Here we go with our best college football bets for Week 4 of the NCAAF season.
Each of our Props.com analysts were asked to list their top two NCAAF picks for the weekend.
Best College Football Bets: Week 4
These best college football bets were compiled earlier in the week, so there’s a chance the lines have shifted since publishing this article.
Iowa at Rutgers Under 34 points
Analyst: Justin Bales
Where to bet: Under 34 total points | -110 at BetMGM
We cashed the under on Iowa the last two weeks, and I’ve mentioned it’s my go-to for college football bets. That’s the case once again this week. The total dropped by nearly a touchdown from last week, but I don’t see a reason why we aren’t attacking the under again.
First, Iowa boasts an elite defense. They’ve allowed 13 points through three games this season. The majority of those points (10) came against Iowa State.
Rutgers isn’t known for their offense. Excluding a 66-point performance against Wagner, the Scarlet Knights are averaging 19 points per game this season. More importantly, they boast a significantly worse offense than Iowa State or Nevada for this matchup (the Hawkeyes’ previous opponents).
Iowa simply doesn’t make mistakes on defense, and they’re content playing a field position game. They’ll force their opponents to go the length of the entire field, which is something they haven’t been able to do at this point in the season.
On the other side, Iowa is relatively hopeless on offense. They scored 7 points against South Dakota State, although those came on field goals and a safety. They also scored only 7 against Iowa State earlier this season.
Iowa “broke out” with 27 points against Nevada last week. They scored 14 points in the first quarter, following that up with 13 points for the remainder of the game.
Granted, Rutgers’ defense is closer to Nevada than Iowa State, but the Hawkeyes haven’t flashed the ability to consistently move the ball in their games. I’m expecting their defense to play at an elite level once again, meaning they’d need an incredible offense performance (by their low standards) to find the over, which I don’t anticipate happening.
Bowling Green vs. Mississippi State Over 52 points
Analyst: Justin Bales
Where to bet: Over 52 total points | -107 at PointsBet
Mississippi State posted 49 and 39 points against Memphis and Arizona before meeting LSU in Week 3. They run the air raid offense, and Will Rogers has shown an elite ability to find success in that type of offense.
Bowling Green allowed 45 points in their opener against UCLA this season. They followed that up with 59 points to Eastern Kentucky in an OT game and 31 points to Marshall in an OT game. They aren’t a team known for their defense, and that isn’t going to change this week.
The key to this play will be how much Bowling Green is able to score. Mississippi State should be able to score around 40 points in this game. There isn’t much left for Bowling Green to hit the over.
The Falcons recorded 17 points against UCLA in the only Power 5 matchup of the season. They also found success against Marshall, who Phil Steele projected to have a solid defense throughout the season.
This is obviously a different matchup in terms of talent on the field, but Bowling Green has shown the ability to get into the end zone at times. I don’t expect them to keep this game close, but that’s why Mississippi State is a 30-point favorite.
We don’t need a lot from Bowling Green, and I’m expecting enough to find the over. It isn’t out of the realm of possibilities that Mississippi State nearly hits the over themselves, depending on how aggressive they want to be on offense and for how long.
Air Force -24 (vs. Nevada)
Analyst: John Supowitz
Where to bet: Air Force -24 | -110 at DraftKings Sportsbook
The Eagles were caught off guard as they lost on the road to Wyoming in their Mountain West opener. They had at least three dozen players that either missed practice or the game with an illness that swept their roster. So if they have the team at full health this week, that will be very helpful. As they head home, they don’t want to go 0-2 in the conference, which many thought they would contend for an MWC title.
This team operates the triple-option offense better than anyone you’ll see. Quarterback Haaziq Daniels and running backs Brad Roberts and John Lee Eldridge III are quick and explosive playmakers. Like last year, they’re putting up the best rushing numbers in the country.
They’re hosting a Nevada team that’s clearly in a rebuild, with former coach Jay Norvell moving on to MWC rival Colorado State and taking several of his best players with him.
Nevada’s 27-0 loss to Iowa last week was a wash, both figuratively and literally. The offense has shown a lack of explosiveness, especially over the last two weeks, including the loss to FCS Incarnate Word.
Air Force can keep this ball on the ground and attack this Nevada defense for what will be a huge get-right game.
Michigan -17 (vs. Maryland)
Analyst: John Supowitz
Where to bet: Michigan -17 | -110 at DraftKings Sportsbook
My biased opinion wouldn’t let me believe the Wolverines would win by 48 against UConn … I guess the Huskies aren’t joining Kansas and Kentucky as the next great football and basketball schools.
Michigan has gone all in on QB J.J. McCarthy as the quarterback, but they haven’t needed him to do much with RB Blake Corum looking good to start the season. Enormous credit goes to that offensive line that looks even better than last year, as they’ve done well in pass and run protection.
The Wolverines’ schedule has been very easy, but they’ll get their first power five opponent this week with Maryland traveling to town. The Terrapins’ air attack with QB Taulia Tagovailoa has been incredible, with him completing 77% of his passing. The ground game is also averaging six yards per carry.
The Terrapins are 3-0, but two of those games were against Buffalo and Charlotte, two FPI bottom feeders. They almost suffered an upset last week against SMU but caught some breaks, including the Mustangs going 2-for-5 on fourth downs.
Michigan has dominated this Big 10 battle, winning by an average of nearly 15 points in the last six games. Maryland has not done well against ranked opponents, going 1-10 ATS and 3-9 when they’re a double-digit dog. The Terps have the offense to put some points on the board, but their defense doesn’t possess the talent to stop this Michigan offense.
Take the Wolverines going away.
Wisconsin +19 (at Ohio State)
Analyst: Matt LaMarca
Where to bet: Wisconsin +19 | -110 at DraftKings Sportsbook
In my full Wisconsin vs. Ohio State preview, I broke down most of the reasons why I like Wisconsin, but I think this team is much better than their current perception. They had an ugly loss in Week 2 vs. Washington State, but it’s not like they played poorly. They turned the ball over three times and had more than 100 penalty yards, which is the main reason they lost.
Overall, the Badgers have gained at least 400 yards of total offense in all four games, and they’ve outgained their opponents by an average of 232.7 yards per game. They have an NFL prospect at quarterback in Graham Mertz, an excellent offensive line, and a strong defense. They check every box you’re looking for in a college squad.
Ohio State is one of the three best teams in college football, but they’ve been pretty untested so far this year. They beat Notre Dame to open the season, but they failed to cover the spread and trailed at halftime. Even though the Badgers are unranked, I think they’re a better team than Notre Dame.
I expect the Buckeyes to ultimately win this contest, but they’re favored by nearly three full touchdowns. I think the Badgers can keep it within the number.
UMass +9.5 (at Temple)
Analyst: Matt LaMarca
Where to bet: UMass +9.5 | -107 at PointsBet
Massachusetts is not exactly a college football powerhouse. In fact, they’re probably one of the worst FBS teams in the entire country. They’ve averaged just 244.7 yards per game while surrendering an average of 371.0, despite playing a pretty weak schedule.
Still, Temple isn’t much better. They lost by 30 points on the road against Duke and two points at home against Rutgers, and they’ve been just as futile offensively. They’ve averaged just 268 yards per game, and no one on the team has amassed even 100 rushing yards through the first three games.
With that in mind, I don’t think they deserve to be favored by nearly 10 points against UMASS. When two bad teams are squaring off against each other, it almost always makes sense to grab this many points. Historically, teams getting at least a full touchdown are 224-197-4 in games between teams with a winning percentage of 33% or lower.
The sharps are also flocking towards the Minutemen. They’ve garnered just 51% of the spread bets, but they’ve accounted for 90% of the dollars.
Best College Football Bets: Results
- Justin Bales: 2-0
- John Supowitz: 1-1
- Matt LaMarca: 1-1
More NCAAF Picks: Week 3
College Football Parlay Picks – Best NCAAF Parlays (Weekly Update)
Best College Football Player Props – Top NCAAF Props (Weekly Update)
