Each week, the Props crew takes a look at the upcoming NASCAR slate from a props perspective. Further below, you’ll also find some key NASCAR DFS and betting advice that may help you become a sharper NASCAR player.
Which drivers should we be targeting with our NASCAR picks each week, and why? Find out below.
Best NASCAR Props – Top NASCAR Weekly Picks
Hunting for top The Great American Getaway 400 prop bets? Our Props team has locked in their favorite NASCAR prop picks for Sunday’s race.
Let’s break down the best value plays on the board ahead of race day at Pocono Raceway.
Denny Hamlin Props – Top 5 Finish
Winning The Great American Getaway 400 at Pocono Raceway requires a unique blend of versatility, precise execution, and strategic pit work. Known as the “Tricky Triangle,” Pocono is a 2.5-mile superspeedway with only three turns—each modeled after a different track—and none of them alike.
Turn 1 is high-banked and fast, Turn 2 is narrow and awkward (inspired by Indianapolis), and Turn 3 is flat and sweeping, making car setup a challenge of compromises. Drivers must excel at adapting their braking points and cornering lines while maintaining speed on the long straightaways.
Because of its unusual layout, fuel mileage strategy, and track position are often decisive, and clean restarts become crucial due to the limited passing zones. To win at Pocono, a driver must combine raw speed with technical discipline, while the team must be sharp in timing pit stops and anticipating caution trends.
Ryan Blaney won The Great American Getaway 400 at Pocono Raceway last July, delivering a strong performance in the No. 12 Ford for Team Penske. Blaney took control of the race in the closing stages, leading the final 44 laps after capitalizing on a pit road speeding penalty that set Kyle Larson back.
Blaney then held off a hard-charging Denny Hamlin (who was seeking his eighth Pocono win), crossing the finish line 1.312 seconds ahead. Alex Bowman secured third, while William Byron and Joey Logano completed the top 5.
Blaney’s victory reinforced his strong form at Pocono, a track that demands both technical precision and sharp race strategy. His ability to time restarts perfectly and maintain consistent speed through long green-flag stretches proved decisive on the notoriously tricky three-turn layout.
Shane van Gisbergen claimed victory at the inaugural 2025 Viva México 250 at Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez, holding off Christopher Bell to capture his second career NASCAR Cup Series win. Taking the checkers at the end of the 100-lap event, van Gisbergen’s triumph not only marked a historic moment—being the first Cup race outside the U.S. since 1958—but also highlighted his exceptional road course prowess in Mexico City’s demanding layout.
Hamlin is a +450 favorite to win The Great American Getaway 400 this year. Larson is at +550, Blaney is at +750, and Byron is at +800.
Hamlin, who has the record for most NASCAR Cup series wins at Pocono with seven, is one of the most experienced and strategically savvy drivers in the NASCAR Cup Series, particularly when it comes to navigating complex tracks like Pocono Raceway.
As a seven-time winner at the “Tricky Triangle,” Hamlin’s deep understanding of its three distinct corners gives him a clear advantage in optimizing entry and exit speed, critical for maintaining momentum on the long straightaways.
His smooth driving style, exceptional throttle control, and ability to adjust his line through each unique turn help him consistently find speed where others struggle. Hamlin also excels at restart execution, which is often a deciding factor in races at Pocono given the track’s limited passing zones and tendency for late-race caution resets.
Beyond his track-specific strengths, Hamlin’s consistency, race management skills, and leadership within Joe Gibbs Racing make him a perennial threat at Pocono. His history of strong finishes at this venue—paired with a team that consistently brings fast cars to intermediate and superspeedway layouts—positions him well for another top-five result.
He has the veteran instinct to make the right pit strategy calls, stay out of trouble in traffic-heavy situations, and maximize track position when it matters most. With clean air and a strong long-run setup, Hamlin is fully capable of adding yet another strong performance at a track that has long been one of his most successful.
Pick: Denny Hamlin Top 5 Finish
Pick: Denny Hamlin to Finish Ahead of William Byron
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NASCAR Props Tips and Strategy
Betting on NASCAR has expanded far beyond picking a race winner. Prop bets — wagers on specific outcomes within a race — have become a favorite for serious bettors who want to dig deeper into the data and find more consistent edges.
Whether you’re betting on finishing positions, head-to-head matchups, stage winners, or manufacturer props, understanding the right stats and strategy can turn casual wagers into calculated plays.
Here’s a complete guide to improving as a NASCAR props bettor.
What Are NASCAR Prop Bets?
Prop bets in NASCAR focus on performance-based outcomes for drivers or manufacturers, rather than the overall winner. Common NASCAR prop markets include:
- Top 3 / Top 5 / Top 10 Finishes
- Head-to-Head Matchups
- Group Matchups (Speed Lanes)
- Stage Winners
- Winning Manufacturer
- Over/Under Finishing Position
- Race Specials (e.g. Most Laps Led, Number of Cautions)
Books offer different variations depending on the event’s size. Marquee races like the Daytona 500 typically offer a wider range of props.
Track-Specific Performance Is Key
Not all NASCAR tracks are created equal — and neither are drivers. Some racers consistently thrive on superspeedways, while others dominate road courses or short tracks.
Track types to know:
- Superspeedways: Daytona, Talladega (drafting, chaos-prone)
- Intermediate Ovals: Charlotte, Kansas (aerodynamic efficiency)
- Short Tracks: Bristol, Martinsville (braking, aggression)
- Road Courses: Circuit of The Americas, Sonoma (technical driving, pit precision)
When betting props, identify how each driver has historically performed on the track type in question. A driver who underperforms on short tracks isn’t a good Top 5 bet at Bristol, even if they’re elite elsewhere.
Practice and Qualifying Data Matter
Practice speeds and qualifying positions can be extremely predictive for props. If a driver is consistently fast in practice and earns a favorable qualifying spot, it’s a strong signal for props like:
- Top 10 finish
- Head-to-head matchups
- Stage winner (especially for Stage 1 or 2)
However, remember that some drivers prioritize race-day setup over qualifying speed. Know your team tendencies.
Manufacturer Props: Don’t Overlook the Car
In Cup Series races, three manufacturers compete: Chevrolet, Ford, and Toyota. Certain tracks favor specific makes based on aero packages and horsepower setups.
When betting winning manufacturer props:
- Look at which teams are driving each brand.
- Note recent manufacturer trends on similar tracks.
- Check qualifying balance — if 7 of the top 10 starters drive Chevrolets, there’s likely value.
Head-to-Head and Group Matchups: Margin of Error
These props are often where sharp bettors thrive.
Tips for success:
- Use average finish over the last 5-10 races on similar track types.
- Monitor qualifying — a poor start for one driver in the matchup often shifts value significantly.
- Watch for team dynamics: teammates may work together or avoid racing each other too hard, which can impact aggressive passes.
Group matchups (speed lanes) work similarly, but with three or more drivers. You’re picking the best finisher among the group.
Momentum and Form
Current form matters. Drivers on a run of Top 5s or clean races are more reliable bets to continue performing. A hot pit crew and consistent setup choices often carry from week to week.
For example, a driver who has rattled off three straight Top 10s on intermediate tracks is likely in rhythm — ideal for Top 10 props or group matchup wins.
Pit Crews, Team Strategy, and Reliability
Every second counts in NASCAR. Pit crew efficiency, clean stops, and smart crew chief decisions can decide head-to-head props and stage bets.
Consider:
- Average pit stop time (many teams post these stats weekly)
- Recent pit road mistakes (penalties, uncontrolled tires)
- Mechanical reliability — some teams suffer frequent DNFs
Drivers with poor pit crews are risky prop bets, especially when backing them in tight matchups or exact finish range props.
Caution Counts, Race Chaos, and Risk Tolerance
Some tracks are prone to mayhem. Superspeedways like Talladega or Daytona create chaos through pack racing and frequent crashes. This can ruin even the safest prop bets and boost longshots.
In chaotic races:
- Favor underdog group matchup winners
- Avoid aggressive Top 3 bets on inconsistent drivers
- Target head-to-head matchups where one driver has strong survival skills
In cleaner races (like Phoenix or Michigan), statistical averages hold up better, making Top 10 or Top 5 props more stable.
Weather, Track Conditions, and In-Race Adjustments
Rain delays, hot track temps, and rubber build-up can dramatically alter car behavior. Some drivers excel on slick tracks; others fade.
Keep an eye on:
- Temperature and humidity
- Rain in the forecast (shortened races impact prop payouts)
- In-race adjustments — watch how cars respond mid-race before live betting props
Pick Your Spots, Not Every Prop
The prop market rewards precision, not volume. You don’t need to bet every matchup or every Top 10 line.
Your best approach:
- Specialize in one or two markets (e.g., head-to-heads or manufacturer props)
- Track your bets and ROI per prop type
- Lean on a blend of tape, stats, and real-time information (practice speed, pit crew stats, team changes)
Over time, consistent attention to details like track type, form, and qualifying speed will separate you from the casual prop bettor. NASCAR props reward the disciplined and informed — so build your process and trust the data.
