When it comes to baseball prop bets, strikeout props are one of the most popular options. While they aren’t always as fun as home run props, MLB strikeout props usually have more predictive value.
Because of that, we can dig into the analytics to hunt for betting value. That’s exactly what we intend to do within this article.
Best MLB Strikeout Props Today: Wednesday, July 23
Justin Bales runs through his best strikeout props and DFS Pick’em plays each day of the MLB season. Join Underdog Fantasy today, and jump into the action!
JP Sears Higher Than 4.5 Strikeouts
Sears isn’t a good pitcher. There isn’t any way around it. He’s also worse on the road and against right-handed batters. He does have a few pitches he can put guys away with, but this play is entirely about the matchup.
The left-hander will face off against the Texas Rangers tonight. They’re striking out at the second-highest rate (27%) in the league over the last 14 days (limited games because of the All-Star Break). The Rangers also rank seventh in the MLB in strikeout rate (25%) against left-handed pitching this season.
Texas is expected to start six players who strike out 25% or more against left-handed pitching in 2025. Michael Helman is also expected to start, and he only owns 5 at-bats against lefties this season.
Although Sears isn’t good, we’ve seen 12 of the last 15 left-handed starters post 5+ strikeouts against the Rangers, including Trevor Rogers (5), Mitchell Parker (5), and Matthew Liberatore (5).
Where to play: JP Sears Higher Than 4.5 Strikeouts | 2.07x at Underdog
Michael Soroka Lower Than 5.5 Strikeouts
Soroka’s one of the more interesting pitchers in the MLB because he’s been both extremely unlucky and lucky. He’s due for positive regression, as his 5.10 ERA sits well above his 3.22 xERA. He’s also due for strikeout regression, as he ranks in the 37th and 45th percentiles in the MLB in chase and whiff rate but 72nd percentile in strikeout rate.
The right-hander gets a difficult matchup against the Cincinnati Reds today. They rank second-last in the MLB in strikeout rate (17.8%) over the last 14 days. They also boast a .339 team wOBA over that span.
The Reds have gotten a few easy matchups to help their strikeout rate in recent games. They’ve held 19 of the last 25 right-handed starters under 6 strikeouts. The pitchers who went over include Slade Cecconi (8), Miles Mikolas (6), Dylan Cease (8), Zack Wheeler (12), Eury Perez (8), and German Marquez (8).
Where to play: Michael Soroka Lower Than 5.5 Strikeouts | 1.69x at Underdog
Underdog 2025 MLBSZN Picks
Kevin Gausman Less Than 176.5 Strikeouts
Not everyone ages gracefully, with a slow decline. The cliff can come fast and be unkind to some players. Unfortunately, last year’s data suggests that Kevin Gausman will fall into the second camp of players who crash instead of gradually declining.
In 2023, in 31 starts spanning 185.0 innings, Gausman had a 3.16 ERA, 3.85 xERA, 3.22 xFIP, 3.34 SIERA, 1.18 WHIP, 7.2 BB%, 31.1 K%, 33.0 O-Swing%, 84.4 Z-Contact%, 12.9 SwStr%, and 29.6 CSW%. Sadly, Gausman’s numbers cratered. In 2024, in 31 starts spanning 181.0 innings, Gausman had a 3.83 ERA, 4.71 xERA, 4.22 xFIP, 4.24 SIERA, 1.22 WHIP, 7.4 BB%, 21.4 K%, 29.8 O-Swing%, 86.6 Z-Contact%, 10.5 SwStr%, and 25.8 CSW%.
Gausman’s 3.83 ERA was a fluke, evidenced by his ERA estimators. Furthermore, his strikeout rate nosedived with a fall in O-Swing%, an uptick in Z-Contact%, and a fall in SwStr% and CSW%.
Predictably, Gausman’s stuff wasn’t as potent. The veteran righty’s average fastball velocity fell from 94.7 MPH in 2023 to 93.9 MPH in 2024. In addition, per FanGraphs, he had 101 Stuff+, 104 Location+, and 107 Pitching+ in 2023 and 97, 104, and 102 in 2024.
A pitch-by-pitch look at Gausman’s fall was even more alarming. In 2023, he had a 41.0 O-Swing% and 21.3 SwStr% on his splitter versus 37.2% and 16.0% in 2024. Gausman also had a 16.3 O-Swing% and 12.4 SwStr% on his slider in 2023 and 15.1% and 8.8% in 2024. Batters didn’t chase or swing and miss as often against Gausman’s putaway pitches, which might have resulted from a lack of fear of his diminished heater. My money is on a 34-year-old hurler’s inability to recapture his electrifying stuff, leading to fewer than 176.5 strikeouts for Gausman in 2025.
Where to play: Kevin Gausman Less Than 176.5 Strikeouts | Underdog
Pablo Lopez More Than 186.5 Strikeouts
Pablo Lopez was at the polar opposite end of the luck spectrum than Gausman in 2024. While Toronto’s hurler was extremely fortunate, Lopez couldn’t catch a break. In 32 starts spanning 185.1 innings in 2024, Lopez had a 4.08 ERA, 3.67 xERA, 3.36 xFIP, 3.46 SIERA, 1.19 WHIP, 5.3 BB%, 25.6 K%, 12.9 SwStr%, 27.8 CSW%, 94 Stuff+, 113 Location+, and 107 Pitching+. No matter your preferred ERA estimator, Lopez’s ERA estimators were all considerably better than his 4.08 ERA last season.
Lopez’s ERA should regress to under 4.00 this season. Even in an unlucky season, Lopez had a knack for piling up punchouts. He had 198 with 9.62 K/9 in 2024. Lopez was even more impressive in his first season with the Twins in 2023.
In 2023, he had 32 starts spanning 194.0 innings, a 3.66 ERA, 3.00 xERA, 3.28 xFIP, 3.37 SIERA, 1.15 WHIP, 6.0 BB%, 29.2 K%, 10.86 K/9, 234 strikeouts, 14.5 SwStr%, 30.1 CSW%, 100 Stuff+, 114 Location+, and 113 Pitching+. Lopez would smash his strikeouts prop if he reverted to his 2023 form. Yet, even a repeat of his unlucky 2024 would result in more than 186.5 strikeouts.
The projection models uniformly expect Lopez to settle in between his 2023 and 2024 numbers. Moreover, they almost unanimously projected Lopez to have over 186.5 strikeouts this year. Lopez is projected to strike out 201, 203, 182, 197, 196, 194, 199, and 199 batters by FanGraphs Depth Charts, Steamer, ZiPS, ZiPS Depth Charts, ATC, The BAT, OOPSY, and the Zeile Consensus. Only ZiPS projects him to have under 186.5 strikeouts, and they get him to 197 with the aid of the FanGraphs Depth Charts playing time projection.
Where to play: Pablo Lopez More Than 186.5 Strikeouts | Underdog
Check out our guide to the best DFS sites, which outlines some of the best sports gaming options available in most U.S. states (even the ones that haven’t legalized sports betting).
Best MLB DFS Pick’Em Sites
We love the MLB DFS pick’em projections available at top-flight daily fantasy sites like Underdog and Sleeper. They offer a very similar experience to player props.
You’ll often find a lot of value and strong payouts available at legal DFS sites. These apps are also available in many states that don’t yet have legal online sports betting.
Best Sportsbooks For MLB Strikeout Props & Bets
The sportsbooks and daily fantasy sites featured in this article offer more than enough options to satisfy your MLB player props needs. As outlined before, always shop around for the best price when it comes to NBA player props.
You can’t go wrong with BetMGM, Caesars, and FanDuel Sportsbook when it comes to any kind of sports bet. Take a look at the following guides to see if these sportsbooks are legal in your state:
Sweepstakes Sportsbooks For MLB Strikeout Props
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