College Football Week 9 Odds: Bettors Eye Home ‘Dog Michigan State

UPDATE MIDNIGHT ET THURSDAY: Michigan opened -3.5 Sunday evening at Caesars Sportsbook and got to -4 within a few hours, then hit -4.5 Monday afternoon. On Wednesday, the line receded to Wolverines -4, which is where it stands now. The home underdog Spartans are taking 65% of spread bets and 55% of spread dollars nationwide at Caesars. But interestingly, at Caesars’ operation within the state of Michigan, Sparty is getting 69% of bets and a whopping 94% of money.

“People love betting the ‘dog in the local rivalries, as [those underdogs] tend to raise their game above and beyond for these events,” Caesars VP of trading Craig Mucklow said. “As for line movement, we can’t see it moving now unless a significant sharp bet comes in. The public money for both sides will keep us where we are, unless of course there are significant weather patterns.”

Stable line or no, the local money will just keep pouring in until the noon ET kickoff.

“Handle in Michigan for this game will be huge, especially as the other team in Michigan – the Detroit Lions – hasn’t won a game. So the local focus on this game is massive,” Mucklow said.

UPDATE 5 P.M. ET MONDAY: It’s a Big Ten battle of 7-0 SU teams that have also been good to bettors this season. Michigan (6-1 ATS) enters off a 33-7 rout of Northwestern as a 23.5-point favorite. Michigan State (5-0-2 ATS) had a Week 8 bye, after narrowly escaping Indiana with a 20-15 win laying 3.5 points.

Michigan is already up to -4 at TwinSpires, with ticket count 2/1-plus and money 3/1 on the road favorite.

“We’ve seen a mix of public and sharp play on Michigan so far. Sharps grabbed Michigan -3.5 at open,” Lucas said.

The total is up a tick to 51.5, with 61% of early bets on the Under and 64% of early cash on the Over.

UPDATE 11 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Georgia is up to -14.5 from a -13.5 opener at WynnBet, where tickets and money are 2/1 on the Bulldogs. The total opened at 52 and is now 51 on two-way action, with 52% of bets/59% of money on the Over.

UPDATE MIDNIGHT ET THURSDAY: Georgia moved from -14 to -14.5 in fairly short order Sunday at DraftKings, but on Monday returned to -14 and is still there. The Bulldogs are attracting 72% of spread tickets and 84% of spread dollars. The total got from 50 to 51 early in the week and remains 51 now, with 69% of tickets on the Over, but money is running dead even.

UPDATE 5 P.M. ET MONDAY: This game has the absolute best name for a rivalry, even if it’s no longer deemed proper to use: The World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party. Each year, Georgia and Florida sacrifice a home game to meet in Jacksonville, the midpoint between both campuses.

As it turns out, both teams are coming off a bye. The Bulldogs (7-0 SU, 5-2 ATS) topped Kentucky 30-13 giving 21.5 points in Week 7. Earlier that same day, the Gators (4-3 SU, 3-4 ATS) went to LSU and fell 49-42 as 12.5-point road chalk.

Georgia initially dipped to -14, then returned to the -14.5 opener. The Bulldogs are netting 70% of tickets and 63% of money on TwinSpires.

“The public is on Georgia so far. We saw a small sharp buy on Florida +14.5,” Lucas said.

The total nudged up to 50.5, with 57% of bets/55% of cash on the Over.

UPDATE 12:45 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Ohio State is up to -19.5 from a -17.5 opener at PointsBet USA. However, it’s two-way action, with a modest lean to the Buckeyes, at 53% of bets/57% of money on the spread. The total moved from 59.5 to 58.5, then rose to 60.5, where it’s been since Thursday morning. The Under is getting 56% of bets and the Over 67% of money.

UPDATE 11 P.M. ET: WynnBet pegged Ohio State as 16-point chalk at the outset and is up to -19 tonight. The Buckeyes are landing a relatively modest 62% of spread bets, but that’s translating into 90% of spread dollars. The total moved from 62 to 60.5, with 68% of bets/76% of cash on the Under.

UPDATE MIDNIGHT ET THURSDAY: Ohio State opened -16.5 Sunday afternoon at DraftKings and got to -18.5 within 24 hours. As of tonight, 60% of bets and 64% of cash were on Ohio State. The total initially dipped from 60 to 59, but it’s now up to 61, with ticket count close but money running 5/1 on the Over.

UPDATE 5 P.M. ET MONDAY: Ohio State (6-1 SU, 4-2-1 ATS) has been plowing over opponents since its Week 2 home loss to Oregon. The latest victim was Indiana, which the Buckeyes bashed 54-7 giving 21 points on the road in Week 8.

Penn State — which started out 5-0 and was very much in the hunt for the Big Ten East title — has dropped its last two games. That includes an inexplicable 20-18, nine-overtime setback at Illinois as a massive 24.5-point favorite. Now, the Nittany Lions (5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS) can only hope to wreak havoc on the Big Ten/CFP picture by springing an unlikely upset in Columbus.

This line is already out to Ohio State -19.5, with the Buckeyes taking 67% of spread money. “Sharp money on Ohio State -17.5 and -18.5,” Lucas said. That said, ticket count actually favors Penn State at 56%.

The total is also on the rise early, going from 58.5 to 60, with tickets 4/1 and money beyond 6/1 on the Over.

“The public is hammering the Over,” Lucas said.

UPDATE MIDNIGHT ET THURSDAY: DraftKings has bounced around quite a bit on this line early on. Oklahoma dropped from -20.5 to -17.5 by Monday morning, rebounded to -20 by Monday afternoon, then stabilized at -19 Monday night. Texas Tech is taking 60% of spread tickets, while spread money is almost dead even. The total dropped from 69 to 66.5 by Monday night and remains at 66.5 now. The Over is getting 87% of bets and the Under 79% of money.

UPDATE 5 P.M. ET MONDAY: In Week 8, Oklahoma (8-0 SU, 3-5 ATS) once again looked like it might pull its annual Big 12 botch-up. The Sooners trailed lowly Kansas 10-0 at halftime, but rebounded for a 35-23 win as massive 38-point road favorites. Texas Tech (5-3 SU, 4-3-1 ATS) fell 25-24 as a 1-point home pup to Kansas State.

The Sooners are up a tick to -19.5 at TwinSpires, where Texas Tech is getting 55% of bets and Oklahoma 56% of money.

“Great two-way action to start the week,” Lucas said, while noting the total dipped to 67.5, even with ticket count 5/1 and money 2/1 on the Over. “Sharp money on Under 68.”

UPDATE MIDNIGHT ET THURSDAY: This line bounced between Houston -1 and pick ’em a couple of times this week at DraftKings, and it’s now back to Houston -1. Still, SMU is snagging 77% of bets and a hefty 94% of money on the spread so far. The total fell from 64 to 61.5 by this afternoon, with more than 90% of bets on the Over, but 64% of cash on the Under.

UPDATE 5 P.M. ET MONDAY: Southern Methodist (7-0 SU, 5-2 ATS) hopes to keep its perfect season intact in a possible quest for a New Year’s Day bowl. But Houston (6-1 SU, 4-3 ATS) has won six straight since a season-opening neutral-site setback to Texas Tech, so the Cougars could certainly dent SMU’s hopes.

Houston is up a half-point early to -1.5 at Twinspires, even though SMU is taking 68% of bets/57% of dollars.

“The public is on the undefeated, 19th-ranked Mustangs. Sharps are on Houston,” Lucas said. “This could shape up as Pros vs. Joes.”

The total rose to 63.5, despite the Under taking 72% of early bets/58% of early cash.

UPDATE 12:45 P.M. ET SATURDAY: PointsBet USA opened Auburn -1 and has been at Tigers -3 since Wednesday. However, Mississippi is drawing 62% of spread bets and 57% of spread money. The total bounced around a bit, from 66 to 66.5 to 65.5, and it’s now back at its peak of 66.5. The Under is taking 51% of bets and the Over 57% of cash.

UPDATE 11 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Auburn jumped from a 2.5-point underdog to a 2.5-point favorite at WynnBet this week. The Tigers are getting 63% of tickets, but that’s translating to 93% of dollars on the spread. Auburn is WynnBet’s third-largest liability on the Week 9 docket. The total fell from 68.5 to 66, with ticket count almost even, but 94% of money on the Under.

UPDATE MIDNIGHT ET THURSDAY: This matchup opened a pick ’em at DraftKings and by Wednesday reached Auburn -3, where the line remains. Interestingly, ticket count is beyond 3/1 Ole Miss, but money is almost 2/1 on Auburn. The total is up to 66.5 from a 64.5 opener, with ticket count almost 2/1 and money 3/1-plus on the Over.

UPDATE 5 P.M. ET MONDAY: Heisman Trophy candidate Matt Corral and Mississippi (6-1 SU, 4-2-1 ATS) have won three in a row since a Week 5 loss at Alabama. Auburn (5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS) rebounded from a 34-10 home loss to Georgia by dusting Arkansas 38-23 as a 4-point road ‘dog in Week 7, then took last week off.

Early movement at TwinSpires already has this line up to Auburn -2.5, with the Tigers getting 58% of money but the Rebels drawing 65% of bets.

“Another possible Pros vs Joes,” Lucas said. “The public is on Ole Miss, but the line has gone the other way. We saw some sharp action on Auburn -1 and -2.”

The total inched up to 66.5, with 69% of bets/74% of money on the Over.

UPDATE MIDNIGHT ET THURSDAY: Notre Dame hit DraftKings’ odds board as a 4-point chalk but has spent almost all week at -3.5. Still, ticket count is 5/1-plus and money 3/1 on the Fighting Irish. The total is nailed to 62.5 and seeing no movement, with 68% of tickets on the Over and 55% of dollars on the Under.

UPDATE 5 P.M. ET MONDAY: Notre Dame (6-1 SU, 4-3 ATS) notched a comfortable 31-16 win over USC as 7.5-point home chalk in Week 8. Yet the Fighting Irish are only laying 3.5 against a disappointing and unranked North Carolina outfit that was a top-10 team to start the season. The Tar Heels (4-3 SU, 3-4 ATS) enter off what likely was a much-needed bye week.

The line is stable early at TwinSpires, where ticket count and money are running about 2/1 on Notre Dame. The total also hasn’t budged, with 55% of tickets/59% of money on the Under.

UPDATE MIDNIGHT ET THURSDAY: Wisconsin moved from -2.5 to -3.5 in short order Sunday at DraftKings, then bounced between -3.5 and -3 a couple times this week. The Badgers are currently -3.5, although the Hawkeyes are grabbing 93% of spread bets and 77% of spread dollars. The minuscule total opened at 36, peaked at 37 within a few hours and dipped back to 36.5 by lunch hour Wednesday. The Over was landing 74% of bets/62% of cash.

UPDATE 5 P.M. ET MONDAY: Iowa (6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS) is coming off a bye and looking to rebound after potentially blowing its CFP chances in Week 7. One week after knocking off Penn State in a battle of unbeatens, the Hawkeyes went off as 11-point home favorites against Purdue and got thumped outright 24-7.

Even though Wisconsin enters this one a disappointing 4-3 SU (3-4 ATS), oddsmakers are giving the Badgers the home-field lean. Perhaps that’s because Wisky went to Purdue last weekend and won 30-13 as a 3.5-point favorite.

The Badgers are up to -3.5 at TwinSpires, where 58% of tickets are on Iowa and 56% of money on Wisconsin.

“Good two-way action,” Lucas said.

The very tidy total — the only one on the Week 9 board that’s under 40 points — is already down to 36.5, with 56% of tickets/67% of money on the Under.

UPDATE MIDNIGHT ET THURSDAY: DraftKings opened this line at pick ’em, moved to San Diego State -1 shortly thereafter and stuck there the rest of the week. Ticket count is 4/1 and money 2/1 on the Aztecs. The total rose from 46 to 46.5 Sunday, but by Tuesday made its way down to 44.5, where it remains. The Over is drawing 77% of tickets and the Under 79% of money.

UPDATE 5 P.M. ET MONDAY: Of the nine unbeaten teams in the Top 25, San Diego State (7-0 SU, 5-2 ATS) is ranked lower than all but one — No. 23 Texas-San Antonio. And this week’s short spread, even with the Aztecs at home against Fresno State (6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS), shows oddsmakers don’t necessarily have much faith, either.

San Diego State state crept up to -1.5 early on at TwinSpires, where 64% of tickets/61% of dollars are on the Aztecs. The total is down a point to 45.5, with ticket count 3/1 and money 2/1 on the Under.