When it comes to baseball prop bets, strikeout props are one of the most popular options. While they aren’t always as fun as home run props or NRFI prop bets, MLB strikeout props usually have more predictive value.
Because of that, we can dig into the analytics to hunt for betting value. That’s exactly what we intend to do within this article.
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Best MLB Strikeout Props Today: Wednesday, June 18
Justin Bales runs through his best strikeout props and DFS Pick’em plays each day of the MLB season. Join Underdog Fantasy today to jump into the action!
Adam Mazur Lower Than 4.5 Strikeouts
Simply put, I don’t understand this number. Mazur drew eight starts for the San Diego Padres last season, and he was one of the worst starters in the MLB. He also hasn’t ever proven to have great strikeout stuff in the MiLB.
The right-hander posted 5+ strikeouts in only one of his eight starts for the Padres. It took 25 batters (to record 6 strikeouts), which isn’t a number he’s expected to get to tonight. He owns 5+ strikeouts in only 6 of his 11 starts in the MiLB this season, and he’s consistently facing 20-23 batters in a game.
Mazur gets a terrible matchup against the Philadelphia Phillies. They rank 21st in the MLB in strikeout rate (20.3%) over the last 14 days. The Phillies also boast a .315 team wOBA over that span.
This is a bad matchup for a bad strikeout pitcher, and we’re still getting a reasonable 4.5 number.
Where to Play: Adam Mazur Lower Than 4.5 Strikeouts | 1.73x at Underdog
Taj Bradley Higher Than 5.5 Strikeouts
Bradley is one of the more interesting arms in the MLB. He ranks in the 35th percentile in the MLB in chase and whiff rate, which leaves a lot to be desired. He owns 25% or better whiff rates on three of his four pitches, but he uses his 4-seamer so frequently that it takes away from his strikeout potential.
The key here is that the right-hander will face off against the Baltimore Orioles. They’re striking out at the fourth-highest rate (25.2%) in the MLB over the last 14 days. The Orioles have consistently struggled with strikeouts throughout the entire season.
Right-handed starters have seen somewhat mixed results against Baltimore in recent games. Five of the last nine own 6+ strikeouts against them, including Adrian Houser (6), Emerson Hancock (6), and Casey Mize (7). I don’t love how Bradley’s attacking opponents this season, but this is an outstanding matchup for him.
Where to Play: Taj Bradley Higher Than 5.5 Strikeouts | 1.88x at Underdog
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Kevin Gausman Less Than 176.5 Strikeouts
Not everyone ages gracefully, with a slow decline. The cliff can come fast and be unkind to some players. Unfortunately, last year’s data suggests that Kevin Gausman will fall into the second camp of players who crash instead of gradually declining.
In 2023, in 31 starts spanning 185.0 innings, Gausman had a 3.16 ERA, 3.85 xERA, 3.22 xFIP, 3.34 SIERA, 1.18 WHIP, 7.2 BB%, 31.1 K%, 33.0 O-Swing%, 84.4 Z-Contact%, 12.9 SwStr%, and 29.6 CSW%. Sadly, Gausman’s numbers cratered. In 2024, in 31 starts spanning 181.0 innings, Gausman had a 3.83 ERA, 4.71 xERA, 4.22 xFIP, 4.24 SIERA, 1.22 WHIP, 7.4 BB%, 21.4 K%, 29.8 O-Swing%, 86.6 Z-Contact%, 10.5 SwStr%, and 25.8 CSW%.
Gausman’s 3.83 ERA was a fluke, evidenced by his ERA estimators. Furthermore, his strikeout rate nosedived with a fall in O-Swing%, an uptick in Z-Contact%, and a fall in SwStr% and CSW%.
Predictably, Gausman’s stuff wasn’t as potent. The veteran righty’s average fastball velocity fell from 94.7 MPH in 2023 to 93.9 MPH in 2024. In addition, per FanGraphs, he had 101 Stuff+, 104 Location+, and 107 Pitching+ in 2023 and 97, 104, and 102 in 2024.
A pitch-by-pitch look at Gausman’s fall was even more alarming. In 2023, he had a 41.0 O-Swing% and 21.3 SwStr% on his splitter versus 37.2% and 16.0% in 2024. Gausman also had a 16.3 O-Swing% and 12.4 SwStr% on his slider in 2023 and 15.1% and 8.8% in 2024. Batters didn’t chase or swing and miss as often against Gausman’s putaway pitches, which might have resulted from a lack of fear of his diminished heater. My money is on a 34-year-old hurler’s inability to recapture his electrifying stuff, leading to fewer than 176.5 strikeouts for Gausman in 2025.
Where to play: Kevin Gausman Less Than 176.5 Strikeouts | Underdog
Pablo Lopez More Than 186.5 Strikeouts
Pablo Lopez was at the polar opposite end of the luck spectrum than Gausman in 2024. While Toronto’s hurler was extremely fortunate, Lopez couldn’t catch a break. In 32 starts spanning 185.1 innings in 2024, Lopez had a 4.08 ERA, 3.67 xERA, 3.36 xFIP, 3.46 SIERA, 1.19 WHIP, 5.3 BB%, 25.6 K%, 12.9 SwStr%, 27.8 CSW%, 94 Stuff+, 113 Location+, and 107 Pitching+. No matter your preferred ERA estimator, Lopez’s ERA estimators were all considerably better than his 4.08 ERA last season.
Lopez’s ERA should regress to under 4.00 this season. Even in an unlucky season, Lopez had a knack for piling up punchouts. He had 198 with 9.62 K/9 in 2024. Lopez was even more impressive in his first season with the Twins in 2023.
In 2023, he had 32 starts spanning 194.0 innings, a 3.66 ERA, 3.00 xERA, 3.28 xFIP, 3.37 SIERA, 1.15 WHIP, 6.0 BB%, 29.2 K%, 10.86 K/9, 234 strikeouts, 14.5 SwStr%, 30.1 CSW%, 100 Stuff+, 114 Location+, and 113 Pitching+. Lopez would smash his strikeouts prop if he reverted to his 2023 form. Yet, even a repeat of his unlucky 2024 would result in more than 186.5 strikeouts.
The projection models uniformly expect Lopez to settle in between his 2023 and 2024 numbers. Moreover, they almost unanimously projected Lopez to have over 186.5 strikeouts this year. Lopez is projected to strike out 201, 203, 182, 197, 196, 194, 199, and 199 batters by FanGraphs Depth Charts, Steamer, ZiPS, ZiPS Depth Charts, ATC, The BAT, OOPSY, and the Zeile Consensus. Only ZiPS projects him to have under 186.5 strikeouts, and they get him to 197 with the aid of the FanGraphs Depth Charts playing time projection.
Where to play: Pablo Lopez More Than 186.5 Strikeouts | Underdog
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