Welcome to our Kalshi advice article, where expert Sam Pasco gives you his best Kalshi picks today!
Whether you’re new to Kalshi or already building your prediction portfolio, we’re here to highlight the most compelling plays of the day and why they’re worth a look.
Best Kalshi Picks Today – Expert Advice and Portfolio Tips
From what’s happening on Capitol Hill to what might happen next in Hollywood, we’re scanning the markets and surfacing positions that blend relevance, value, and a little bit of fun.
Zootopia 2 Rotten Tomatoes: Can the Sequel Stay Above 90?
The first Zootopia was a juggernaut—Oscar winner, meme generator, and the only kids’ movie to inspire both plush toys and thinkpieces on policing. So expectations for Zootopia 2 were sky-high before critics even saw a single scale on Ke Huy Quan’s scene-stealing snake, Gary De’Snake.
The Setup
Now the reviews are in, and the sequel is hitting that magical space where popcorn fun meets social commentary. Critics praise the emotional depth, the city-expanding worldbuilding, and Judy and Nick’s still-electric buddy-cop banter. The biggest surprise? The movie actually answers the long-standing “Where are the reptiles?” question—and turns it into one of the film’s best storylines.
Not everyone is smitten. A handful of reviewers knock the flatter animation style and the Disney+ tone creep. But the consensus is loud: this is a worthy follow-up with heart, humor, and just enough political bite to keep adults awake.
What People Are Saying
- On Gary De’Snake: Critics love him. Words like “endearing,” “empathetic,” and “scene-stealing” are getting thrown around like confetti. Quan might be doing career-best voice work.
- On the themes: Reviewers highlight the thoughtful reframing of prejudice, gentrification, and erased communities. Yes, this is in a kids’ movie about talking animals.
- On the visuals: Split crowd—some find the world lovingly detailed, others think it lost some of the original’s CG magic.
- On the vibes: Nearly universal praise for the Judy/Nick dynamic, even without the romantic subplot audiences swear they can see from space.
The Market Picture
The Kalshi board looks like a Savannah Square traffic circle at rush hour—active, noisy, and trending bullish.
- Above 90: 71% (Yes 79¢ / No 30¢) — up 6 points
- Above 92: 37% (Yes 35¢ / No 75¢) — down 7 points
- Above 95: 5% (Yes 5¢ / No 98¢) — cratered 18
- Forecast: 91.7, up 1.1
- Volume: $184,026 and counting
Bull vs Bear Case
Bull case:
Critic sentiment is strong, consistent, and broad. Multiple outlets gave it 4/4 or 4/5. Big-name reviewers praise its emotional arcs, thoughtful worldbuilding, and tight character writing. Family audiences are responding well, which further stabilizes scores. The strong reptile subplot—plus Shakira back in the booth—gives this movie legs (and scales) to hold above 90.
Bear case:
Some top critics are lukewarm. Complaints about flatter animation and “Disney+ creep” suggest a ceiling in the low 90s. The gentrification storyline—while praised by many—may be a bit heavy for more traditional family reviewers. A few outlier pans could drag the score below the 90 threshold.
Pick
The sharpest play on the board is still Yes Above 90 at 79¢.
It’s not glamorous, but it’s sturdy—like Clawhauser with a donut. The reviews skew solidly positive, and the film isn’t divisive enough to collapse into the 80s.
The verdict: Zootopia 2 is good, the market is steady, and Judy and Nick’s partnership is as reliable as this trade.
“Wicked: For Good” RT Score: Is Oz Falling or Just Leveling Out?
The Setup
The long-awaited finale to Jon M. Chu’s two-part Wicked saga finally hit critics’ desks — and the reaction has been more mixed than Glinda’s bubble-powered skincare routine. After cruising for weeks in the mid-80s forecast range, the market imploded when reviews rolled in. The Tomatometer slid down a trapdoor to 71–72%, with Top Critics even frostier at 61%.
Critics are split between calling the film “epic” and calling it “abysmal,” with a spectrum of takes that run from gushing over Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande’s performances to roasting the direction, visuals, pacing, and new songs. It’s nowhere near a bomb — more like a sparkly, emotional, occasionally uneven Broadway hangover.
And the numbers reflect that: the forecast sank to 71.4, down 10.6 points in a single day, one of the sharper drops for any major film market this year. Volume is massive — $846K+ as traders scramble to reprice Oz.
What People Are Saying
- On Grande & Erivo: Almost universal praise. “Powerhouse,” “astonishing,” “career-best,” you name it. Grande in particular is drawing raves for her expanded arc.
- On direction & visuals: Much harsher. Multiple critics call the movie “flat,” “ugly,” “lazy,” or “cacophonous.”
- On pacing & new songs: Mixed at best. Some find the emotional beats richer than Part 1; others say the new music doesn’t hit.
- On the fandom factor: Strong. If you love Wicked, you’ll probably love this. If not… this won’t change your mind.
- On awards prospects: Weakening. The lower RT + 61 Metacritic combo is not the stuff Best Picture bids are made of.
The Market Picture
The Kalshi board as of 11/20:
- Above 67 — 99% (Yes 99¢ / No 4¢)
- Above 70 — 64% (Yes 69¢ / No 36¢)
- Above 72 — 33% (Yes 33¢ / No 70¢)
- Forecast: 71.4, stabilizing slightly after the initial crash
Bull vs Bear Case
Bull case:
The score has stopped bleeding and appears to be settling in the 71–73% band. More reviews will trickle in, but major outlets already weighed in — meaning volatility should cool. The fandom effect is real: Wicked diehards tend to like the sequels no matter what. And critics praising the emotional core could nudge the score upward as more mid-positive reviews arrive.
Bear case:
This is what the floor looks like, not a bounce. With Top Critics sitting at 61%, there’s a structural ceiling forming. The complaints — flat visuals, overstuffed plot, weaker songs — are consistent enough to prevent a late rally. There’s also sequel fatigue and a clear trend: Part 2 reviews are worse across the board.
Pick
The Above 67 line is already baked — ignore it unless you love tying up capital for pennies.
The real play is Above 70 at 69¢.
Despite the dramatic plunge, the stabilization around 71–72% suggests the bottom is in. New reviews aren’t glowing, but they’re not catastrophic either; they tend to land in the 3/5, “liked it but flawed” zone that props up this range.
Buy Yes on Above 70. The market overcorrected, the sentiment is normalizing, and the film has enough fan-driven positivity to hold the low 70s. Not quite defying gravity — but not melting either.
“Now You See Me: Now You Don’t” Rotten Tomatoes Score: Can the Threequel Stick the Landing?
After nearly a decade of development purgatory, rewrites, director shuffles, and a cast list that looks like someone spilled a tub of A-list Scrabble tiles, Now You See Me: Now You Don’t finally hit critics’ inboxes.
And… it’s fresh? Fresh!
The threequel debuted in the low 60s — already a franchise best. The 2013 original scraped by with 51%, and the much-maligned second installment faceplanted into a 34% splat. Compared to those, “60-something” looks like prestige cinema.
But don’t let the brief dazzle fool you. Early reviews are split straight down the deck. For every AV Club praising the cast’s infectious chemistry, there’s a Globe and Mail calling the magic “all too familiar” and The Daily Beast declaring it “even duller than its predecessors.”
This thing is sitting on a knife’s edge: fresh today, vulnerable tomorrow. And with only ~60 reviews in, the number is far from locked.
What People Are Saying
- On tone: “Ridiculous but fun,” say several outlets; “fun but exhausting,” counters just as many.
- On the cast: Nearly universal praise for the old guard having fun — plus surprise love for the newcomers.
- On the magic: Some critics adore the spatial-illusion set pieces. Others think CGI is doing more heavy lifting than sleight of hand.
- On Ruben Fleischer: Lots of “competent, lively, nothing special” energy.
- On franchise prospects: Lionsgate already greenlit a fourth film, which tells you everything about box office expectations.
The Market Picture
Kalshi traders wasted no time turning critic squabbling into price action:
- Above 55 — 89% (Yes 94¢ / No 11¢)
- Above 57 — 73% (Yes 72¢ / No 72¢)
- Above 60 — 7% (Yes 7¢ / No 96¢)
Forecast: 58.7
Volume: $92,677 and climbing, with the chart spiking the moment reviews went live.
The market clearly believes “slightly fresh” is the sweet spot — but “comfortably fresh”? Not so much.
Bull vs Bear Case
🐂 Bull case:
The franchise has never launched this high. Critics praising the chemistry, breezy pacing, and a genuinely crowd-pleasing villain (Rosamund Pike eating up Bond-villain energy) could nudge late reviews upward. If audiences embrace it, some critics may update positively. A 60–62% landing zone isn’t insane.
🐻 Bear case:
The knife edge is real. Negative write-ups keep trickling in, and several major outlets already dragged the film as overstuffed, over-CGI’d, and under-written. With only ~60 reviews counted, the denominator is tiny. One or two ugly batches could yank this below 60 quickly.
The “Above 60” line at 7% isn’t random — the market is clearly expecting regression.
Pick
Best value: Yes on Above 57 at 72¢.
Here’s why:
58–59 is the most realistic final resting place, and the forecast is literally pinned at 58.7. The market is effectively pricing the movie to just hang onto the high-50s. That’s where the reviews are clustering, and where sequels to mid-tier franchises tend to settle once the dust clears.
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