This column is all about breakout MLB players to target in the coming days. We’ll help you get ahead of the oddsmakers, which can also lead to identifying some contrarian DFS picks!
No matter how talented a hitter, there are always spells during a long MLB season where many of their metrics indicate they’re doing everything right, but the results they’re producing are anything but.
These rough stretches are often accompanied by abnormally low BABIP (Batting Average of Balls in Play) figures, and when we combine those scenarios with several other numbers that would appear to portend success at the plate, we can sometimes get ahead as prop bettors in identifying batters who may be due for a reversal of fortune.
In Simmering Sluggers, we’ll aim to highlight five such examples each week for the remainder of the season, examining a suite of key numbers over a reasonable sample size in an attempt to pinpoint such opportunities.
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We’re seeking players who’ve had a line-drive rate – which is normally highly correlated to elevated batting average over time – of at least 20.0%, along with a BABIP of .250 or less, a strikeout rate of 20.0% or less, and a hard-contact rate of over 30.0% at minimum during a sample that covers at least their last 30 plate appearances.
First, a quick look at how our five selections from last week performed:
- Shohei Ohtani, LAD: .211/.318/.211 slash line, three walks, one RBI, two runs (22 PAs)
- Lourdes Gurriel, ARI (exited Monday’s game early with knee injury): .208/.240/.250 slash line, one double, one walk, four runs (25 PAs)
- Otto Lopez, MIA: .276/.313/.414 slash line, one sac fly, one double, one HR, seven RBI, two walks, two runs (32 PAs)
- Vinnie Pasquantino, KCR: .176/.300/.176 slash line, three walks, two RBI, two runs (20 PAs)
- Warming Bernabel, COL (sustained knee injury, exited one game early and missed another two): .059/.111/.059 slash line, one walk, one run (18 PAs)
Breakout MLB Players: Unlucky Hitters Due To Bounce Back
Here’s this week’s five hard-luck hitters primed for potential turnarounds:
Kerry Carpenter, DET
- 33.3% line-drive rate
- .242 BABIP
- 19.1% strikeout rate
- 48.5% hard-contact rate (47 PAs)
Schedule next 7 days: vs. NYM- 9/2, 9/3; vs. CWS- 9/5, 9/6, 9/7
Carpenter has seen an overall downturn in his slash line this season, although he still sports an impressive .504 slugging percentage entering play on Sept. 2, a byproduct of having laced 43 of his 95 hits for extra bases.
The lefty-swinging slugger has seen a significant drop in BABIP from a season-long perspective, going from .303 or better in the first three seasons of his career to .278.
There’s definitely been some misfortune involved, as Carpenter’s season-long figure of a 21.1% line-drive rate is actually a career high. These past two weeks have been an even bigger outlier, considering Carpenter’s line-drive rate has been elite and he’s also been knocking the cover off the ball in terms of hard contact.
Yet, all that squaring up has done is get Carpenter to a measly .190 average in that same span, something that should have a good chance of changing in the coming games.
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Dansby Swanson, CHC
- 28.2% line-drive rate
- .250 BABIP
- 15.1% strikeout rate
- 48.7% hard-contact rate (53 PAs)
Schedule next 7 days: vs. ATL- 9/2, 9/3; vs. WAS- 9/5, 9/6, 9/7; @ATL- 9/8
Swanson has gotten back over the 20-homer mark this season after dipping to 16 in 149 games last season, and his .424 slugging percentage going entering Sept. 2 play is his best since his final Braves season in 2022.
Meanwhile, Swanson’s season-long line-drive rate of 23.2% is his highest in a non-abbreviated season since 2019.
The veteran has been even better in terms of squaring up of late, absolutely blistering the ball over the last couple of weeks as his batted-ball numbers listed above corroborate.
Yet, even with an impressively modest strikeout rate as well, Swanson has seemingly left some hits on the table due to a .250 BABIP that’s 54 points lower than his season figure.
With a big week of mostly home games ahead, he should have a chance to break out if he can keep making the same type of contact.
William Contreras, MIL
- 24.5% line-drive rate
- .245 BABIP
- 17.8% strikeout rate
- 37.7% hard-contact rate (73 PAs)
Schedule next 7 days: vs. PHI- 9/3, 9/4; @PIT- 9/5, 9/6, 9/7; @TEX- 9/8
Contreras is our third formidable bat in as many entries, as the offensive-minded backstop is in the midst of another solid season at the plate that includes a .260 average and .767 OPS.
Interestingly, Contreras has both lowered his strikeout rate (18.0%) and upped his line-drive rate (19.5%) to career bests (factoring out his initial four-game MLB stint in 2020), and recently, he’s put together even better numbers in both categories.
Nevertheless, Lady Luck has been lukewarm on Contreras lately, as he has a middling .242 average in the sample cited above. If he keeps his batted-ball numbers and his strikeout rate up over his season metrics as he has recently, a more successful stretch could be in store, especially since his BABIP over the last two weeks is also 51 points below his season figure.
He draws matchups against pitchers he’s enjoyed success in the past – Aaron Nola (.730 OPS against), Ranger Suarez (.409 BAA, three HRs against), and Mitch Keller (.286/.348/.571 slash line against).
Alex Bregman, BOS
- 24.0% line-drive rate
- .200 BABIP
- 9.4% strikeout rate
- 32.0% hard-contact rate (64 PAs)
Schedule next 7 days: vs. CLE- 9/2, 9/3; @ARI- 9/5, 9/6, 9/7; @ATH- 9/8
When factoring in all the metrics we typically track, Bregman may be the most snake-bitten of our hard-luck bunch this week. The talented infielder is having a very productive all-around first season in Boston, but he’s had little to show for how well he’s been hitting the ball over the last two weeks of play.
Bregman is sitting on a .182 average in the sample cited above, an absurdly low figure considering how frequently.
His strikeout rate is a full 5.1% lower than his already outstanding season-long figure – and effectively he’s made contact, with his line-drive rate in the sample a full 5.0% higher than his 2025 overall number as well.
However, better days may well be ahead, even though the majority of his games over the next week won’t be at Fenway.
Bregman will still find himself in hitter-friendly environments in the form of Chase Field and Sutter Health Park and is slated for an encounter with Arizona’s Eduardo Rodriguez (.296 BAA, three HRs against).
Ernie Clement, TOR
- 23.3% line-drive rate
- .194 BABIP
- 10.5% strikeout rate
- 35.5% hard-contact rate (38 PAs)
Schedule next 7 days: @CIN- 9/2, 9/3; @NYY- 9/5, 9/6, 9/7
Clement has been a solid near-everyday player for the Blue Jays this season, mustering a .273 average and .700 OPS across a career-high 506 plate appearances.
He continues to profile as an excellent contact hitter, and as good as his 10.9% strikeout rate has been overall this season, his figure in the sample cited above is even slightly more impressive.
Clement’s line-drive rate in the last two weeks has also been an improvement on his season-long 21.8% figure, but the ball has been finding the opponent’s glove consistently when he’s put it in play.
Clement sports an anemic .171 average and .205 wOBA in the above sample, but he could be due to see the pendulum swing the other way some in the favorable hitting venues he’ll find himself in over the next several games.
