Here we go with our best college football bets for Week 9 of the NCAAF season.
Each of our Props.com analysts were asked to list their top two NCAAF picks for the weekend. You can view each writer’s overall record in the section towards the bottom of this article.
Also, don’t forget to check out our College Football Parlay Picks article for Week 9. Some of these best bets are used to create parlays each week, and we are up more than 10 units on that front so far.
Best College Football Bets: Week 9
These best college football bets were compiled earlier in the week, so there’s a chance the lines have shifted since publishing this article.
Colorado State vs. Boise State Under 43 Points
Analyst: Justin Bales
Where to bet: Under 43 total points | -107 at PointsBet
We get a matchup between two teams that lean toward the under in their games. Colorado State’s hit the under in every game this season, while Boise State’s hitting it slightly more often than they’re hitting the over.
Both of these offenses love slowing the game down. Boise State ranks 92nd in the NCAA in seconds per play (26.9) this season. Colorado State ranks 103rd in the same category (27.6). The Broncos also slow down the game more when they have a big lead, which should be the case in this game.
Boise State relies heavily on its run game, and Colorado State isn’t likely going to be able to stop them. Sure, they’re likely to stop them on occasion, but this is a situation where the Broncos should consistently find success.
On the other side, I’m not expecting Colorado State to find much success. They’ve scored 19 or fewer points in every game this season. The only aspect of their offense that they have working in their favor is that Boise State’s been better against the run than the pass this season.
Ultimately, the Broncos should find elite defensive success. They’ll likely hold Colorado State to very few points. This game will come down to how much Boise State is able to score. They should rely on the run to keep the clock moving, and they’re going to be playing at an extremely slow pace.
This isn’t an overly high total, but it’s still a bit too high for this matchup.
UCF -1.5 (vs. Cincinnati)
Analyst: Justin Bales
Where to bet: UCF -1.5 | -107 at PointsBet
Cincinnati and UCF will face off in an AAC matchup between two successful teams. Both teams have the ability to score at an extremely high rate with outstanding defenses. The main key to this bet will be the location this game is being played.
Both of these teams are averaging roughly 0.450 points per play this season. UCF’s been the better defense, holding their opponents to 0.256 points per play. Cincinnati’s also been outstanding, although they’re allowing 0.301 points per play in 2022.
As I said above, the key is where this game is being played. UCF ranks 12th in the NCAA in points per play margin (0.192) this season. That number jumps to 0.312 at home. They feature a better offense and defense in Orlando.
Cincinnati’s found plenty of success this season. They rank 19th in the country in points per play margin (0.155) this season. That number dips to 0.102 on the road, though. They’ve been worse offensively and defensively outside of Cincinnati this season.
Although I don’t see this game turning into a blowout, I do believe UCF should be a relatively solid favorite at home in this game. We’re getting better odds because of the number in front of Cincinnati’s name at the moment, but I’m expecting that to disappear after this game.
TCU -7.5 (at West Virginia)
Analyst: John Supowitz
Where to bet: TCU -7.5 | -110 at Tipico Sportsbook
TCU had one of its best tests of the season last week when it faced Kansas State’s top 25 defense. Early on, it looked like the Wildcats were going to come away with the upset holding a 28-10 lead, but the Horned Frogs switched on the turbo boosters and scored the final 28 points to come away with a win. Max Duggan did his usual, threw for 280 yards and three touchdowns, and continues leading this top-three offense.
With how well West Virginia played in the Backyard Brawl, there was optimism for the season, but sitting at 1-3 in a very competitive conference, it will be a disappointing year for the Mountaineers. The defense is absolutely awful, with the 117th scoring defense and 103rd in third-down defense. Facing a TCU offense that can score 40 without a problem will spell trouble, and I’m not trusting college football journeyman JT Daniels to keep up with other quarterbacks in the Heisman conversation.
Ohio State -14.5 (at Penn State)
Analyst: John Supowitz
Where to bet: Ohio State -14.5 | -110 at BetFred Sportsbook
No one has been rolling better than Ohio State this season. The offense has been moving like usual, being the No. 2 scoring offense thanks to CJ Stroud and an impressive group of receivers, along with TreVeyon Henderson commanding that backfield.
If you look at their game against Iowa, you’d believe they were amazing all 60 minutes, but they weren’t. They got off to a slow start, and Iowa’s defense stuffed the run game, but they still won by 45. Mainly due to Iowa having a non-existent offense.
Penn State does have an offense and a nice tandem in the backfield. Sean Clifford has improved this year, but he’s not a takeover type of guy.
A few things need to go right for the Nittany Lions to cover. They have to force turnovers, make plays on the special teams and defend in the red zone. The Buckeyes have just seven turnovers and scored a touchdown in 31-of-36 trips in the end zone.
I like PSU’s secondary, but their lack of a pass rush is what can hurt them because giving Stroud time in the pocket is dangerous. This could be like OSU’s game last week— start slow, then put the pedal to the floor, and before you know it, they’re up three touchdowns.
Kansas State -1.5 (vs. Oklahoma State)
Analyst: Matt LaMarca
Where to bet: Kansas State -1.5 | -110 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Oklahoma State managed to pull off a comeback win last week vs. the Texas Longhorns, giving them a 6-1 record for the year. That vaulted them to No. 9 in the AP Poll, and they’ve been ranked in the top 10 at some point in each of the past three years.
However, consider me skeptical of this Cowboys’ squad. They were pretty thoroughly outplayed by the Longhorns early, who had a win probability of near 90% at multiple points in that game per ESPN. They ultimately shot themselves in the foot with three turnovers, but they racked up 523 yards of total offense.
That game was at home for Oklahoma State, but now they’ll have to head on the road to face another ranked squad in Kansas State. K State is 3-1 as a home favorite this season, and they’re 8-3 against the spread in their last 11 games vs. Oklahoma State. They failed to cover in their last game, but that could actually be a good thing vs. Oklahoma State: The Wildcats are 11-1 against the spread after failing to cover the previous week. I’ll take my chances with the Wildcats as small home favorites.
Notre Dame +2.5 (at Syracuse)
Analyst: Matt LaMarca
Where to bet: Notre Dame +2.5 | -110 at FanDuel Sportsbook
It has been a year to remember for The Orange. They got off to a 6-0 start before dropping a very a tough road game vs. Clemson last week. That loss is going to make it tough to contend for an ACC title, but they’re still ranked No. 16 in the AP Poll.
Meanwhile, it’s been a year to forget for Notre Dame. They started the year ranked fifth in the country, but they’ve won just four of seven contests. They started the year by getting rocked by Ohio State, and they haven’t been able to turn things around.
However, is Syracuse really ready to contend with one of the top teams in the country? Even in a down year, Notre Dame has as much talent on their roster as any other team in football. They rank 10th in the country in 247’s Composite Talent Index, while Syracuse is a distant 68th. That’s a massive disparity, and it’s hard to overcome such a wide gap in talent.
The public unsurprisingly loves Syracuse in this spot – America loves a good underdog story – but the sharps are all over the Irish. They’ve received 72% of the dollars on just 40% of the bets, and I’m expecting them to lose for the second-straight week.
Best College Football Bets: Results
- Justin Bales: 6-6
- Matt LaMarca: 6-6
- John Supowitz: 5-7
More NCAAF Picks: Week 8
College Football Parlay Picks – Best NCAAF Parlays (Weekly Update)
Best College Football Player Props – Top NCAAF Props (Weekly Update)
