Each week, Props.com will highlight a handful of teams that oddsmakers currently believe have the best shot of playing in the four-team College Football Playoff — with the Orange and Cotton bowls hosting the semifinals on Dec. 31. While each contender’s ranking in the Associated Press Top 25 poll is included, this exercise is all about where these teams stand in the betting market.
Odds courtesy of DraftKings and updated as of 11:30 a.m. ET on Oct. 6.
Alabama Crimson Tide
Record: 5-0
Ranking: 1st (last week: 1st)
College Football Playoff odds: Yes -800 / No +500
Why Alabama still controls the college football universe:
— The Crimson Tide have a Heisman Trophy frontrunner at quarterback (Bryce Young), a one-man wrecking crew at tailback (Brian Robinson, who last week rolled for four TDs vs. Ole Miss), a cluster of 5-star prospects at receiver (including Jameson Williams), and a defense that has surrendered 24 or fewer points in 13 of its last 15 games. Throw in a less-than-taxing schedule down the stretch, and Alabama likely will be perfect heading into its Iron Bowl showdown with Auburn (Nov. 27 on the road).
— When the season started, this week’s game at Texas A&M had upset potential. But that’s no longer the case. DraftKings has Alabama listed as a 17.5-point road favorite against a now-unranked and offensively inept Aggies squad that has scored 32 combined points in consecutive losses to Arkansas and Mississippi State. If history repeats itself Saturday—the Crimson Tide have won the last six meetings against A&M by an average of 19 points — those -800 “yes” odds will be in four-digit territory a week from now.
Georgia Bulldogs
Record: 5-0
Ranking: 2nd (last week: 2nd)
College Football Playoff odds: Yes -800 / No+475
Why Georgia has as much playoff cachet as Alabama:
— Saturday’s Georgia-Auburn clash looks fantastic, at least on paper. On the betting board? Not so much, as the talented Bulldogs are laying 14.5 points on the road. However, even if the Tigers spring the upset, Georgia might still control its playoff destiny. Simply win out the rest of the way (capturing the SEC East title in the process), topple No. 1 Alabama in the SEC title game, and the strength-of-schedule bounce would be enough to push the Dawgs into the Final Four.
— How could we be so sure that a one-loss Georgia team would snag a playoff invite? It’s simple. The SEC champion has never been denied a spot in the sport’s marquee event.
— If you believe in the axiom that defense wins championships, you might consider placing a futures bet on Georgia to win it all. Following last week’s 37-0 whitewash of previously unbeaten Arkansas, the Bulldogs defense owns top-six national rankings in scoring defense (1st overall, 4.6 points per game); total defense (1st, 178.6 yards per week); red-zone defense (5th); and team sacks (6th).
— With Oregon and Notre Dame losing last week, a pathway has opened for Alabama and Georgia to both reach the College Football Playoff — presuming the two powerhouses breeze into the SEC title game undefeated. There remain hurdles, of course — namely, if Oklahoma, Cincinnati, and/or BYU stay perfect through Championship Weekend. (With four teams currently ranked in the top 11, the Big Ten champion seems like a lock for the four-team Playoff.)
Ohio State Buckeyes
Record: 4-1
Ranking: 7th (last week: 11th)
College Football Playoff odds: Yes +150 / No -185
Why Ohio State commands great respect in the betting market:
— Even though four league rivals remain undefeated, the one-loss Buckeyes remain the betting favorite to capture the Big Ten title and represent the conference in the College Football Playoff.
— With Oregon losing to Stanford last week, Ohio State now controls its destiny for no lower than the No. 3 seed (likely avoiding the SEC champion in the semifinals). Here’s why: Over the next nine Saturdays, the Buckeyes could encounter all four teams they’re looking up at in the standings — No. 4 Penn State (home), No. 11 Michigan State (home), No. 9 Michigan (home), and No. 3 Iowa (potentially in the Big Ten championship game). Win out the rest of the way, and Ohio State will be bound for the Cotton or Orange bowls.
— Among Big Ten teams, the prodigious Buckeyes rank first overall in total offense (555.6 yards per game), passing offense (336.2 yards per game), and scoring offense (45.0 points per game), along with third in rushing offense (219.4 yards per week).
Oklahoma Sooners
Record: 5-0
Ranking: 6th (last week: 6th)
College Football Playoff odds: Yes -125 / No -105
Why Oklahoma no longer requires any outside help:
— Sooners fans might want to send care packages to the Stanford and Cincinnati locker rooms. With those teams knocking off Oregon and Notre Dame last week, respectively, Oklahoma no longer has to worry about losing a beauty pageant competition to the Ducks and/or Irish, had all three teams ended the season undefeated.
— Oklahoma has been dodging bullets week after week, barely getting past a trio of non-ranked clubs (Nebraska, West Virginia, and Kansas State) by a grand total of 16 points. The Sooners also struggled to put away Tulane in their season opener. And yet, OU still controls its CFP destiny, based on this historical factoid: An undefeated champion from a Power 5 conference has never missed out on the Final Four.
So whether OU escapes upcoming foes Texas, Baylor, Iowa State, and Oklahoma State by one or 50 points, it likely won’t matter in the eyes of the 13-member CFP committee.
Cincinnati Bearcats
Record: 4-0
Ranking: 5th (last week: 7th)
College Football Playoff odds: Yes +210 / No -280
Why Cincinnati could have a tricky pathway to crashing the playoff party:
— Cincinnati’s double-digit road victories over Indiana and previously undefeated Notre Dame confirmed its standing as a national-title dark horse. However, because they face lightly-regarded American Athletic Conference opponents the rest of the way — only one currently ranked team, No. 24 SMU, remains on the schedule — the Bearcats likely won’t be able to match any Power 5 CFP contender in terms of strength of schedule or national TV exposure. These are difficult components to overcome once the CFP committee starts breaking down team résumés in detailed fashion. So how can Cincinnati best help its chances going forward? Win by big margins, starting this week against Temple, against whom the Bearcats are 29-point favorites.
— Cincinnati fans should be worried about how the CFP committee might view No. 10 BYU as an undefeated independent by season’s end. The Cougars already possess three victories over Pac-12 teams (Arizona, Arizona State, and Utah), and have impending key dates with Boise State (home), Baylor (road), Washington State (road), Virginia (home), and USC (road).
At first blush, BYU might have a stronger schedule than Cincinnati; and in the CFP committee’s eyes, average victory margin could unofficially swing that vote — if/when pitting the two schools against one another for a playoff berth.
Iowa Hawkeyes
Record: 5-0
Ranking: 3rd (last week: 5th)
College Football Playoff odds: Yes +340 / No -500
Why Iowa remains a must-watch playoff contender:
— From a Top 25 perspective, Iowa has the easiest remaining slate of any CFP contender. After No. 4 Penn State (this week), the schedule includes trips to struggling Wisconsin, Northwestern, and Nebraska, and then home dates with Purdue, Minnesota, and Illinois.
— Iowa State has fallen out of the AP Top 25 poll. However, Iowa still gets credit for beating its in-state rival during September, a time when the Cyclones were ranked in the top 10. This out-of-conference road victory, along with Saturday’s high-stakes clash with Penn State, should be enough to keep Iowa’s strength-of-schedule quotient on solid footing, even though the Hawkeyes won’t encounter Ohio State, Michigan, or Michigan State during the regular season.
Michigan Wolverines
Record: 5-0
Ranking: 9th (last week: 14th)
College Football Playoff odds: Yes +360 / No -550
Why Michigan has a clear — but hardly easy — path to a playoff berth:
— This current Michigan team represents a throwback to the 1970s and 80s, a time when the Wolverines predominantly ran the ball, chewed the clock, and rarely passed in normal down-and-distance situations. Michigan leads all Big Ten clubs in rushing offense (255.0 yards per game), and the defense has yet to surrender 18 or more points in a game all season.
— Michigan’s remaining strength-of-schedule offers a slew of tent-pole opportunities, beginning with Saturday’s prime-time road matchup with Nebraska. After that, there are high-profile road trips to Michigan State (Oct. 30) and Penn State (Nov. 13) … and then the Wolverines must address the elephant in the room: Ohio State.
Charting the last 19 head-to-head meetings through 2019 — the border rivals didn’t meet last year, due to COVID-19 protocols —Michigan is 2-17 against the Buckeyes, including losing the last eight in a row. Since 2014, Ohio State’s average victory margin is 18.1 points.
Bottom line: If Michigan runs the proverbial table during the regular season, then wins the Big Ten title game (regardless of opponent), the Wolverines would garner an automatic berth in the College Football Playoff. (There are even some one-loss scenarios to ponder down the road, but that’s a hypothetical for another day.)
Penn State Nittany Lions
Record: 5-0
Ranking: 4th (last week: 4th)
College Football Playoff odds: Yes +500 / No -800
Why Penn State faces a high degree of difficulty — no matter what happens this week:
— Penn State’s treacherous path to the College Football Playoff ostensibly begins this weekend. After Saturday’s trip to No. 3 Iowa, it’ll be a steady stream of heavyweights in the form of No. 7 Ohio State (road), No. 9 Michigan (home), and No. 11 Michigan State (road). And if they get through that gauntlet unscathed, the Nittany Lions could face a rematch with Iowa in the Big Ten title game.
— Does Penn State have enough offensive punch to keep up with the incoming torrent of power programs? Among Big Ten clubs, Penn State ranks no higher than sixth in total offense (6th, 418.6 yards per game), rushing offense (11th, 132.6 yards per week), and scoring offense (7th, 30.0 points per game).
