The All-Star break is finally here! The grind of the season is at its midway point, and it’s time for some dingers! Our Props team will break down their favorite home run derby props, discuss home run derby odds, and predict the winner of the upcoming competition at Truist Park in Atlanta on Tuesday.
Editor’s Note: If you’re looking for daily MLB prop bets, be sure to check out our FREE picks every day.
Best Home Run Derby Props
Eight contestants will be competing in the 2025 Home Run Derby on Monday in Atlanta. Cal Raleigh leads Major League Baseball in home runs through the break, and he has some stiff competition, including Atlanta’s Ronald Acuna. Throughout this article, we’ll poll our Props experts to find out their favorite props and predictions.
Check back throughout the weekend, as our experts will keep adding picks to this article leading up to the derby on Monday.
Home Run Derby Odds & Field
Cal Raleigh hit home run No. 38 on Friday, which puts him one dinger short of tying Barry Bonds for the most home runs in a single season before the All-Star Break in MLB history.
Jazz Chisolm was added earlier in the week, while Matt Olson will take the spot of teammate Ronald Acuna Jr.
Check out the latest home run derby props odds, courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook:
- Cal Raleigh +280
- Oneil Cruz +300
- James Wood +480
- Matt Olson +700
- Byron Buxton +900
- Junior Caminero +1000
- Brent Rooker +1000
- Jazz Chisholm +1400
Hr Derby Prediction: Finals & Outright Winner
Teoscar Hernandez edged Bobby Witt Jr. last year, 14-13. Neither of them will be competing in this year’s competition. Who ya got in 2025?
Josh Shepardson: Oneil Cruz (+400, Caesars): According to the three-year rolling park factors at Baseball Savant, left-handed batters have a park factor of 105 for homers versus 99 for homers for right-handed batters at Truist Park. While it’s not a massive advantage, and many of the homers in the Home Run Derby will be of the no-doubt variety, I’ll take any edge I can get when selecting the finalists and the winner. Home runs that squeak out and scrape the wall on their exit from the field of play count the same as the no-doubters, so any advantage is a plus. The field has four batters who will or could at left-handed – three are lefties, and Cal Raleigh is a switch-hitter. Oneil Cruz and James Wood edge out Jazz Chisholm as my favorites to reach the finals.
Per Baseball Savant, among qualified batters in 2025, Cruz is first in maximum exit velocity (122.9 miles per hour (MPH)), first in average exit velocity (96.4 MPH), and first in fly-ball/line-drive exit velocity (100.7 MPH). Wood is tied for fourth (117.9 MPH), tied for seventh (93.8 MPH), and fourth (99.4 MPH) in those respective categories among all qualified hitters and trails only Cruz in those categories among Home Run Derby participants. Cruz and Wood don’t need high-velocity heaters to turn around to launch impressive homers. They generate their own power. Ultimately, I’ll take Cruz, the Statcast Whiz, to win this year’s Home Run Derby (Cruz over Wood exact result: +2200 derby odds at FD).
Eduardo Solano: Matt Olson (+750, FanDuel): Olson led MLB with 54 home runs in 2023 and already has 17 home runs and 58 RBIs in 93 games (as of May 11) this season. Olson brings proven Derby experience and a smooth, left-handed swing built for consistent power in any ballpark. With elite pop and All-Star rhythm, he offers strong value on one of baseball’s most reliable sluggers at his home park.
Favorite Longshot Winner
Everyone loves some juicy home run derby props at long odds. Who are you making a case for as an underdog pick?
Josh Shepardson: Jazz Chisholm (+1400, FanDuel): Chisholm was the left-handed batter, not including switch-hitting Cal Raleigh, that I left out of my finals prediction. He has the longest odds to win the Home Run Derby at FanDuel Sportsbook despite having the park factor advantage over his right-handed peers. Chisholm’s Statcast data isn’t as impressive as the other participants in the Home Run Derby, but it’s still rock-solid. So, at his long odds, I’ll lean into the park factors as a reason to take a crack at Chisholm, with the added benefit of hedging opportunities as he advances.
Eduardo Solano: James Wood (+550, FanDuel): Wood has crushed 24 home runs in 94 games (as of July 11) and is already drawing Bonds-level respect with four intentional walks in a single game against the Angels last month. At 6’7″ with elite raw power, his frame and bat speed are built for Derby dominance. As a breakout star in his first full season, he’s a fearless, ascending slugger with huge value.
Best HR Derby Bet: To Make The Semifinals
Who is your favorite pick to make the semifinals?
Josh Shepardson: James Wood (-134, FanDuel): James Wood’s line isn’t a screaming value, but he’s priced third to make the semifinals, which is a relative bargain. Wood, as I belabored in my finals pick, has the benefit of being a left-handed hitter in Truist Park. And, again, Wood’s Statcast data is elite and trails only Cruz’s among Home Run Derby participants.
Eduardo Solano: Jazz Chisholm Jr. (+140, FanDuel): Chisholm has flashed elite power with 17 home runs and a .522 slugging percentage in just 63 games (as of July 11), thriving in his first full season with the Yankees. His rare mix of bat speed and flair makes him a dangerous sleeper pick to break out in a Derby setting.
Who Will Hit The Longest Home Run?
Temperatures are sure to be HOT in Atlanta at the HR derby. Who will hit the longest bomb?
Josh Shepardson: James Wood (+400, Caesars): While Oneil Cruz is justifiably the favorite to hit the longest homer, his +160 line at Caesars Sportsbook is much too chalky, and Wood’s is a more appealing +400, despite having the second-shortest odds. The gap between Cruz’s Wood’s top exit velocity and fly-ball/line-drive exit velocity isn’t large enough to pass up the value Wood’s +400 line provides gamblers with.
Eduardo Solano: Oneil Cruz (+140, DraftKings): Cruz generates elite exit velocity with a 6-foot-7 frame and lightning-quick bat speed. With raw, untapped power and effortless launch, he’s built to unleash a Derby-best moonshot.
Favorite Home Run Derby Moment
There are so many memorable moments in home run derby history. What’s your favorite all-time competition or moment?
Josh Shepardson: Josh Hamilton’s 28-homer first-round performance at Yankee Stadium in 2008 was my favorite Home Run Derby moment. Hamilton’s path to the Majors was wild, getting selected in the Rule 5 Draft with limited minor-league experience because of failed drug tests in the minors. It shouldn’t have come as a surprise that a player who seamlessly transitioned to the Majors with such little experience in the minors would put on a show in the Home Run Derby.
Hamilton drilled majestic shot after majestic shot, including one that traveled an estimated 518 feet. He also swatted 13 homers in a row during his first-round outburst. Sure, Hamilton didn’t win the Home Run Derby that season, but his performance was one for the ages.
Eduardo Solano: Aaron Judge in 2017. Judge stormed into Miami in 2017 with 30 home runs before the All-Star Break, instantly capturing attention not just with volume, but with jaw-dropping power few had seen.
Judge didn’t just meet expectations—he crushed them. He launched nearly two miles worth of home runs, including 16 with exit velocities of at least 115 mph and four that traveled over 500 feet, peaking with a 513-foot moonshot. He made history as the first rookie to win the Derby outright.
