Unlike in the American League, where Shohei Ohtani has had the MVP award locked up essentially since the All-Star break, the NL MVP odds have plenty of intrigue.
With assistance from PointsBet USA sports analyst Mike Korn, Props.com examines the evolving chase for NL MVP, particularly the battle that’s brewing between two superstars with $300 million-plus contracts.
National League MVP Odds
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | San Diego Padres | SS | -223 |
| Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | OF | +400 |
| Max Muncy | Los Angeles Dodgers | 1B | +850 |
| Freddie Freeman | Atlanta Braves | 1B | +900 |
| Joey Votto | Cincinnati Reds | 1B | +2500 |
| Trea Turner | Los Angeles Dodgers | SS | +2800 |
| Austin Riley | Atlanta Braves | 3B | +4000 |
| Juan Soto | Washington Nationals | OF | +5000 |
| Nicholas Castellanos | Cincinnati Reds | OF | +8000 |
| Brandon Crawford | San Francisco Giants | SS | +8000 |
Odds via the PointsBet USA Sportsbook on September 8, 2021
Bryce Harper, Fernando Tatis Jr. Fueling NL MVP Action
BRYCE HARPER – OF – PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
STATS (as of September 8): 29 HR, 68 RBI, 82 runs, .303 batting average, .417 OBP, 1.012 OPS
It’s hard to poke holes in Harper’s candidacy from a numbers perspective. The Philadelphia Phillies’ outfielder currently ranking first in OPS, second in slugging and on-base percentage, fourth in doubles, fifth in home runs, and ninth in runs among National League hitters.
The public has been clamoring for this type of bedrock consistency from Harper for years, and now the 2015 NL MVP is delivering with the second-best all-around season of his career. Plenty of bettors at PointsBet have responded to Harper’s late-summer offensive surge by backing him to claim another MVP.
“Harper’s now second behind only Fernando Tatis Jr. in terms of bet count to win NL MVP,” Korn said.
“Coming into August, Harper’s odds were +10000—his longest all year. That quickly dropped to +3000 in early August, then +700 come mid-August. And now he’s all the way down to +500.”
For Harper to overtake Tatis, he’ll likely need himself and his team to finish strong. Currently, the Phillies trail the Atlanta Braves by 2.5 games in the NL East. Harper can ill afford to have the Phillies fall out of playoff contention in the season’s final three weeks.
FERNANDO TATIS JR. – SS – SAN DIEGO PADRES
STATS (as of September 8): 37 HR, 86 RBI, 90 runs, .278 batting average, .366 OBP, .994 OPS
Tatis has been a popular choice among NL MVP bettors, and for good reason. As of September 8, the San Diego Padres shortstop-turned-outfielder led the NL in home runs and slugging percentage, while ranking second in OPS, third in runs, and seventh in RBI.
Those rankings become even more impressive when you realize the flamboyant superstar has been dealing with a shoulder injury that has cost him dozens of games.
So Tatis being the solid favorite in the NL MVP betting market means Korn is rooting against him, right? Not necessarily.
“Although Tatis is No. 1 in terms of bet count and liability, [PointsBet USA] would be able to have a net positive result if he wins the award,” Korn said.
The same is true if a long shot like Los Angeles Dodgers first baseman Max Muncy (31 HR, 79 RBI, 83 runs, .920 OPS) or Braves first baseman (and reigning NL MVP) Freddie Freeman (league-leader in runs scored) came from the back of the pack to win it.
“Muncy and Freeman would both yield good results if something crazy were to happen,” Korn said.
In fact, whereas PointsBet stands to take a big financial hit if (when) Ohtani wins the AL MVP award, Korn said his book has avoided the same liability for NL MVP. The main reason is that New York Mets ace Jacob deGrom has been on the sidelines for months. The two-time Cy Young winner started the year 7-2 with a historically low 1.08 ERA and 146-11 strikeout-to-walk ratio, but a midseason arm injury has taken him off the mound and out of the MVP conversation.
Korn said deGrom’s MVP odds were +4000 at PointsBet entering the 2021 season, jumped to +5000 in April, then plummeted to as low as -120 by mid-July amid a flood of pro-deGrom action from bettors.
“Harper and Tatis both offer good results for the book,” said Korn, while acknowledging a slight lean toward Harper. “We had a huge liability on Jacob deGrom, so we were able to escape one with him being injured for the majority of the second half of the season.”
A Brief History Lesson
The Harper vs. Tatis discussion must also be framed in the context of postseason viability.
As in, historically speaking, do baseball writers care more about monster individual stats or how a prospective candidate carried his team for sustained stretches of a playoff-worthy season?
Charting the last 10 NL MVPs:
- Seven winners led their teams to division titles, with Buster Posey (San Francisco Giants in 2012) and Kris Bryant (Chicago Cubs in 2016) capping their MVP campaigns with World Series championships.
- One MVP (Andrew McCutchen) helped the Pittsburgh Pirates break a 21-year postseason drought as a wild-card entrant in 2013.
- Two of the 10 most recent MVP winners failed to boost their clubs into the playoffs: Harper in 2015 (then with the Washington Nationals) and Miami Marlins outfielder Giancarlo Stanton (now with the New York Yankees).
For what it’s worth, Harper and Stanton were poster children for the “monster numbers” argument: Collectively, they averaged 51 homers, 116 RBI, and 120 runs during their MVP campaigns.