The AL Central presents a bit of a conundrum when you’re putting together the division’s MLB win totals puzzle. (Except for the Royals. They’re the piece of the puzzle the dog chewed up and doesn’t fit anymore.)
The White Sox are the cream of the crop, but questions abound. How much will Carlos Correa gas up the Twins? Is the Tigers’ window opening? Will those improved squads put a cap on Chicago’s ceiling and depress their number? And then there are the Guardians … Guardians of what, exactly? Baseball? The city of Cleveland? Flammable rivers?
Props.com continues its 2022 MLB betting preview with a division-by-division look at MLB win totals. On to the AL Central: baseball’s most unexpected free-agent landing destination.
2022 NL Central Win Totals
| Team | Win Total |
| Chicago White Sox | 91.5 |
| Minnesota Twins | 81.5 (Under -115) |
| Detroit Tigers | 77.5 |
| Cleveland Guardians | 76.5 |
| Kansas City Royals | 74.5 |
Odds via DraftKings and updated as of 6 p.m. ET on March 29.
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Chicago White Sox Win Total
2021 regular-season record: 93-69 (1st place)
2022 win total projection: 91.5
Key additions: INF Josh Harrison, RP Kendall Graveman, RP Joe Kelly
Key subtractions: OF Billy Hamilton, 2B César Hernández, SP Carlos Rodon
Any lineup displaying the names Tim Anderson, Eloy Jiminéz, Jose Abreu, Luis Robert, and Yoan Moncada is going to rake. The question is: How much of that lineup is going to have those guys in it?
The answer last year was “about 2,300 plate appearances between five guys.” Clearly the South Siders would like more than 50-70 games a pop from Robert and Jiminéz this year. But even with that duo missing huge chunks of time, Chicago still battered the rest of the division. Give that quintet close to 3,000 PAs, sit back with an Italian beef, and watch the show.
On the pitching side, this starting rotation should deal, even if there’s some regression from last year’s fewest-runs-allowed-in-the-AL highs. Lucas Giolito and Dylan Cease will strike out the world. Lance Lynn won’t pitch to a sub-3 ERA again, but as a No. 3 or 4 starter, he’ll do. The organization must have enough faith in Michael Kopech returning to his natural role as a starter after missing 2019 and 2020. Otherwise they wouldn’t have let Carlos Rodon and his 185 strikeouts walk.
Last season this team managed 93 wins despite an 18-24 mark in one-run games, suggesting the ChiSox were victims of some unluckiness. They played to a 99-win run differential. Regression in run prevention should be expected … and should be offset by an uptick in run production. Full seasons from all their contributors and Kopech emerging as a true starter, and 91.5 should be trivial for this squad. An ALCS that features Chicago should surprise no one.
Minnesota Twins Win Total
2021 regular-season record: 73-89 (5th place)
2022 win total projection: 81.5
Key additions: SP Chris Archer, SP Dylan Bundy, SS Carlos Correa, SP Sonny Gray, C Gary Sanchez, INF Gio Urshela
Key subtractions: RP Alex Colomé, 3B Josh Donaldson, C Mitch Garver, SS Andrelton Simmons, SP Michael Pineda
There’s a very real chance Minnesota acquired you, your cat, and your Xbox this offseason. The Twins were so trade-happy they got shortstop Isiah Kiner-Falefa from the Rangers and traded him to the Yankees in less time than you spent watching 12 hours of basketball on St. Patrick’s Day.
The Twins signed Carlos Correa out of nowhere on a convoluted prove-it deal (despite being more than one big piece away from contention). It’s the kind of move you’d make on your fantasy team after you came home from watching 12 hours of basketball on St. Patrick’s Day.
Correa, Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco, and whatever they can get out of free-swinging returnee Miguel Sano and free-swinging newcomer Gary Sanchez gives Minnesota a solid lineup. Different story on the mound.
A rotation of Sonny Gray-Dylan Bundy-the desiccated remains of Chris Archer should credibly offset any gains the lineup makes. Bookmakers have essentially tagged the Twins to be a .500 squad, and that seems like exactly what they are. A middle-of-the-road ballclub that should finish right around its 81.5 win total. We’d shade a win or two Over if were forced to pick a side, simply from the games Minnesota will get against the Royals, Tigers, and Guardians. But when it comes to MLB win totals, we’ll sit this one out.
Detroit Tigers Win Total
2021 regular-season record: 77-85 (3rd place)
2022 win total projection: 77.5
Key additions: SS Javier Báez, C Tucker Barnhart, RP Andrew Chafin, SP Michael Pineda, SP Eduardo Rodriguez
Key subtractions: SP Matthew Boyd, RP Derek Holland, 3B Nick Quintana, SP Julio Teheran, SP José Ureña
They won’t be the Central’s best team, but at least they’re not boring.
Detroit started by jettisoning its high-risk, high-reward pitching staff (which, in practice, was more all-risk, no-reward) and bringing in veterans Eduardo Rodriguez (Boston) and Michael Pineda (Minnesota). The latter, naturally, won’t be there to start the season because he’s having work visa issues. From there, manager A.J. Hinch will run out lefty Tarik Skubal, and 24-year-old right-handers Casey Mize and Matt Manning to round out the five-man rotation.
Look, no one’s watching the Tigers for their pitching. But the offense is a different story. Adding in Javy Báez gives Detroit a 29-year-old only a couple years and two thumbs down to Mets fans removed from his 3-5 WAR seasons. Throw in two white-hot prospects — 22-year-old infielder/outfielder Spencer Torkelson and 21-year-old center fielder Riley Greene — and it’s almost enough to distract you from the fact Miguel Cabrera is still around, aging like he just watched a bunch of Nazis open the Ark of the Covenant, for the next 80 years of his contract.
The pitching won’t do the Tigers any favors. Still, just having two young prospects pushing journeymen Niko Goodrum (now with Houston) and Nomar Mazara (San Diego) out of Motown makes them watchable. And it makes them playable to this Over in the MLB win totals market.
Cleveland Guardians Win Total
2021 regular-season record: 80-82 (2nd place)
2022 win total projection: 76.5
Key additions: C Luke Maile
Key subtractions: C Wilson Ramos
This won’t be the Central’s best team … and they’re going to be kind of boring. If Jose Ramírez, Myles Straw, and Franmil Reyes filed a class-action suit for negligence, would anyone blame them?
The only new thing about this Guardians team compared with last year is the name. Maybe they couldn’t do anything to improve their offense because the rest of the division was too busy gobbling up all the talent. Last year, Cleveland was firmly an 80-win team that could pitch but couldn’t score runs, and this year they’re going to really mix it up by … being able to pitch but not score runs.
If the Twins and Tigers are the AL Central teams with question marks on the mound, the Guardians aren’t the team built to take advantage. And that thin lineup gets to face White Sox pitching 19 times. Cleveland short number in the MLB win totals market is interesting, considering the team hasn’t finished with fewer than 80 victories in a full season since 2012. Still, we’re comfortable taking this Under.
Kansas City Royals Win Total
2021 regular-season record: 74-88 (4th place)
2022 win total projection: 74.5
Key additions: RP Amir Garrett, SP Zack Greinke
Key subtractions: INF Hanser Alberto, RP Wade Davis, RP Greg Holland, SP Jakob Junis, SP Mike Minor, RP Ervin Santana
In 2010 Zack Grienke was the hottest pitcher on the trade market. The Royals shipped him away in the Lorenzo Cain deal and now, 12 years later at the end of his career, Greinke comes home. Which is great for the Royals because they have nobody else to pitch. They don’t even have Mike Minor anymore, and Mike Minor isn’t due for one of his occasional shockingly good seasons in 2022. They might tell Salvy Perez he has to chuck a few innings. Maybe they’ll go get Brett Saberhagen.
But this year isn’t about this year in Kansas City. It’s about getting top farmhand Bobby Witt Jr. to The Show and hoping the shortstop/third baseman is a better hitter than his old man was a pitcher. (If you’re too young to remember Bobby Witt Sr., don’t bother looking him up. Career 4.83 ERA guy who bounced around a million teams. He was Edwin Jackson before Edwin Jackson was Edwin Jackson.)
Between Perez, Witt, up-and-coming catcher/DH MJ Melendez, and veteran outfielder Andrew Benintendi, the Royals can cobble together a serviceable middle of the order. But on the fringes there’s not enough. We don’t love going Under 74.5, but we’d lean that direction.
