Here we go with our best college football bets for Week 5 of the NCAAF season.
Each of our Props.com analysts were asked to list their top two NCAAF picks for the weekend.
Best College Football Bets: Week 5
These best college football bets were compiled earlier in the week, so there’s a chance the lines have shifted since publishing this article.
Michigan vs. Iowa Under 42.5
Analyst: Justin Bales
Where to bet: Under 42.5 total points | -115 at DraftKings Sportsbook
It took two defensive touchdowns to barely hit the over for Iowa’s game last week. I’m going right back to the well, as I’m not expecting them to score multiple defensive touchdowns once again this week.
As is the case for the other weeks, this under is almost exclusively on Iowa. They struggle offensively, and they feature one of the best defenses in the NCAA. Their inability to score coupled with their dominant defense gives the perfect situation for the under in their games.
Iowa will face off against Michigan this weekend. The Wolverines have found plenty of offensive success this season, scoring 34+ points in each of their four games. They haven’t faced stiff competition, though, and Iowa will feature the best defense they’ve seen thus far.
Michigan scored their lowest point total (34) last week against Maryland, which was their first step up in competition on the season. The difference between Maryland and Iowa’s defenses is drastic, though.
The Hawkeyes have allowed 10 or fewer points in each of their four games this season. Michigan may be the best offense they will have seen up until this point, but they should be able to slow their offense down similar to the other teams they’ve seen.
On the other side of the ball, Iowa’s consistently struggled to score points. They’ve only scored five offensive touchdowns this season with three of them coming against Nevada. Overall, they’re averaging 17 points per game in 2022, but they’ve found elite defensive success that isn’t sustainable.
Michigan allowed only 17 points in their first three games. Once again, those were easy matchups. They gave up 27 points to Maryland last week. The Terrapins have a drastically better offense than Iowa, though.
The Hawkeyes have struggled to score against terrible defenses. There isn’t any reason to believe they’ll find success against Michigan.
We’re getting a surprisingly high total because of Michigan’s offense, but as long as they don’t turn the ball over, we should hit the under here again.
Illinois vs. Wisconsin Under 43.5
Analyst: Justin Bales
Where to bet: Under 43.5 total points | -110 at FanDuel Sportsbook
Both of these offenses are going to want to run the ball. They were projected as two of the best running offenses in the NCAA entering the season, and that’s been the case. They’re both running the ball over 56% of the time in 2022.
The key here is that both defenses were expected to perform well against the run this season. That hasn’t always been the case for both teams, though.
Illinois has looked great against the run, holding their opponents to only 3.3 yards per carry. They have struggled at times this season, but the Fighting Illini looked outstanding against Indiana and Virginia.
Wisconsin hasn’t been as successful against the run this season. They’re allowing their opponents to average 4.2 yards per carry thus far. That number is inflated by a matchup against Ohio State, though, and Wisconsin was projected to be Phil Steele’s third-best run defense this season.
I don’t believe the Badgers all of the sudden have a terrible run defense. Instead, I expect them to find more success against the run as the season continues.
This game isn’t going to be a surprise to anyone. These teams feature two of the best running backs in the NCAA, and they’re going to force-feed them the ball throughout. Both defenses can load up the box and force the pass to beat them.
Ultimately, the clock should continue to run throughout the game with both teams relying heavily on their running game. I also don’t expect either quarterback to be able to beat the opposing defense.
Oregon -17 (vs. Stanford)
Analyst: John Supowitz
Where to bet: Oregon -17 | -110 at Tipico Sportsbook
The Ducks were punched in the mouth hard in Week 1 with the 49-3 loss to Georgia in Athens, but the Bulldogs have done that to everyone so far. After that awful game, you wondered if Bo Nix was the right choice. He’s answered that with stellar performances and has a 75% completion percentage along with ten touchdowns in that span as Oregon is now 3-1.
CFB Parlay: The Ducks are also part of four large favorites rolled into a +104 moneyline parlay.
They get Stanford this week and do not have a win against an FBS opponent this year. They have given up 35 or more points in six straight losses to FBS opponents. Tanner McKee has done well with moving the ball through the air, but the ground game has been virtually non-existent. With EJ Smith out for the season, it should be worse. Oregon should win big in Eugene.
Baylor -2.5 (vs. Oklahoma State)
Analyst: John Supowitz
Where to bet: Baylor -2.5 | -110 at BetFred Sportsbook
This game isn’t getting the press like other marquee matchups, but it should. We have the 2021 Big 12 championship rematch, and if you remember, this was one of the most memorable endings of last season. The Baylor defense continues to be the rock, especially against the run. They haven’t allowed a team to average more than three yards per carry and are 24th in total yards allowed per game.
Oklahoma State is just as good, allowing 3.12 yards per carry this year. The Bears should rely on Blake Shapen to move the ball, and he’s done well with controlling the offense and preventing turnovers. In 10 games not against Baylor last year, Spencer Sanders had 15 touchdowns and five interceptions and finished the season with 16 TDs and 12 INTs. The Baylor secondary is not as strong as last season, but that defensive line we mentioned is incredible at bringing pressure and will force Sanders into some bad throws.
Navy (+14) at Air Force
Analyst: Matt LaMarca
Where to bet: Navy (+14) at Air Force | -105 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Air Force has arguably the best team they’ve had in decades, so it’s not surprising that they’re favored by two touchdowns over Navy. However, Air Force is not invincible. They lost by three points on the road to a very mediocre Wyoming squad, and the big difference was that Wyoming was extremely prepared for the triple option. Air Force is one of the few remaining teams that rely on that archaic offense, and Wyoming knew how to defend it since they see them every year.
You know who else runs the triple option? Navy. They’ve become a bit more balanced in recent years – they average more than 50 additional passing yards per game compared to Air Force – but they still should not be caught off guard by what Air Force does offensively.
Related: This pick is tied into our +596 NCAAF parlay of the week.
Navy also fits a couple of nice trends in this spot. They’re 8-3 against the spread in their last 11 games as underdogs, and they’re 7-1 against the spread in their last eight against teams with winning records. History suggests that this also might be too many points for a matchup between service academy squads: Underdogs of at least 14 points are 6-3 against the spread since 2006 in matchups between Navy, Air Force, and Army.
NC State (+6.5) at Clemson
Analyst: Matt LaMarca
Where to bet: NC State (+6.5) at Clemson | +100 at DraftKings Sportsbook
This is one of the most important matchups of the week. Both of these teams enter with a top-10 ranking in the AP poll, and the winner will be favored to represent the Atlantic Division in the ACC Championship.
Clemson is coming off a dramatic double-overtime win over Wake Forest last week, but that result should make them a little nervous. While Wake Forest has overachieved to start the year, they’re still not the same caliber of team as NC State. They were 9-3 last season – their best winning percentage since 2002 – and two of their three losses were by four total points.
This team is arguably even better. They survived a scare in Week 1, beating ECU by just a single point, but they’ve bounced back with three straight double-digit wins. They haven’t really been tested yet, but I don’t think there’s a ton separating these two teams.
Despite Clemson’s 4-0, they’ve covered just once so far this season. That includes an 0-2 ATS record in home games. Their struggles in those situations date back to last year, and they’re just 2-7 against the spread in their last nine contests as a home favorite. I ultimately give NC State a solid shot to pull off an upset, and they should be able to keep this game within the number.
Best College Football Bets: Results
- Justin Bales: 3-1
- John Supowitz: 2-2
- Matt LaMarca: 1-3
More NCAAF Picks: Week 5
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Best College Football Player Props – Top NCAAF Props (Weekly Update)