As of September 14, the five primary contenders for the two American League wild-card berths had roughly 16-19 games remaining on their regular-season schedules.
Is that enough time to harbor realistic dreams of reaching the AL postseason (short of catching fire with a lengthy winning streak)?
Which teams can least afford to tread water to close out the season?
Which ace pitcher has the availability-window—and endurance—capacity for four more starts down the stretch?
And which contenders have the easiest/most difficult schedules over the final three weeks?
Props.com breaks down the remaining work ahead for the Toronto Blue Jays, New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Oakland Athletics, and Seattle Mariners, knowing that only two of the five teams will get an opportunity to play extended October baseball.
Side note: We’re assuming the league’s three division leaders who have comfortable cushions—Tampa Bay Rays (AL East), Houston Astros (AL West), and Chicago White Sox (AL Central)—will cruise to division titles in the coming days, without incident.
All odds are courtesy of DraftKings and updated as of 5 p.m. ET on September 14.
TORONTO BLUE JAYS
RECORD: 81-63 (2nd place, AL East)
CURRENT STATUS: Wild Card #1
PLAYOFF ODDS: YES -285 / NO +235
REMAINING SCHEDULE:
2 games vs. Rays, 3 at Rays, 3 vs. Twins, 4 at Twins, 3 vs. Yankees, 3 vs. Orioles
— The Blue Jays are on a 15-2 tear since August 28, highlighted by last week’s four-game road sweep over the Yankees. This prolific run, which has been the result of offensive brilliance and rock-solid starting pitching, also has revived the MVP talk for first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (.318 average, 45 HR, 103 RBI, 114 runs, 1.018 OPS), who’s vying to become only the third American League hitter since 1967 to capture baseball’s Triple Crown.
— The Blue Jays boast a combined mark this season of 21-11 against the Yankees and Orioles, their final two opponents of the regular season.
— As to be expected from a team on a torrid hot streak, Toronto’s pitching staff ranks first in victories, first in WHIP, first in opponents’ batting average, second in strikeouts, and sixth in team ERA in September.
— Of the Blue Jays’ 18 remaining games, 11 are in Canada, where they are 9-5 since August 20.
— Toronto needs to go 11-7 to reach 92 victories. Should the Jays do that, the trailing clubs would have to post the following records to match them: Yankees 12-6, Red Sox 11-5, Mariners 14-4, Athletics 15-4.
NEW YORK YANKEES
RECORD: 80-64 (3rd place, AL East)
CURRENT STATUS: Tied for Wild Card #2
PLAYOFF ODDS: YES -190 / NO +160
REMAINING SCHEDULE:
3 games at Orioles, 3 vs. Indians, 3 vs. Rangers, 3 at Red Sox, 3 at Blue Jays, 3 vs. Rays
— The Yankees have been in free-fall mode lately, losing 13 of 17 since August 28. And yet, oddsmakers still like New York’s chances of reaching the postseason. Is this a product of the absurd hype that usually surrounds the Yankees, or do they have the ability to bounce back? It’s worth noting: New York had a blistering 25-5 record from July 27 to August 27.
— The stretch-run schedule shapes up well for the Bronx Bombers, with half of their 18 remaining games against non-playoff contenders (Baltimore, Cleveland, Texas). It’s also likely that Tampa Bay will clinch the AL East and the AL’s No. 1 seed before its season-ending series in New York. If the Rays do that, will they rest their starters or try to keep their division rivals out of the October tournament?
— New York’s pitching has been noticeably shaky of late, and the stats bear that out: In September, the Yankees rank last in the AL in walks allowed, 13th in WHIP, 11th in ERA, and 10th in opponents’ batting average.
— The Yankees have an ace in the hole (literally) as they try to lock up a playoff spot: Top pitcher Gerrit Cole (14-7, 2.78 ERA, 217/34 K-BB) could start as many as five games down the stretch (he takes the mound today vs. Baltimore).
BOSTON RED SOX
RECORD: 81-65 (4th place, AL East)
CURRENT STATUS: Tied for Wild Card #2
PLAYOFF ODDS: YES -130 / NO +110
REMAINING SCHEDULE:
2 games at Mariners, 3 vs. Orioles, 3 at Orioles, 2 vs. Mets, 3 vs. Yankees, 3 at Nationals
— The Red Sox couldn’t have asked for an easier schedule down the stretch. Five of their final 16 games involve teams that won’t even sniff the postseason (and as such those squads might start mailing it in).
— Boston could put a major dent in Seattle’s wild-card chances over the next two nights, as the clubs complete a three-game set in the Pacific Northwest. Wining both contests, or even managing a split, would go a long way toward the Red Sox keeping the Mariners at arm’s length.
For example, if the Red Sox beat the Mariners Tuesday and Wednesday, then go 8-6 to close the regular season, Seattle would have to catch fire to the tune of 13-3 in the final 16 games.
— The Red Sox should feel comfortable being in a virtual tie with the Yankees right now. Boston owns a 10-6 head-to-head advantage this season, and the final series between the clubs will be played in Boston (September 24-26).
SEATTLE MARINERS
RECORD: 78-66 (2nd place, AL West)
CURRENT STATUS: 2 games back of Wild Card #2
PLAYOFF ODDS: YES +1500 / NO -5000
REMAINING SCHEDULE:
2 games vs. Red Sox, 3 at Royals, 4 at Athletics, 3 vs. Athletics, 3 vs. Angels, 3 at Angels
— The odds are already stacked against the Athletics and Mariners both claiming wild cards, given their current deficits and dearth of games remaining. Beyond that, with seven head-to-head meetings slated over the next 15 days, it’s eminently likely these AL West rivals will eliminate one another from postseason contention … unless one team sweeps all seven games.
— The Mariners edged Boston 5-4 on Monday and, as noted above, they likely need to complete a sweep of the three-game series to have a realistic shot at ending the longest postseason drought in major professional team sports (Seattle hasn’t reached the playoffs since 2001).
— Don’t expect the Mariners to embark on a Blue Jays-esque hot streak down the stretch; their longest winning streak this season is five games.
OAKLAND ATHLETICS
RECORD: 77-66 (3rd place, AL West)
CURRENT STATUS: 2.5 games back of Wild Card #2
PLAYOFF ODDS: YES +1000 / NO -1600
REMAINING SCHEDULE:
3 games at Royals, 3 at Angels, 3 at Mariners, 3 vs. Mariners, 3 vs. Astros, 3 at Astros
— Do the Athletics have enough proverbial “runway” to overtake the Blue Jays, Yankees, or Red Sox in the final days? They do if they play like they did during a 13-game winning streak in mid-April.
— Assuming Oakland does catch fire, the schedule suggests its chances of returning to the playoffs aren’t as fleeting as you might think. The Royals and Angels are a combined 16 games below .500. Meanwhile, the Astros might have the AL West crown (and No. 2 playoff seed) wrapped up before hosting the A’s in the season’s final series (and therefore be resting starters).
— Oakland’s postseason hopes also hinge on figuring out how to beat Seattle, as they’ve dropped eight of 12 games to the M’s this season.
