NFL Week 9 Odds: Public Backs Steelers In MNF Vs Bears

UPDATE 5 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: The Week 9 Monday nighter bounced between Steelers -6 and -6.5 a couple of times this week and is currently at the -6 opener. Ticket count and money are both just short of 2/1 on Pittsburgh. The total inched from 40.5 to 40 Sunday night and stuck there, with 62% of tickets on the Over and 71% of money on the Under.

UPDATE 11 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Pittsburgh (4-3 SU, 3-4 ATS) has won three in a row and hopes to keep rolling in the Week 9 Monday night game. The Steelers went to Cleveland as 5-point underdogs and slogged to a 15-10 victory in Week 8.

Chicago (3-5 SU and ATS) couldn’t keep pace in the fourth quarter against San Francisco, losing 33-22 as a 4.5-point home ‘dog.

“We had this game Steelers -5 [on the look-ahead], but we re-opened it -6.5 after their win in Cleveland,” Murray said. “It’s really hard to picture the Bears’ offense having much success on the road against that Steelers’ defense. This certainly sets up to be an ugly football game. We have the total set at 40. Don’t be surprised if that goes down between now and next Monday night.”

The line and total were steady tonight.

UPDATE 11 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Kansas City opened as a 2.5-point chalk at Caesars Sportsbook, and the line dipped to pick ’em in the wake of the Chiefs’ lackluster Monday night win over the Giants. Then the line shot all the way to K.C. -7.5 after the Aaron Rodgers-COVID news broke Wednesday, and it’s now -7.

Caesars took big bets on both sides of this game, though the Kansas City wager was far larger: $520,000 at -7. Green Bay attracted a $110,000 play at +7.5. Ticket count is just beyond 2/1 Packers, while money is 2/1 Chiefs.

“The Packers are still a huge public team, and there’s also the public uncertainty [about] whether the Chiefs are even good. They barely beat the Giants, and the Packers are better than [the Giants],” Caesars assistant director of trading Adam Pullen said. “Jordan Love making his first start in a tough environment isn’t optimal, but the Chiefs really haven’t proven much this year. The Packers are always a team that will generate money and action, no matter when they play, so I’m not surprised that the handle is as big as it is without Rodgers.”

Not surprisingly, the total in this game is down to 48 from a 54 opener and 55.5 peak.

UPDATE 3 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: The Aaron Rodgers-COVID news has had a few hours to percolate. In case you missed it, A-Rodg tested positive and reportedly is not vaccinated, so he can’t play Sunday. After opening this number Chiefs -2.5, The SuperBook flipped to Packers -1 Tuesday morning. That move came in the wake of K.C.’s dismal showing in a Monday night win over the Giants. The number got back to Chiefs -1 within a couple of hours.

But this morning’s news caused the number to shoot straight to Chiefs -7.5. SuperBook executive director John Murray said his shop didn’t get beat to the move by alert bettors or sharp players.

“We had that info pretty early and didn’t really get hit on it. We went to -7.5 and had a sharp customer at SuperBook Colorado take the points, so we moved back down to 7,” Murray said. “It definitely hurts the betting on the game, for sure. This goes from the marquee game of the weekend to a QB mismatch.”

Indeed, second-year backup QB Jordan Love will start for Green Bay against Patrick Mahomes and K.C.

UPDATE 10 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Week 1 is a very distant memory now for Aaron Rodgers and Co. Since that stunning blowout setback to New Orleans, Green Bay (7-1 SU and ATS) is a perfect 7-0 SU and ATS. In the Week 7 Thursday nighter, minus star wide receiver Davante Adams among others, the Packers beat the previously perfect Arizona Cardinals 27-24 as 6.5-point road underdogs.

Meanwhile, back-to-back Super Bowl appearances are a distant memory for Patrick Mahomes and Co. Kansas City (3-4 SU, 2-5 ATS) got blitzed at Tennessee in Week 7, 27-3 as a 4-point favorite. The Chiefs still have Week 8 work to do in the Monday nighter against the visiting New York Giants.

“This should be the heaviest-bet game of the weekend, besides possibly the Sunday night game,” Murray said, alluding to Titans-Rams. “We opened Chiefs -2.5 and haven’t seen much on the game yet. People may be waiting to see how the Chiefs look [Monday] night against the Giants. If they look like the team we expected them to be, this game may push closer to Chiefs -3. If they look like they did [vs. the Titans], there will be a flood of Packers bets next Sunday from public bettors.”

While the line was stable tonight at The SuperBook, the total was quickly on the move, going straight from 54 to 55.5.

UPDATE 11 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Caesars books pegged Los Angeles a 6-point favorite to open, then moved straight to -7.5 Monday on the news that Tennessee’s Derrick Henry (foot) was out. On Thursday night, the line backed up to -7, where it remains now. Ticket count is 3/1 and money just shy of 2/1 on the Rams. The total opened at 53.5, peaked at 54 and is now 53.

UPDATE 3 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: This game was dealt a big star-power setback, as well. Titans stud running back Derrick Henry had foot surgery Tuesday and is out indefinitely. The Rams, who opened -6 Sunday night at DraftKings, moved out to -7.5 by Monday afternoon, and the number remains -7.5 today. Point-spread ticket count is 3/1 and money beyond 6/1 on the Rams. The total opened at 54.5, rose to 55, then dialed down to 53 on Monday’s Henry news. It’s been stable at 54 since Monday afternoon, with approximately 60% of tickets and money on the Under.

UPDATE 10 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Tennessee (6-2 SU and ATS) is on a four-game SU and ATS roll, including impressive back-to-back home wins over Buffalo and Kansas City. The Titans followed those upset victories with another one in Week 8, rallying past Indianapolis 34-31 in overtime as 3-point road pups.

Los Angeles (7-1 SU, 4-4 ATS) has won four in a row SU. The Rams rolled over hapless Houston 38-22 in Week 8, but fell just short as 16.5-point faves despite racing out to a 38-0 lead.

“The Titans keep surprising us. ‘Dogs against the Bills, Chiefs, and the Colts, and they win each game,” Murray marveled while discussing NFL Week 9 odds. “It seemed like every wiseguy in the world was on the Colts today, they get up 14-0 early on, and the Titans rally despite an underwhelming performance from [star running back] Derrick Henry. You have to think at some point, the Titans will run out of steam, and now they have another difficult game Sunday night at the Rams.

“We had this game Rams -4.5 [on the look-ahead line], and we got hit on the Rams at that number, so we re-opened it higher.”

The line was stable tonight at The SuperBook, but similar to Packers-Chiefs, the total edged up from 53 to 54.

UPDATE 8 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Cincinnati hit Caesars’ odds board as a 3-point favorite and almost immediately dipped to -2.5. The line returned to Bengals -3 for a few hours Tuesday, but it’s been -2.5 since Tuesday evening. Cincy is taking 81% of spread tickets, but Cleveland is drawing 61% of spread cash. The total is up to 47 from a 45 opener.

UPDATE 3 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: DraftKings moved Cincinnati from -2.5 to -3 multiple times the past couple of days, and the line is now Cincy -2.5. The Bengals are drawing 63% of spread tickets, but the Browns are landing 71% of spread dollars. The total moved from 45 to 47, then to 46.5 early today, with 67% of early bets/92% of early cash on the Over.

UPDATE 10:30 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Cincinnati was the darling of the league after winning four of five, including a road rout of Baltimore in Week 7. But Week 8 brought a significant letdown as the Bengals (5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS) took a 31-20 lead at the Jets midway through the fourth quarter, but lost outright 34-31 as 11.5-point chalk.

Meanwhile, Cleveland (4-4 SU and ATS) welcomed Baker Mayfield back after he missed a week with a dislocated shoulder. Yet all the Browns’ offense could muster was 10 points against Pittsburgh, falling 15-10 as a 5-point home favorite.

“I’m not sure what happened to these teams today,” Murray said. “The Bengals’ defense looked awful in a shocking loss to the Jets, and the Browns managed to lose at home to Ben Roethlisberger. That’s not good. No action to report on this one yet. I don’t think anyone knows what to make of these teams right now.”

Indeed, the line and the total didn’t move tonight.

UPDATE 8 P.M. ET FRIDAY: This game jumped the fence at Caesars books and everywhere else, with it looking as if Cardinals QB Kyler Murray won’t play. Arizona opened -2.5 and briefly touched -3 early, but the line flipped to San Francisco -2.5 by Thursday afternoon. The Niners are now -2, with 76% of bets/56% of cash still on the Cards.

“I think if Murray does play, it’ll probably hover around where it is now,” Caesars assistant director of trading Adam Pullen said. “If Colt McCoy is announced as the starter, I think the game will probably go to at least [49ers] -4. That’s about a 7-point difference from where it was originally, which is in line with the top quarterbacks being worth a touchdown. But a lot has to do with who the backup is and who they’re playing.”

The total is down to 45 from a 47 opener.

UPDATE 3 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: Arizona opened as a 2.5-point chalk Sunday night at DraftKings and dipped straight to pick ’em Tuesday afternoon. That came after news that Cardinals QB Kyler Murray is day-to-day with an ankle injury. Late Tuesday night, the Cards ticked up to -1, and they’re taking 90% of early bets/63% of early cash. The total fell from 46.5 to 45, with ticket count 3/1 on the Over, but money running dead even.

UPDATE 10:30 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Arizona was seemingly in an ideal position to remain undefeated in Week 8, facing a COVID-depleted Green Bay outfit that had to travel West on a short week. Alas, the Cardinals (7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS) failed to convert a late-game red zone opportunity and fell 24-21 as a 6.5-point home favorite in the Thursday night game.

Arizona quarterback Kyler Murray suffered an ankle injury on the game’s final play, so the extra couple of days rest this week could be key.

San Francisco (3-4 SU, 2-5 ATS) picked up a game on the Cardinals in the NFC West standings, snapping a four-game SU and ATS skid with a 33-22 victory at Chicago as a 4.5-point road favorite.

“This was an interesting one, because our numbers ranged from Cardinals -3 to pick,” Murray said of the debate in The SuperBook risk room. “We opened Arizona -2.5 and are still there. We will be keeping an eye on Kyler Murray’s status all week.”

Neither the line nor total moved tonight.

UPDATE 3:30 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: Baltimore hit DraftKings’ odds board as a 6-point favorite, bottomed out at -5 a couple of times early this week and is now back at the -6 opener. Ticket count is beyond 2/1 and money beyond 4/1 on the Ravens. The total went from 49.5 to 50, where it’s been stable since Monday afternoon. The Over is netting 59% of tickets/66% of cash.

UPDATE 10:30 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Week 8 was probably a well-timed bye for Baltimore (5-2 SU, 3-4 ATS). Entering Week 7, the Ravens were on a five-game win streak (3-2 ATS), starting with a tight home win over the Chiefs and ending with a blowout of the Chargers. But Baltimore then got curb-stomped by Cincinnati 41-17 as a 6.5-point home favorite in Week 7. So a week to heal up from that will be helpful.

Minnesota got a break against Dallas in the Week 8 Sunday nighter by not having to face Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (calf injury). But the Vikings (3-4 SU and ATS) failed to take advantage, losing 20-16 as 4.5-point home favorites.

“We opened Ravens -5.5 and took it off the board when the Sunday night game kicked off,” Murray said, noting Vikings-Ravens will go back up Monday morning. “We didn’t want to open the game too high, even with the Ravens off a loss and their bye week. The Vikings are playing to a pretty high power number right now and are a solid team until they get a lead and Mike Zimmer goes into a shell. This looks like the best of the early games.”

UPDATE 3:30 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: Off-field issues are rightly getting far more attention this week in Las Vegas. Wideout Henry Ruggs was charged with felony DUI following a fatal car crash early Tuesday morning, and the Raiders released Ruggs late Tuesday night. The Raiders have been -3 all week at DraftKings, currently priced at even money while nabbing 84% of bets/93% of money. The total is down to 46.5 from a 48 opener, with ticket count split 50/50 and 75% of money on the Under.

UPDATE 11 P.M. ET SUNDAY: New York (2-5 SU, 3-4 ATS) has a short week to prepare, with the Giants still facing a Week 8 Monday night game at Kansas City. On the flip side, Las Vegas (5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS) is coming off its bye week.

“We had this game Raiders -3 all week [on the look-ahead line] and the action was pretty light, so we put it back on the board at Raiders -3 (even) tonight,” Murray said. “We will need the Giants here pretty big, especially if they look bad on Monday Night Football.”

Indeed, the Raiders have been drawing a boatload of interest each week at The SuperBook and other shops around Las Vegas. That said, there was no line or total movement tonight.

UPDATE 6 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: Late Monday night at DraftKings, Miami dipped from -7 to -6.5, where the number remains tonight. The Dolphins are netting 59% of tickets and 52% of money on the spread. The total rose from 45.5 to 46.5 by Monday, with a 2/1 ticket count on the Under and 3/1 money on the Over.

UPDATE 11 P.M. ET SUNDAY: This game should be shipped to London and played in the middle of the night U.S. time. Or better yet, fired into the sun and not played at all.

Houston (1-7 SU, 4-4 ATS) trailed the Rams 38-0 after three quarters, at which point Los Angeles called off the dogs. That decision helped jumpstart the Texans’ offense, which scored 22 unanswered points in less than six minutes to get the backdoor cover as 16.5-point home underdogs.

Like Houston, Miami (1-7 SU, 2-5-1 ATS) won its season opener and lost the next seven games. In Week 8, the Dolphins lost at Buffalo 26-11, pushing as 15-point pups.

While the line was stable Sunday night at The SuperBook, the total rose to 46.5.

UPDATE 6 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: DraftKings opened Dallas a 7.5-point favorite Monday morning and shot all the way to -10 by Monday night. By late Tuesday, the number receded to -9, although ticket count is 3/1 and money 5/1 on the Cowboys. The total is stable at 49.5, with 65% of tickets on the Under/56% of money on the Over.

UPDATE 11 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Dallas gave quarterback Dak Prescott more time to rest his ailing calf by sitting him in the Week 8 Sunday nighter at Minnesota. And it paid off, as backup QB Cooper Rush and the Cowboys (6-1 SU, 7-0 ATS) won 20-16 as 4.5-point pups, remaining the NFL’s only perfect team at the betting window.

Denver (4-4 SU and ATS) snapped a four-game SU and ATS slide and returned to .500 with a 17-10 win over Washington as 4-point home chalk.

Per The SuperBook’s policy, Broncos-Cowboys was taken off the board once the Cowboys-Vikings game began tonight. There was no movement prior to Broncos-Cowboys coming down, and the game will go back up Monday morning.

UPDATE 6 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: The Patriots opened -2.5 at DraftKings, peaked at -4 late Monday and fell to -3.5 Tuesday afternoon. But it is all Patriots spread at this point, at 91% of tickets/94% of money, even with rumors that Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey (hamstring) might return this week. The total is down to 41 from a 43 opener, with the Over seeing 66% of tickets/52% of money.

UPDATE 11 P.M. ET SUNDAY: New England (4-4 SU and ATS) reached .500 with easily its most impressive win this season in Week 8. The Patriots went to Los Angeles as 4-point ‘dogs and exited with a 27-24 outright win over the Chargers.

Earlier on Sunday, Carolina (4-4 SU and ATS) halted a four-game SU and ATS slide with a 19-13 win catching 2.5 points at Atlanta.

The line and total saw no movement tonight.

UPDATE 11 P.M. ET FRIDAY: This contest saw a major wager at Caesars Sportsbook, throwing the betting splits all out of whack. Buffalo opened -13, peaked at -15 and is now -14.5, while nabbing 86% of spread tickets. But Jacksonville attracted a $520,000 bet at +15 and because of that is getting 88% of spread money.

UPDATE 6 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: Buffalo is out to a 14.5-point chalk at DraftKings, after opening -13.5 Sunday night. There’s almost no interest in the Jaguars, with the Bills collecting 92% of bets and 97% of dollars on the spread. The total moved from 48.5 to 49.5 and back by tonight, with 54% of bets on the Over/83% of money on the Under.

UPDATE 11 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Buffalo (5-2 SU, 4-2-1 ATS) sleepwalked through three quarters against Miami, but got going in the final frame and notched a 26-11 victory, pushing as 15-point home favorites. Hapless Jacksonville (1-6 SU, 2-5 ATS) went off as a 4-point underdog at Seattle and got spanked 31-7.

Within about an hour tonight, the Bills rose to -14 at The SuperBook, while the total was stable.

UPDATE 6 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: New Orleans opened -5 at DraftKings, briefly reached -6.5 Tuesday morning and is now -6. The Saints, who lost QB Jameis Winston (knee) for the season last week, are taking 60% of tickets and 59% of cash on the spread. The total is down 1.5 points to 42, with 61% of bets on the Over, but 86% of money on the Under.

UPDATE 11 P.M. ET SUNDAY: If there were any parlays or moneyline parlays left after the Jets beat the Bengals, New Orleans squelched those tickets. The Saints (5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS) knocked off defending Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay 36-27 as 4-point home ‘dogs. Atlanta (3-4 SU and ATS) fell to Carolina 19-13 laying 2.5 points at home.

It was a costly win for New Orleans, though, as starting quarterback Jameis Winston suffered what’s feared to be a significant knee injury in the first half. Still, within a few minutes of posting this NFC South matchup, the Saints advanced to -4.5 at The SuperBook. The total stuck at 43.5.

UPDATE 6:30 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: Los Angeles dropped from -3 to -1 by Tuesday afternoon at DraftKings, then rebounded to -2 Tuesday evening. The Chargers are attracting 87% of bets/77% of money on the point spread. The total moved from 50 to 51 and back to 50, with 60% of bets on the Over/85% of money on the Under.

UPDATE 11 P.M. ET SUNDAY: QB Justin Herbert and Los Angeles wowed everybody with a 4-1 SU and ATS start, including a win at Kansas City. But the Chargers (4-3 SU and ATS) got spanked at Baltimore in Week 6, had a bye to recover, then lost to New England 27-24 as 3.5-point Week 8 home faves.

Meanwhile, Philadelphia took care of business at winless Detroit, posting a 44-6 beatdown as a 3-point chalk.

Neither the line nor total moved tonight at The SuperBook.

UPDATE 3:30 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: The Thursday night game opened Colts -10.5 at DraftKings, spent some time at -10 and -11, and is now at the opener. New York is seeing 58% of spread bets and Indianapolis 53% of spread money. The total opened at 47, dipped to 45.5 by Tuesday night and is now 46, with 63% of bets and money on the Over.

UPDATE 10:30 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Indianapolis (3-5 SU, 5-3 ATS) darted to a 14-0 lead midway through the first quarter against Tennessee in Week 8. But it was a dogfight the rest of the way for the Colts, who ultimately lost 34-31 in overtime as a 3-point-favorite.

Meanwhile, New York sprung a huge Week 8 upset that had oddsmakers doing cartwheels, as the result extinguished countless parlays, moneyline parlays, ns teasers. The Jets (2-5 SU and ATS) were fielding unheralded backup QB Mike White and catching 11.5 points at home to Cincinnati. Yet Gang Green overcame an 11-point fourth-quarter deficit and won, 34-31.

Following the results of the Colts-Titans and Jets-Bengals contests, The SuperBook dropped significantly from last week’s Jets-Colts look-ahead line.

“We had this game Colts -14.5 [last] Tuesday, but we saw a number of sharp players take the points. And we can’t disagree with them after the Jets’ performance today,” Murray said. “New York and Mike White moved the ball at will against the Bengals’ defense in their upset win. The Colts will be a popular moneyline parlay option this week.”

The line and total were stable tonight on the NFL Week 9 odds board.