When it comes to baseball prop bets, strikeout props are one of the most popular options. While they aren’t always as fun as home run props, MLB strikeout props usually have more predictive value.
Because of that, we can dig into the analytics to hunt for betting value. That’s exactly what we intend to do within this article.
Best MLB Strikeout Props Today: Friday, July 25
Justin Bales runs through his best strikeout props and DFS Pick’em plays each day of the MLB season. Join Underdog Fantasy today, and jump into the action!
Joey Wentz Higher Than 3.5 Strikeouts
Wentz isn’t a great pitcher, but he’s due for positive regression. His ERA (5.71) sits well above his xERA (4.23) through 41 innings. He also ranks in the 67th and 42nd percentiles in the MLB in chase and whiff rate, but he ranks in the 28th percentile in strikeout rate.
The veteran gets an elite matchup against the Texas Rangers tonight. They own a 25.2% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching this season. The Rangers have also struggled with a .274 team wOBA against lefties in 2025.
The key here is Wentz’s cutter. He owns a 31% whiff rate on it, and it’s his best pitch by a wide margin. In two games with the Atlanta Braves, he’s thrown it 50.8% and 58% of the time. Granted, he’ll be limited as he hasn’t been stretched out in his new role, but it’s too low of a total if Wentz can go 5 innings.
Where to play: Joey Wentz Higher Than 3.5 Strikeouts | 1.80x at Underdog
MacKenzie Gore Higher Than 5.5 Strikeouts
Gore started the season as an elite option for the Washington Nationals, but he’s been struggling since the start of June. He still ranks in the 83rd and 88th percentiles in the MLB in chase and whiff rate. He boasts a 40% or better whiff rate on four of his five pitches, but he relies so heavily on his 4-seamer that it takes away from the threat of those pitches.
The left-hander gets an interesting matchup against the Minnesota Twins tonight. They rank 11th in the MLB in strikeout rate (24.2%) against left-handed pitching this season. The Twins do feature a high-upside offense, though.
We’ve seen Minnesota limit strikeouts against bad left-handed starters. Kyle Freeland (3), Shota Imanaga (1), Jose Quintana (1), and Nick Lodolo (4) have all stayed under this threshold in recent games. Tarik Skubal (13), Brandon Walter (9), Patrick Corbin (6), Kris Bubic (9), and Noah Cameron (8) all dominated them. There is some risk here, but Gore comes with 10+ strikeout upside, and I’m willing to take him at 5.5.
Where to play: MacKenzie Gore Higher Than 5.5 Strikeouts | 1.75x at Underdog
Underdog 2025 MLBSZN Picks
Kevin Gausman Less Than 176.5 Strikeouts
Not everyone ages gracefully, with a slow decline. The cliff can come fast and be unkind to some players. Unfortunately, last year’s data suggests that Kevin Gausman will fall into the second camp of players who crash instead of gradually declining.
In 2023, in 31 starts spanning 185.0 innings, Gausman had a 3.16 ERA, 3.85 xERA, 3.22 xFIP, 3.34 SIERA, 1.18 WHIP, 7.2 BB%, 31.1 K%, 33.0 O-Swing%, 84.4 Z-Contact%, 12.9 SwStr%, and 29.6 CSW%. Sadly, Gausman’s numbers cratered. In 2024, in 31 starts spanning 181.0 innings, Gausman had a 3.83 ERA, 4.71 xERA, 4.22 xFIP, 4.24 SIERA, 1.22 WHIP, 7.4 BB%, 21.4 K%, 29.8 O-Swing%, 86.6 Z-Contact%, 10.5 SwStr%, and 25.8 CSW%.
Gausman’s 3.83 ERA was a fluke, evidenced by his ERA estimators. Furthermore, his strikeout rate nosedived with a fall in O-Swing%, an uptick in Z-Contact%, and a fall in SwStr% and CSW%.
Predictably, Gausman’s stuff wasn’t as potent. The veteran righty’s average fastball velocity fell from 94.7 MPH in 2023 to 93.9 MPH in 2024. In addition, per FanGraphs, he had 101 Stuff+, 104 Location+, and 107 Pitching+ in 2023 and 97, 104, and 102 in 2024.
A pitch-by-pitch look at Gausman’s fall was even more alarming. In 2023, he had a 41.0 O-Swing% and 21.3 SwStr% on his splitter versus 37.2% and 16.0% in 2024. Gausman also had a 16.3 O-Swing% and 12.4 SwStr% on his slider in 2023 and 15.1% and 8.8% in 2024. Batters didn’t chase or swing and miss as often against Gausman’s putaway pitches, which might have resulted from a lack of fear of his diminished heater. My money is on a 34-year-old hurler’s inability to recapture his electrifying stuff, leading to fewer than 176.5 strikeouts for Gausman in 2025.
Where to play: Kevin Gausman Less Than 176.5 Strikeouts | Underdog
Pablo Lopez More Than 186.5 Strikeouts
Pablo Lopez was at the polar opposite end of the luck spectrum than Gausman in 2024. While Toronto’s hurler was extremely fortunate, Lopez couldn’t catch a break. In 32 starts spanning 185.1 innings in 2024, Lopez had a 4.08 ERA, 3.67 xERA, 3.36 xFIP, 3.46 SIERA, 1.19 WHIP, 5.3 BB%, 25.6 K%, 12.9 SwStr%, 27.8 CSW%, 94 Stuff+, 113 Location+, and 107 Pitching+. No matter your preferred ERA estimator, Lopez’s ERA estimators were all considerably better than his 4.08 ERA last season.
Lopez’s ERA should regress to under 4.00 this season. Even in an unlucky season, Lopez had a knack for piling up punchouts. He had 198 with 9.62 K/9 in 2024. Lopez was even more impressive in his first season with the Twins in 2023.
In 2023, he had 32 starts spanning 194.0 innings, a 3.66 ERA, 3.00 xERA, 3.28 xFIP, 3.37 SIERA, 1.15 WHIP, 6.0 BB%, 29.2 K%, 10.86 K/9, 234 strikeouts, 14.5 SwStr%, 30.1 CSW%, 100 Stuff+, 114 Location+, and 113 Pitching+. Lopez would smash his strikeouts prop if he reverted to his 2023 form. Yet, even a repeat of his unlucky 2024 would result in more than 186.5 strikeouts.
The projection models uniformly expect Lopez to settle in between his 2023 and 2024 numbers. Moreover, they almost unanimously projected Lopez to have over 186.5 strikeouts this year. Lopez is projected to strike out 201, 203, 182, 197, 196, 194, 199, and 199 batters by FanGraphs Depth Charts, Steamer, ZiPS, ZiPS Depth Charts, ATC, The BAT, OOPSY, and the Zeile Consensus. Only ZiPS projects him to have under 186.5 strikeouts, and they get him to 197 with the aid of the FanGraphs Depth Charts playing time projection.
Where to play: Pablo Lopez More Than 186.5 Strikeouts | Underdog
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We love the MLB DFS pick’em projections available at top-flight daily fantasy sites like Underdog and Sleeper. They offer a very similar experience to player props.
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