Not long ago, NFL fans who wanted to dive headfirst into the prop-betting pool had to wait until at least January, when bookmakers would post a handful of NFL prop bets at the start of the playoffs.
Today? Bettors who would rather wager on the team or player-specific props instead of the side or total can do so on the regular. That’s because every major sportsbook now offers a robust NFL prop-betting menu from the Thursday night season opener through Super Bowl Sunday.
So throughout the 2021-22 season, Props.com will peruse that menu and serve up our 10 favorite NFL prop bets of the week—even throwing in a free side of analysis. (What can we say? We’re givers!).
Now, this is the part where most sites would feel compelled to remind you that “the following is for informational purposes only and should not be used as the basis for any actual cash wager”—but, come on. Who are we kidding?
All odds as of 1 p.m. ET on Sept. 9.
NFL Prop Bets For Week 1
Ezekiel Elliott Over/Under 53.5 rushing yards (at Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
The line: Over -115/Under -115 (at PointsBet)
The case for the Over: Elliott assumed a heavy burden over the final 10 weeks of last season after Dallas Cowboys QB Dak Prescott went down with a season-ending injury. However, in the five games Prescott started, the Cowboys’ bruising RB eclipsed this rushing total four times—including once landing exactly on 54 yards.
The case for the Under: Tampa Bay allowed a league-low 80.6 rushing yards per game in 2020. And with Prescott returning from a broken leg, as well as a shoulder ailment that limited him in the preseason, the Bucs are likely to stack the box to stop Zeke and dare Dak to beat them.
Stefon Diggs Over/Under 6.5 receptions (vs Pittsburgh Steelers)
The line: Over -130/Under +100 (at DraftKings)
The case for the Over: Diggs has been one of the most popular NFL prop bets of Week 1. The Buffalo Bills’ big-play wideout notched at least seven catches in 12 of his team’s 18 regular season and playoff games last season. That includes in Week 13 when Diggs torched the Steelers for 10 catches (for 130 yards and a touchdown) in his team’s 26-15 home win.
The case for the Under: Did Pittsburgh simply have a bad day against Diggs last December? Perhaps, because the Steelers allowed an NFL-low 298 completions in 2020 (30 fewer than second-place Dallas). Pittsburgh’s D also led the league in lowest opponents’ completion percentage (56.7%).
Editor’s Note: New to NFL props? Check out our complete NFL Props Betting Guide to get up to speed!
Trevor Lawrence Over/Under 1.5 passing TDs (at Houston Texans)
The line: Over -118/Under -112 (at The SuperBook)
The case for the Over: Only the Lions (38) and Titans (36) surrendered more passing touchdowns in 2020 than the Texans. And did we mention that J.J. Watt (among several other quality defensive players) is no longer in Houston?
The case for the Under: Of the 10 quarterbacks drafted first overall since 2007, only four—Cam Newton (2011), Jameis Winston (2015), Baker Mayfield (2018), and Kyler Murray (2019)—have passed for more than one touchdown in their first NFL start. And all four threw for exactly two.
Derrick Henry Over/Under 0.5 rushing TDs (vs Arizona Cardinals)
The line: Over -154/Under +116 (at The SuperBook)
The case for the Over: Henry has found paydirt on the ground in 21 of the 31 games he’s played over the past two seasons, during which the Tennessee Titans workhorse has won back-to-back rushing titles.
The case for the Under: The Cardinals surrendered just 13 rushing TDs last year, tied for fourth-fewest in the league (and only three more than first-place Tampa Bay). Of those 13 TDs, only five were allowed in the season’s first 10 weeks. Also, Arizona fortified its defensive front with the offseason signing of three-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year J.J. Watt.
Justin Herbert longest completion Over/Under 35.5 yards (at Washington Football Team)
The line: Over -115/Under -110 (at BetMGM)
The case for the Over: During his rookie campaign last year, the L.A. Chargers QB completed at least one pass of 36 yards or more in nine of his 15 starts, including six of his seven road outings. What’s more, Herbert had a long completion of at least 48 yards in five of those six roadies.
The case for the Under: Washington’s pass defense was stout throughout 2020, ranking third in opponents’ completion percentage (62.4), second in yards per pass attempt (6.4), and tied for first in fewest pass completions of 20-plus yards (36). Washington didn’t allow a reception of more than 33 yards in half of its games—however, it was burned for at least one completion of 44-plus yards in the other half.
Patrick Mahomes Over/Under 311.5 passing yards (vs Cleveland Browns)
The line: Over -115/Under -105 (at BetMGM Nevada)
The case for the Over: The Kansas City Chiefs quarterback averaged 316 passing yards per game in 2020. And while he racked up “only” 255 yards in Kansas City’s divisional-round playoff victory over the Browns in January, Mahomes only played 2½ quarters before being knocked out with a concussion. Prior to the injury, Mahomes was on pace for a 408-yard day.
The case for the Under: The Browns’ pass defense ranked in the middle of the pack in 2020 but allowed more than 285 passing yards just six times in 18 games (playoffs included)—and only twice prior to Week 13.
Miami Dolphins Over/Under 20 points scored (at New England Patriots)
The line: Over -105/Under -115 (at The SuperBook)
The case for the Over: Miami topped 20 points in 12 of its final 15 games last season (including a 22-12 home win over New England in Week 15). And two of the exceptions were back-to-back games against the Bengals and Jets, when the Dolphins put up 19 and 20 points, respectively.
The case for the Under: Miami opened the 2020 season with a 20-11 loss in Foxboro. And although Tua Tagovailoa didn’t start at QB for the Dolphins that day, he made nine starts last season, during which his team produced 20.6 points per contest—and backup QB Ryan Fitzpatrick delivered a lot of those points after relieving Tua.
Alvin Kamara rushing attempts Over/Under 13.5 (vs Green Bay Packers)
The line: Over -130/Under +110 (at DraftKings)
The case for the Over: The versatile New Orleans Saints RB has averaged 11.2 rushing attempts in 60 career regular-season contests. However, with aging veteran QB Drew Brees in and out of the lineup last season, Kamara’s output jumped to 12.5 rush attempts per game. And that doesn’t include the Saints’ two playoff games when Kamara was handed the rock a combined 41 times.
The case for the Under: In his final regular-season game (Week 15) and two playoff contests in 2020, Kamara averaged a whopping 21 rushing attempts. In 14 previous games, though, his average was 11.8 and he went over 13.5 attempts just three times. Also of note, because this game was shifted from the dome in New Orleans to Jacksonville: Kamara hasn’t topped 13.5 attempts on a grass surface since a 14-carry effort at Carolina in Week 14 of the 2018 season (a span of 10 contests).
Matthew Stafford Over/Under 0.5 interceptions (vs Chicago Bears)
The line: Over +102/Under -138 (at The SuperBook)
The case for the Over: The Bears’ defense recorded 10 interceptions last season, ranking second only to the 49ers (who had 12). Two of those picks came in separate games against Stafford and his former team, the Detroit Lions. In fact, the new Los Angeles Rams QB has been picked off at least once in four straight games against Chicago (6 total INTs).
The case for the Under: For most of his 12 seasons in Detroit, where he tossed 144 INTs in 165 games, Stafford frequently was under duress and often forced to take chances while trying to rally the Lions from late-game deficits. He shouldn’t have those issues now that he’s in L.A. Also, Stafford threw only three INTs in his final eight games last season.
Baltimore Ravens-Las Vegas Raiders Over/Under 55.5 Total Points
The line: Over +145/Under -180 (at STN Sports – Station Casinos)
The case for the Over: The “alternate total” offered in this Monday Night Football clash that wraps up Week 1 is 4 points higher than the actual posted total of 50.5 at STN Sports. The Ravens averaged 29.3 points across eight regular-season road games in 2020, while visitors to brand-new Allegiant Stadium lit up the Raiders’ defense like the Vegas Strip after dusk, piling up a whopping 30.8 points in eight contests. In fact, 11 of Las Vegas’ 16 games flew over 55.5 combined points (including five of eight home games). Also, in five meetings since 2012, the Ravens and Raiders have combined for 75, 70, 55, 57, and 51 points.
The case for the Under: This is the best we could find: The Ravens and their foes eclipsed this alternate total just twice in 18 regular season and playoff games in 2020 (although both occurred on the road) and went over 51 points just six times.
