When it comes to baseball prop bets, strikeout props are one of the most popular options. While they aren’t always as fun as home run props or NRFI prop bets, MLB strikeout props usually have more predictive value.
Because of that, we can dig into the analytics to hunt for betting value. That’s exactly what we intend to do within this article.
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Best MLB Strikeout Props Today: Wednesday, May 7
Justin Bales runs through his best strikeout props and DFS pick’em plays each day of the MLB season.
Hunter Greene Higher Than 7.5 Strikeouts
Greene is one of the best young pitchers in the MLB at this point. He boasts a 33.3% strikeout rate with an 11.6 K/9 through 42.2 innings. He also owns elite 16.6% swinging-strike and 31.7% CSW rates this season.
The Cincinnati Reds ace currently ranks in the 87th percentile in the MLB in chase rate. He also ranks in the 89th percentile in whiff rate. He boasts one of the best sliders in the game, recording a ridiculous 52.2% whiff rate while throwing it more than 200 times thus far.
This is an interesting matchup for Greene. He’ll face off against the Atlanta Braves, who rank 12th in the MLB in strikeout rate (22.2%) against right-handed pitching. They’ve been heating up as an offense, though, and they’re only striking out 18.8% of the time over the last 14 days.
This feels more like a product of competition rather than a major breakthrough in terms of strikeouts. The only true strikeout option they’ve played over their last 13 matchups against right-handed starters is Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who recorded 6 strikeouts. They’ve also faced off against Erick Fedde (3), Andre Pallante (1), Miles Mikolas (2), Merrill Kelly (4), and German Marquez (1), to name a few.
This game quickly becomes choosing between an elite arm and a high-upside offense. The Cincinnati right-hander owns 7+ strikeouts in all but one game this season. He recorded 4 strikeouts in only 3 innings against the Baltimore Orioles. Excluding that game, he’s averaging 8.5 strikeouts per start.
We know there are whiffs available throughout this Atlanta lineup, and I’ll favor the high-end pitcher.
Where to Play: Hunter Greene higher than 7.5 strikeouts | 2.17x at Underdog
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Underdog 2025 MLBSZN Picks
Kevin Gausman Less Than 176.5 Strikeouts
Not everyone ages gracefully, with a slow decline. The cliff can come fast and be unkind to some players. Unfortunately, last year’s data suggests that Kevin Gausman will fall into the second camp of players who crash instead of gradually declining.
In 2023, in 31 starts spanning 185.0 innings, Gausman had a 3.16 ERA, 3.85 xERA, 3.22 xFIP, 3.34 SIERA, 1.18 WHIP, 7.2 BB%, 31.1 K%, 33.0 O-Swing%, 84.4 Z-Contact%, 12.9 SwStr%, and 29.6 CSW%. Sadly, Gausman’s numbers cratered. In 2024, in 31 starts spanning 181.0 innings, Gausman had a 3.83 ERA, 4.71 xERA, 4.22 xFIP, 4.24 SIERA, 1.22 WHIP, 7.4 BB%, 21.4 K%, 29.8 O-Swing%, 86.6 Z-Contact%, 10.5 SwStr%, and 25.8 CSW%.
Gausman’s 3.83 ERA was a fluke, evidenced by his ERA estimators. Furthermore, his strikeout rate nosedived with a fall in O-Swing%, an uptick in Z-Contact%, and a fall in SwStr% and CSW%.
Predictably, Gausman’s stuff wasn’t as potent. The veteran righty’s average fastball velocity fell from 94.7 MPH in 2023 to 93.9 MPH in 2024. In addition, per FanGraphs, he had 101 Stuff+, 104 Location+, and 107 Pitching+ in 2023 and 97, 104, and 102 in 2024.
A pitch-by-pitch look at Gausman’s fall was even more alarming. In 2023, he had a 41.0 O-Swing% and 21.3 SwStr% on his splitter versus 37.2% and 16.0% in 2024. Gausman also had a 16.3 O-Swing% and 12.4 SwStr% on his slider in 2023 and 15.1% and 8.8% in 2024. Batters didn’t chase or swing and miss as often against Gausman’s putaway pitches, which might have resulted from a lack of fear of his diminished heater. My money is on a 34-year-old hurler’s inability to recapture his electrifying stuff, leading to fewer than 176.5 strikeouts for Gausman in 2025.
Where to play: Kevin Gausman Less Than 176.5 Strikeouts | Underdog
Pablo Lopez More Than 186.5 Strikeouts
Pablo Lopez was at the polar opposite end of the luck spectrum than Gausman in 2024. While Toronto’s hurler was extremely fortunate, Lopez couldn’t catch a break. In 32 starts spanning 185.1 innings in 2024, Lopez had a 4.08 ERA, 3.67 xERA, 3.36 xFIP, 3.46 SIERA, 1.19 WHIP, 5.3 BB%, 25.6 K%, 12.9 SwStr%, 27.8 CSW%, 94 Stuff+, 113 Location+, and 107 Pitching+. No matter your preferred ERA estimator, Lopez’s ERA estimators were all considerably better than his 4.08 ERA last season.
Lopez’s ERA should regress to under 4.00 this season. Even in an unlucky season, Lopez had a knack for piling up punchouts. He had 198 with 9.62 K/9 in 2024. Lopez was even more impressive in his first season with the Twins in 2023.
In 2023, he had 32 starts spanning 194.0 innings, a 3.66 ERA, 3.00 xERA, 3.28 xFIP, 3.37 SIERA, 1.15 WHIP, 6.0 BB%, 29.2 K%, 10.86 K/9, 234 strikeouts, 14.5 SwStr%, 30.1 CSW%, 100 Stuff+, 114 Location+, and 113 Pitching+. Lopez would smash his strikeouts prop if he reverted to his 2023 form. Yet, even a repeat of his unlucky 2024 would result in more than 186.5 strikeouts.
The projection models uniformly expect Lopez to settle in between his 2023 and 2024 numbers. Moreover, they almost unanimously projected Lopez to have over 186.5 strikeouts this year. Lopez is projected to strike out 201, 203, 182, 197, 196, 194, 199, and 199 batters by FanGraphs Depth Charts, Steamer, ZiPS, ZiPS Depth Charts, ATC, The BAT, OOPSY, and the Zeile Consensus. Only ZiPS projects him to have under 186.5 strikeouts, and they get him to 197 with the aid of the FanGraphs Depth Charts playing time projection.
Where to play: Pablo Lopez More Than 186.5 Strikeouts | Underdog
Check out our guide to the best DFS sites, which outlines some of the best sports gaming options available in most U.S. states (even the ones that haven’t legalized sports betting).
Best MLB DFS Pick’Em Sites
We love the MLB DFS pick’em projections available at top-flight daily fantasy sites like Underdog and Sleeper. They offer a very similar experience to player props.
You’ll often find a lot of value and strong payouts available at legal DFS sites. These apps are also available in many states that don’t yet have legal online sports betting.
Best Sportsbooks For MLB Strikeout Props & Bets
The sportsbooks and daily fantasy sites featured in this article offer more than enough options to satisfy your MLB player props needs. As outlined before, always shop around for the best price when it comes to NBA player props.
You can’t go wrong with BetMGM, Caesars, and FanDuel Sportsbook when it comes to any kind of sports bet. Take a look at the following guides to see if these sportsbooks are legal in your state:
Sweepstakes Sportsbooks For MLB Strikeout Props
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