According to recent polling from UC Berkeley, both California sports betting ballot referendums appearing on the November ballot (Prop 26 and Prop 27) are severely underwater with voters.
Prop 26, a tribal-backed initiative that would legalize in-person sports betting at tribal casinos and racetracks, fared slightly better than Prop 27, which seeks to legalize online sports betting.
Berkeley IGS Poll #2022-16Tuesday, October 4, 2022
With 53% of respondents opposed to the measure, Prop 27 looks dead in the water. Prop 26 isn’t in a much better position, but with 43% opposed and 20% undecided, it does have a puncher’s chance to pass based on the UC Berkeley polling.
Inside the Numbers
Looking at the demographic breakdowns doesn’t paint a rosy picture. Neither Prop is above 50% support in any demographic.
Prop 26 cracks 40% with Males, and both Props surpassed 40% with the 18-29 and 30-39 demographics. Prop 27 is far more unfavorable, with at least 50% opposition in every demographic over 40. That is a stark difference from Prop 26, which only reaches 50%+ opposition in the 65+ demographic.
Berkeley IGS Poll #2022-16Tuesday, October 4, 2022
These numbers are even more problematic, as younger cohorts are far less likely to vote, particularly in mid-term elections, than older cohorts.
Commercial Operators Need to Rethink Their California Strategy
Perhaps the most remarkable number in the polling is the impression of the proponents of the two Props.
Tribes have a 53% favorable and 19% unfavorable with California voters, while DraftKings, FanDuel, and other gaming companies come in at 14% favorable and 48% unfavorable.
Clearly, tribes have done an excellent job painting these companies’ California aspirations in a negative light. And that was their strategy from the outset.
* It's over, Johnny. The tribes knew going after 27 would hurt 26 but not attacking was never an option.
* I haven't seen the insider polling numbers for 26 but I assume they're under 50%. How far under 50? I'll ask around.
— Victor Rocha (@VictorRocha1) September 26, 2022
But to reach a 14% favorable, it’s clear the companies haven’t done themselves any favors in how they’ve approached their campaign.
* I'll say it again, if passing 27 was the goal, tying it to homelessness was dumb. Californians are not stupid. The tribes defined the sports betting companies as greedy outsiders before the initiative was even qualified.
— Victor Rocha (@VictorRocha1) September 26, 2022
Per UC Berkley, “A voter’s exposure to advertisements about the two initiatives also appears to be a factor, with voters who say they have seen lots of ads about Props 26 and 27 voting No by wide margins, while those who have seen little, or no ads are about evenly divided.”
Not a Surprise
The polling shouldn’t come as a surprise. The dueling California sports betting Props are the most expensive referendum in US history (over $600 million at last check). And the vast majority of ads have been negative, with each side targeting the other.
As Sportradar’s Brandt Iden told Props.com in July, Californians are “going to be overwhelmed by the time November rolls around. Unfortunately, I think you end up in a situation, as we’ve seen statistically when there are competing ballot proposals, voters tend to vote no. I’m not saying that will be the case here, but statistically speaking, it favors a no vote on both.”
What’s Next?
Assuming both sports betting measures fail, the sports betting ball would shift into the legislature’s court. The legislature could craft a referendum of its own, with input from all parties, that could then be placed on the 2024 ballot. But finding a legislative compromise will be difficult, considering relationships between the various stakeholders are certainly frayed.
* I think it's still too early to predict the relationships going forward but they've definitely been damaged.
* I assume deals have been made quietly in the backrooms so that brings me some optimism.
— Victor Rocha (@VictorRocha1) September 26, 2022
And as Victor Rocha further explained on Twitter, “How do we move forward? The sports betting consortium needs to realize they’re subservient to the tribal vision of gambling in California. That’s a hard pill to swallow for a certain mindset.”
If the legislature can’t bring everyone to the table and find a compromise, the 2024 ballot will likely include dueling sports betting initiatives once again.