As was the case with the American League Championship Series, Props.com offers a betting-odds breakdown of the National League Championship Series matchup between the Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers.
It’s a repeat of last year’s NLCS clash — which Los Angeles rallied to win in seven games — with one significant difference: Braves and Dodgers fans won’t have to travel to a neutral site in Arlington, Texas, as this year’s NL champion will be crowned in either Atlanta or Los Angeles.
The best-of-seven series begins with Game 1 at 8:07 p.m. ET on Saturday in Atlanta.
Odds are courtesy of BetMGM, Circa Sports, DraftKings, FanDuel, and PointsBet USA, and updated as of 4 p.m. EST on Oct. 15.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves
Los Angeles: 106-56 regular season; beat St. Louis Cardinals in NL wild card; beat San Francisco Giants in NLDS, 3-2
Atlanta: 88-73 regular season (NL East champs); beat Milwaukee Brewers in NLDS, 3-1
2021 Head-to-Head Stats:
Season Series: Dodgers won, 4-2
Runs Per Game: Dodgers 4.5/Braves 3.8
Team OPS: Dodgers .659/Braves .671
Starters’ ERA: Dodgers 3.25/Braves 4.22
Bullpen ERA: Dodgers 4.54/Braves 4.70
Odds To Win NLCS:
BetMGM: Los Angeles -225/Atlanta +185
Circa Sports: Los Angeles -200/Atlanta +175
DraftKings: Los Angeles -195/Atlanta +165
FanDuel: Los Angeles -220/Atlanta +182
PointsBet: Los Angeles -225/Atlanta +185
Short-Term History Lesson
In early June, the Braves took two of three games from the Dodgers at Truist Park, with each contest decided by multiple runs.
Two months later, when Atlanta seemingly had a vise-like grip on the NL East race, the Braves were swept by the Dodgers out West, losing all three games by a total of four total runs.
Two pitchers who could be major factors throughout the NLCS shined bright in the home-and-home series:
Dodgers lefty Julio Urias — a 20-game winner who might have been on the shortlist of NL Cy Young candidates had new teammate Max Scherzer been dealt to an American League club at the trade deadline — dominated the Braves twice. Urias allowed only three runs on eight hits while posting a 12/2 strikeout-to-walk rate across 11 innings (2.45 ERA).
Atlanta ace Charlie Morton was similarly stellar against the Dodgers, posting the exact same numbers — three earned runs in 11 innings — while surrendering seven hits, three walks, and striking out 13.
As for Scherzer, he posted a 3.00 ERA in two starts this season against Atlanta (both when he was still with the Washington Nationals). Having closed out Game 5 of the NLDS in San Francisco on Saturday while pitching on two days’ rest, the future Hall of Famer likely will start Game 3 on Tuesday at Dodger Stadium, where he was 3-1 with a 2.17 ERA in six regular-season starts.
Revenge Narrative?
Forget about the Dodgers’ 4-2 advantage over Atlanta this season. The Braves are far more interested in avenging their loss to L.A. in last year’s NLCS, when they squandered a 3-1 series lead.
That seven-game classic had a definitive turning point: With the Braves holding that 3-1 series advantage and leading 2-0 early in Game 5, Atlanta baserunner Marcell Ozuna left third base early when tagging up on a sacrifice fly.
Had Ozuna’s run counted — he was called out on a replay challenge — the Braves would have led 3-0. Instead, the Dodgers collected one run in the fourth inning, three in the sixth, and three in the seventh en route to a season-saving 7-3 win.
The Dodgers then took Games 6 and 7 to clinch their third National League pennant in four years (on the way to winning their first World Series in 32 years).
Fast forward to the present, and the Braves have an opportunity to exact vengeance. Here’s what else they have: home-field advantage. Even though the Dodgers won 18 more games (and took the season series), Atlanta gets Games 1 and 2 and (if necessary) 6 and 7 on its turf by virtue of being a division champion. Los Angeles, which finished one game behind San Francisco in the NL West, entered the playoffs as a wild card.
Accentuate The Positives
The Braves and Dodgers are respectively batting .234 and .239 during the postseason, a far cry from the American League Championship Series combatants (the Red Sox entered Game 1 of the ALCS batting .328 as a team in the postseason, while Houston was hitting .288).
Charting this year’s 10 playoff clubs, Atlanta ranks fourth overall in slugging and OPS rate (Los Angeles is seventh and sixth, respectively). Plus, the Dodgers (five) and Braves (four) have combined for nine postseason home runs, highlighted by Freddie Freeman’s NLDS-clinching homer in Game 4 (off heralded Brewers reliever Josh Hader).
On the pitching side, good luck finding more formidable arms to compete for a world title. The Braves (1.54 ERA) and Dodgers (1.87) currently rank 1-2 in postseason ERA, and Los Angeles leads all playoff pitching staffs in strikeouts (59), WHIP (0.83), and opponents’ batting average (.178).
Prop Bets To Watch
FanDuel doesn’t have much faith in the NLCS being a speedy one, as they’re offering +500 odds on a four-game sweep by either squad. The favorite on Fan Duel’s total-games prop is six games (+210), followed by seven games (+230), and five games (+250).
Speaking of sweeps, PointsBet USA has the Braves listed at +2500 to wipe out the defending champs in four games. One of the reasons for that long-shot price is obviously the Dodgers’ immense depth of talent. Another: The last time Atlanta tripped Los Angeles four consecutive times in a single season was in 2000, when the Braves reeled off five straight wins over a seven-day span.
