Welcome to our Kalshi advice article, where expert Sam Pasco gives you his best Kalshi picks today!
Whether you’re new to Kalshi or already building your prediction portfolio, we’re here to highlight the most compelling plays of the day and why they’re worth a look.
Best Kalshi Picks Today – Expert Advice and Portfolio Tips
From what’s happening on Capitol Hill to what might happen next in Hollywood, we’re scanning the markets and surfacing positions that blend relevance, value, and a little bit of fun.
“Now You See Me: Now You Don’t” Rotten Tomatoes Score: Can the Threequel Stick the Landing?
After nearly a decade of development purgatory, rewrites, director shuffles, and a cast list that looks like someone spilled a tub of A-list Scrabble tiles, Now You See Me: Now You Don’t finally hit critics’ inboxes.
And… it’s fresh? Fresh!
The threequel debuted in the low 60s — already a franchise best. The 2013 original scraped by with 51%, and the much-maligned second installment faceplanted into a 34% splat. Compared to those, “60-something” looks like prestige cinema.
But don’t let the brief dazzle fool you. Early reviews are split straight down the deck. For every AV Club praising the cast’s infectious chemistry, there’s a Globe and Mail calling the magic “all too familiar” and The Daily Beast declaring it “even duller than its predecessors.”
This thing is sitting on a knife’s edge: fresh today, vulnerable tomorrow. And with only ~60 reviews in, the number is far from locked.
What People Are Saying
- On tone: “Ridiculous but fun,” say several outlets; “fun but exhausting,” counters just as many.
- On the cast: Nearly universal praise for the old guard having fun — plus surprise love for the newcomers.
- On the magic: Some critics adore the spatial-illusion set pieces. Others think CGI is doing more heavy lifting than sleight of hand.
- On Ruben Fleischer: Lots of “competent, lively, nothing special” energy.
- On franchise prospects: Lionsgate already greenlit a fourth film, which tells you everything about box office expectations.
The Market Picture
Kalshi traders wasted no time turning critic squabbling into price action:
- Above 55 — 89% (Yes 94¢ / No 11¢)
- Above 57 — 73% (Yes 72¢ / No 72¢)
- Above 60 — 7% (Yes 7¢ / No 96¢)
Forecast: 58.7
Volume: $92,677 and climbing, with the chart spiking the moment reviews went live.
The market clearly believes “slightly fresh” is the sweet spot — but “comfortably fresh”? Not so much.
Bull vs Bear Case
🐂 Bull case:
The franchise has never launched this high. Critics praising the chemistry, breezy pacing, and a genuinely crowd-pleasing villain (Rosamund Pike eating up Bond-villain energy) could nudge late reviews upward. If audiences embrace it, some critics may update positively. A 60–62% landing zone isn’t insane.
🐻 Bear case:
The knife edge is real. Negative write-ups keep trickling in, and several major outlets already dragged the film as overstuffed, over-CGI’d, and under-written. With only ~60 reviews counted, the denominator is tiny. One or two ugly batches could yank this below 60 quickly.
The “Above 60” line at 7% isn’t random — the market is clearly expecting regression.
Pick
Best value: Yes on Above 57 at 72¢.
Here’s why:
58–59 is the most realistic final resting place, and the forecast is literally pinned at 58.7. The market is effectively pricing the movie to just hang onto the high-50s. That’s where the reviews are clustering, and where sequels to mid-tier franchises tend to settle once the dust clears.
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