This column is all about breakout MLB players to target in the coming days. We’ll help you get ahead of the oddsmakers, which can also lead to identifying some contrarian DFS picks!
No matter how talented a hitter, there are always spells during a long MLB season where many of their metrics indicate they’re doing everything right, but the results they’re producing are anything but.
These rough stretches are often accompanied by abnormally low BABIP (Batting Average of Balls in Play) figures, and when we combine those scenarios with several other numbers that would appear to portend success at the plate, we can sometimes get ahead as prop bettors in identifying batters who may be due for a reversal of fortune.
In Simmering Sluggers, we’ll aim to highlight five such examples each week for the remainder of the season, examining a suite of key numbers over a reasonable sample size in an attempt to pinpoint such opportunities.
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We’re seeking players who’ve had a line-drive rate – which is normally highly correlated to elevated batting average over time – of at least 20.0%, along with a BABIP of .250 or less, a strikeout rate of 20.0% or less, and a hard-contact rate of over 30.0% at minimum during a sample that covers at least their last 30 plate appearances.
First, a quick look at how our five selections from last week performed:
- Bo Naylor, CLE: .111/.333/.111 slash line, three walks, one RBI (12 PAs)
- Mookie Betts, LAD: .400/.464/.520 slash line, one HR, one RBI, three walks, four runs (28 PAs)
- Marcus Semien, TEX (suffered foot injury on 8/21, on IL): .333/.400/.333 slash line, one walk, one RBI, one run (10 PAs)
- Mark Vientos, NYM: .357/.419/.929 slash line, four doubles, four home runs, nine RBI, two walks, one HBP, six runs (31 PAs)
- Mike Yastrzemski, KCR: .286/.375/.524 slash line, two doubles, one home run, two RBI, three walks, four runs (24 PAs)
Breakout MLB Players: Unlucky Hitters Due To Bounce Back
Here’s this week’s five hard-luck hitters primed for potential turnarounds:
Shohei Ohtani, LAD
28.1% line-drive rate
.207 BABIP
17.3% strikeout rate
59.4% hard-contact rate (52 PAs)
Schedule next 7 days: vs. CIN- 8/26, 8/27; vs. ARI- 8/29, 8/30, 8/31
It’s odd to see Ohtani in any type of extended slump, but luck has definitely not been on his side over the last couple of weeks.
Despite an excellent line-drive rate and massive hard-contact rate, the two-way star’s .207 BABIP has led to just a .220 average in this 52-plate-appearance span.
Ohtani has cleared the fence on three occasions and has five extra-base hits overall in that sample. Yet, given his batted-ball percentages, he should be enjoying exponentially more success than he has, especially considering he also has an impressively modest strikeout rate.
The slugger will be at home over the next seven days, where he has a 1.016 OPS across 301 plate appearances going into Tuesday’s action.
Lourdes Gurriel, ARI
21.6% line-drive rate
.250 BABIP
19.2% strikeout rate
32.4% hard-contact rate (52 PAs)
Schedule next 7 days: @MIL- 8/26, 8/27, 8/28; @LAD- 8/29, 8/30, 8/31; vs. TEX- 9/1
Gurriel has a career-low 14.0% strikeout rate this season, and although that’s actually been a bit elevated during the last couple of weeks, he’s still running into some below-average luck when putting the ball in play.
The veteran slugger does have five homers in the sample cited above, but he’s otherwise hitting just .200 (8-for-40) with respect to his non-HR at-bats.
Gurriel’s line-drive rate particularly hints that he should be seeing more balls fall in, and even though he has some tough pitching matchups upcoming, a continuation of his recent batted-ball trends could lead to more singles and doubles in addition to the occasional long ball.
Otto Lopez, MIA
23.5% line-drive rate
.235 BABIP
13.6% strikeout rate
32.4% hard-contact rate (44 PAs)
Schedule next 7 days: vs. ATL- 8/26, 8/27; @NYM- 8/28, 8/29, 8/30, 8/31; @WAS- 9/1
A Marlins player continues our list of breakout MLB players to target.
Lopez isn’t hitting safely as often as during his 2024 debut campaign in Miami, as he’s sporting a batting average 30 points lower than last year’s .270 figure going into Tuesday’s action.
A big drop in overall BABIP for the season is unsurprisingly a culprit – Lopez has a .261 season BABIP, compared to a .318 figure last season – and this two-week sample cited above is an exacerbated microcosm of how a lot of his year has gone.
Lopez has been making outstanding contact over the last two weeks and therefore deserves much better than the measly .200 average he’s mustered in the same span.
His metrics profile definitely suggests better luck should be imminent, even if he just nudges his BABIP up to its season-long level.
Vinnie Pasquantino, KCR
21.4% line-drive rate
.235 BABIP
16.7% strikeout rate
40.5% hard-contact rate (54 PAs)
Schedule next 7 days: @CWS- 8/26, 8/27; @DET- 8/29, 8/30, 8/31
Pasquantino has actually been on a home-run tear over the last couple of weeks, slugging a whopping eight during the sample cited above. However, a lot of the non-HR contact he’s made hasn’t yielded positive results, as he has just a .190 average (8-for-42) in that sample when factoring out the round-trippers.
Assuming Pasquantino continues to square up as well as he has while keeping his strikeout rate down, we should see many more of base knocks in the coming games, especially considering his current long-ball rate is impossible to sustain over an extended period.
Warming Bernabel, COL
21.9% line-drive rate
.226 BABIP
12.5% strikeout rate
40.6% hard-contact rate (40 PAs)
Schedule next 7 days: @HOU- 8/26, 8/27, 8/28; vs. CHC- 8/29, 8/30, 8/31; vs. SFG- 9/1
Bernabel is putting together a very impressive rookie year overall that includes a .286 average and .814 OPS, but those numbers have come despite a run of difficult at-bats over the last couple of weeks.
The talented infielder has just a .216 average and .275 OBP over the sample cited above, and as is evident, neither his batted-ball metrics nor his contact rate during that span are to blame.
The fact that four of Bernabel’s next seven games are at Coors Field will certainly help his chances of a turnaround, especially considering he owns a .354 average and .975 OPS there across 51 plate appearances to date.
While his road numbers so far have been middling over a small sample, it’s worth noting Bernabel proved a very consistent hitter over his long minor-league career, as most recently corroborated by his .301 average and .806 OPS over 75 games at Triple-A Albuquerque this season.
Bernabel is one of my favorite breakout MLB players to target this week.
