Tate, Anthony Firkser, Tyler Allgeier, and Damien Williams. Oof. The Falcons and Panthers are in a race to the basement of the NFC South.
NFC South Predictions & Best Bet
Why bet on the mega-chalk Bucs to win the division when you can bet on the obvious second-best team at +130 odds to slot in directly behind Tampa Bay?
The Saints are head and shoulders above the Panthers and Falcons but not up to snuff to push the Buccaneers for the division. Therefore, they’re an enticing bet at +130 to finish second through DraftKings Sportsbook’s Division Specials.
Best Bet: New Orleans Division Finishing Position 2nd (+130 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
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This promotion expires on September 19 – so act now!
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More Division Odds & Predictions
Check out Josh’s predictions from across the other NFL divisions:
