Around this time each year, South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews posts his College Football Games of the Year odds. It’s always a revealing experiment, drawing plenty of sharp minds to Andrews’ shop on the south end of Las Vegas Boulevard.
The 2022 release — 99 games in all — happened Friday, June 4. For a couple of hours, money flew fast and furious on many of those matchups. And line movement was fast and furious, as well.
Props.com talked with Andrews and professional bettor Paul Stone about this annual South Point sojourn.
2022 College Football Games of the Year Odds
| Matchup | Date | Opening Spread | Current Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama at Texas | Saturday, Sept. 10 | Alabama -12 | Alabama -14 |
| Baylor at BYU | Saturday, Sept. 10 | BYU -8 | BYU -4.5 |
| Navy at Air Force | Saturday, Oct. 1 | Air Force -19 | Air Force -12 |
| Oklahoma vs Texas* | Saturday, Oct. 8 | Oklahoma -7 | Oklahoma -4.5 |
| Texas A&M at Alabama | Saturday, Oct. 8 | Alabama -13.5 | Alabama -15 |
| USC at Utah | Saturday, Oct. 15 | Utah -12 | Utah -7 |
| Alabama at Tennessee | Saturday, Oct. 15 | Alabama -6.5 | Alabama -10.5 |
| Wake Forest at Louisville | Saturday, Oct. 29 | Louisville -8 | Louisville -4 |
| Clemson at Notre Dame | Saturday, Nov. 5 | Notre Dame -1 | Clemson -1 |
| Michigan at Ohio State | Saturday, Nov. 26 | Ohio State -13.5 | Ohio State -13.5 |
Odds on select games via South Point sportsbook and updated as of 6:30 p.m. ET on June 4.
* Neutral-site game at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas
Bettors Back Bama
It’s not like Andrews doesn’t respect Alabama. After all, the Crimson Tide have reached the College Football Playoff in seven of the eight years the format has existed.
“I had Alabama way up there in my power rankings, but I had Ohio State No. 1,” Andrews said.
The initial slew of sharp Bama money has Andrews reassessing his ratings, with the Tide perhaps a co-No. 1 with Ohio State. Bettors could wager up to $2,000 a pop, two bets at a time before having to go to the back of the line to repeat that process. And the Crimson Tide certainly took their share of early cash. Andrews pointed to one game in specific.
“Alabama opened -6.5 at Tennessee,” Andrews said of an Oct. 15 SEC clash. “Now I’m up to -10.5.”
But that wasn’t the only notable Bama move. The first matchup listed on the South Point College Football Games of the Year odds sheet — Alabama vs. Texas on Sept. 10 — is already up to Crimson Tide -14 from a -12 opener. Texas A&M at Alabama — sure to be extra spicy on Oct. 8 in the wake of the recent Jimbo Fisher-Nick Saban brouhaha — has gone from Alabama -13.5 to -15.
“I took Alabama -13.5. I think it’s a statement game for Alabama. They lost last year at College Station as an 18-point favorite,” Stone said, alluding to the Crimson Tide’s 41-38 setback in October — Saban’s only regular-season defeat in 2021.
In the Nov. 26 Iron Bowl, Alabama opened as a hefty 18-point home chalk vs. Auburn and is already out to -21.
More Big Movers
A battle of service academies took honors for the largest odds shift on Day 1 in the College Football Games of the Year odds market at South Point.
“The biggest mover of all was Navy vs. Air Force,” Andrews said of an Oct. 1 showdown on the Falcons’ home field. “It opened at Air Force -19, and I’m down to -12.”
Stone leaned into that game, firing immediately while Navy was still +19.
“It’s just based on the fact that service academy games are slow, methodical, option football,” Stone said. “It’s a short game, they know each other’s unique style. That just seemed like a big number in this game.”
Other big moves Andrews noted:
- USC at Utah, Oct. 15, with the host Utes tumbling from -12 to -7
- Wake Forest at Louisville, Oct. 29, with the Cardinals dropping from -8 to -4 at home
Stone pointed to another Wake Forest tilt, a home battle against North Carolina on Nov. 12. The game opened a pick ’em and moved to Demon Deacons -2.5.
“I took Wake Forest pick. I made Wake Forest an 8.5-point favorite over North Carolina,” Stone said. “North Carolina loses [QB] Sam Howell, so they won’t be better on offense this year. And they didn’t play good defense last year.”
Respected Money
Andrews acknowledged that, with a slew of sizable wagers coming in right away, he and his risk team quickly adjust the lines. As noted above, those adjustments can be quite significant when a team draws a consistent stream of sharp action, be it $2,000 max bets or $500-$1,000 wagers.
“These guys who bet you that first day are really sharp, so you’ve got to give them a ton of respect,” Andrews said. “Judging by the handicappers’ [wagers], the teams that I underrated are Alabama, Washington, Utah State, Navy, USC, and Wake Forest. The teams I overrated: Tennessee, Iowa, BYU, Michigan State, Oklahoma, Notre Dame, and Louisville.”
A few of those perceived overrated/underrated teams showed up among the aforementioned big early line moves. That said, bettors’ disdain for one particular team didn’t really surprise Andrews. “It’s a joke I make every year — I overrate Oklahoma,” he said. “It’s an annual rite of summer.”
Sharp bettors (including Stone) faded the Sooners multiple times. Among the noteworthy Oklahoma moves:
- From -14 to -11 hosting Kansas State on Sept. 24
- -7 to -4.5 vs. Texas on Oct. 8 in the annual neutral-site Red River Rivalry
- -14 to -11.5 hosting Baylor on Nov. 5
- -13 to -10 hosting Oklahoma State in the Bedlam game Nov. 1
“In my opinion, Chris had Oklahoma overrated. I actually took four of the Sooners’ opponents,” Stone said. “The Sooners lost a lot of offensive firepower that left with [coach] Lincoln Riley to go to Southern Cal.”
Surprise Selections
“I’m high on Tennessee and BYU this year,” Andrews said. “I was surprised that they got bet against so much.”
Alabama-Tennessee was the most notable case of wiseguys fading the Vols. Additionally, Tennessee moved from +12 to +14 at defending national champion Georgia on Nov. 5. Meanwhile, Brigham Young dropped from -8 to -4.5 at home vs. Baylor on Sept. 10; fell from -24 to -20 for a Sept. 29 home battle vs. Utah State; and dipped to -3 from -5 at home vs. Arkansas on Oct. 15.
Andrews acknowledged that the transfer portal could lead to significant changes in his power rankings — and therefore the point spreads — in several games. Specifically, USC could be a team to watch out for under new coach Riley. But at the moment, Andrews isn’t sold on the early support for the Trojans.
“USC garnered a lot of money, and I have lot of money in the futures book on USC,” Andrews said. “USC has a lot of challenges this year. At this time, I think the Trojans are overrated. But that’s just one man’s humble opinion. We’ll see what happens.”
In addition to bettors grabbing the points with USC at Utah, the Trojans moved from -4 to -6 at Stanford on Sept. 10; from +5 to +3 at UCLA on Nov. 19; and from +5 to +3 hosting Notre Dame on Nov. 26.
Fiddle With the Middle
Stone put himself in a nice position for the USC-Utah matchup.
“In mid-May, I got Utah +1.5 vs. Southern Cal at FanDuel in Louisiana. Coming back, I took USC +12 in the same game at South Point,” he said. “One of the goals of betting these games this early, especially with the widespread legalization of sports betting, is finding books with aggressive numbers.”
And Andrews has no issue with that whatsoever.
“I know some other books had some numbers up. We totally ignored them; didn’t look at them at all,” Andrews said. “We believed in our numbers and didn’t want to be influenced by others at all.”
While several max $2,000 plays came in on many matchups, Andrews said most of the pros were firing $1,000 at a time.
“But a dime bet, putting their money up for as long as six months, I think that’s significant in a situation like this,” he said.