We asked our Props analyst, Justin Bales, to come up with his best NFL ladder bets for Week 4’s main slate.
If you’re not familiar with this kind of play, don’t worry. We’ll break it down. A ladder bet is essentially betting on a prop at multiple lines with the odds getting progressively larger the further up the ladder you go.
Don’t Look Down – NFL Week 4 Main Slate Ladder Bets
We’ve done the research for you here and below we’ll dive into all of the rationale for these NFL ladder bets for Week 4.
Andy Dalton Passing Yards Ladder
It’s a bit odd how poorly Bryce Young translated to the NFL, especially knowing how well Dalton threw in his first game. He threw for 319 yards with 3 touchdowns on 38 attempts against the Las Vegas Raiders.
The key to Dalton’s success is that he was kept clean on 33 of his 38 attempts. He averaged 9.5 yards per attempt on those throws. He also averaged a ridiculous 10.5 yards per attempt when he wasn’t blitzed by Las Vegas.
There are two major reasons this is important for this week. First, Dalton’s historically been better when he isn’t blitzed and isn’t pressured. In his last season where he saw significant action, he averaged a healthy 7.8 yards per attempt when kept clean.
Dalton gets a great matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals this week. They currently rank 22nd in blitz rate (21.1%) this season. Cincinnati also ranks 24th in the NFL in pressure rate (18.9%) in 2024.
The Bengals haven’t allowed a ton of passing yards this season. They’re only giving up 168.3 yards per game through the air, which ranks 24th in the NFL. More importantly, they’re giving up 7.3 yards per attempt, which is the 10th-most.
Teams aren’t throwing at a high rate against Cincinnati, but I wouldn’t have expected a ton of passing yards besides Patrick Mahomes. Still, I’m not overly concerned with this matchup for Dalton. He’s on an offense that should be throwing drastically more than others have against the Bengals.
Carolina should be able to keep Dalton relatively clean this week, and we saw his upside in Week 3. This is somewhat of a perfect storm for him to dominate two weeks in a row.
Where to Bet: Andy Dalton 225+ passing yards through 300+ passing yards
Jerome Ford Rushing Yard Ladder
Ford’s seen mixed results early in the 2024 season. He boasts 145 yards and 1 touchdown on only 29 carries. He’s also posted 76 yards after contact, although he only has 36 breakaway yards thus far.
Cleveland gets an elite matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders. They’re giving up the third-most rushing yards (131.0) per game to opposing running backs. The Raiders are also giving up a league-high 5.4 yards per carry.
Las Vegas has struggled with tackling this season. They’ve missed the second-most tackles (36) in the NFL through 3 games. Ford’s also good at evading defenders, posting 5 forced missed tackles on his 29 carries.
We’ve seen JK Dobbins, Derrick Henry, and Chuba Hubbard all dominate Las Vegas this season. The only major concern with Ford is that he doesn’t generally get a massive workload. That said, Cleveland is a small favorite in this game.
Ford saw over 15 carries in only four games last season. He posted 80+ yards in three of those games, including 100+ yards in two of them.
The odds are too good on a player who has high-end breakaway speed.
Where to Bet: Jerome Ford 50+ rushing yards through 90+ rushing yards
Mike Gesicki Receiving Yards Ladder
Gesicki is technically a tight end, but he’s really more of a slot receiver. He’s posted 14 receptions for 156 yards on 18 targets through three weeks. He’s also played 39 of his 64 snaps in the slot with 15 more coming out wide.
Gesicki’s flashed early in his Cincinnati career, posting 91 yards against the Kansas City Chiefs. He’s seen a 30.5% target share on his routes run, although I’m not sure he can keep that up with a healthy Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.
Gesicki gets a great matchup against the Carolina Panthers this week, though. They’ve struggled against the tight end in 2024, allowing the eighth-most receiving yards (50.7) per game to the position. The Panthers are also giving up the sixth-most targets (7.3) to tight ends in 2024.
It is important to give an explanation about his role in the offense, though. Earlier I said he’s more of a slot receiver than a tight end, but I also gave stats guarding tight ends. It’s because although he plays out of the slot, Carolina is still going to guard him as a tight end rather than using their slot corner against him.
I think there’s better than a small chance that this game could turn into a bit of a shootout, and I don’t believe the 0-3 Bengals are going to be conservative unless they’re winning by a massive margin. Instead, they should be attacking for four quarters, and Gesicki is a sneaky option at a surprisingly low total.
Where to Bet: Mike Gesicki 25+ receiving yards through 70+ receiving yards
