Here we go with our best college football bets for Week 13 of the NCAAF season.
Each of our Props.com analysts were asked to list their top two NCAAF picks for the weekend. You can view each writer’s overall record in the section towards the bottom of this article.
Also, don’t forget to check out our College Football Parlay Picks article for Week 13. Some of these best bets are used to create parlays each week, and we are up more than 10 units on that front so far.
Best College Football Bets: Week 13
These best college football bets were compiled earlier in the week, so there’s a chance the lines have shifted since publishing this article.
Tulsa vs. Houston Over 67 total points
Analyst: Justin Bales
Where to bet: Over 67 total points | -110 at Caesars Sportsbook
Houston is a team that generally plays in shootouts, and I don’t see any reason why that’d be different this weekend. Tulsa is a fast-paced offense that is willing to get into shootouts as well.
Houston currently ranks eighth in the NCAA in points per play (0.530). They’re averaging 0.708 points per play over their last three games as well. On the other side, Tulsa is averaging 0.378 points per play. This isn’t great by any stretch, but I’m also not overly concerned about it.
The key here will be the defenses. The Golden Hurricanes rank 116th in the country in points allowed per play (0.487). Houston is currently allowing 0.448 points per play, which ranks 112th in the country. Both of these defenses have struggled throughout the season.
Houston is an offense that should be able to score against anyone, so I don’t feel the need to outline them much. Tulsa runs roughly a 50/50 split in terms of runs and passes, although the majority of their yards come through the air. Houston’s giving up 7.7 yards per pass attempt this season, and there’s very little reason to believe they’ll slow down Tulsa’s offense.
Both of these passing games should find plenty of success, which will result in points. If Tulsa is the team pushing the pace, we should see both teams score 30+ points.
New Mexico State vs. Liberty Under 51 total points
Analyst: Justin Bales
Where to bet: Under 51 total points | -110 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Liberty gets an interesting matchup against New Mexico State this weekend. This is a clear mismatch between these two teams, and we can take advantage of that.
Liberty’s found plenty of offensive success this season, ranking 50th in points per play (0.410). They’ve struggled a bit in recent games, though, scoring 22 or fewer points in three of their last five contests.
On the other side, New Mexico State hasn’t flashed offensive potential this season. They rank 113th in the NCAA in points per play (0.275). That number dips to 0.196 on the road as well. The Aggies have scored 23 or fewer points in four of their last five games.
New Mexico State doesn’t boast a great defense. They’ve seen mixed results, but they’ve struggled more often than not. More importantly, Liberty boasts an elite defense. The Flames rank 33rd in the country in points allowed per play (0.321) in 2022.
Liberty is a team that is willing to push the pace in their games, but I anticipate they’ll slow the game down once they get a comfortable lead. Oddly enough, New Mexico State is a player that loves slowing their games down, and that will help the under overall.
Essentially, this game is going to come down to how efficiently New Mexico State can stop Liberty. I’m not expecting the former to score much this weekend, and I don’t expect the latter to be able to make up the rest of this total.
Michigan +7.5 (at Ohio state)
Analyst: John Supowitz
Where to bet: Michigan +7.5 | -110 at Tipico Sportsbook
This is the game of the year, at least as of now. Like last year, so much is riding on this game – a trip to the Big Ten championship and the CFB playoffs.
The Buckeyes are at the top of a lot of people’s power rankings. CJ Stroud is a favorite to hoist the Heisman, and he is coming in leading the FBS in passer efficiency and passing touchdowns. The loss of Chris Olave and Garret Wilson was not a huge hit, especially when you have Marvin Harrison Jr. and Emeka Egbuka.
What makes them even better than last year is the improvement of the defense. Coach Ryan Day said to watch out for this linebacker core, and he was right.
Michigan isn’t as offensively flashy as Ohio State, but they still get it done. The big question is running back Blake Corum’s availability as he’s been dealing with an injury. For a game like this, he should suit up, but how healthy will he be?
J.J. McCarthy has proven to come through when he needs to and had some big plays in the win against Illinois, so he may need to play even better.
The defense is where the Wolverines shine as they ranked second in points allowed, rushing defense, and fifth in passing defense. It will come down to Michigan’s defense vs. Ohio State’s offense and who will allow the other side breathing room to make plays.
Here’s the thing — we only know what we’ve seen from these teams through the other games. Each team will have plays they’ve saved just for this game, and to be honest, neither team has played any tough competition.
Revenge is on the mind of Ohio State, and losing to Michigan in The Horseshoe while missing the Big Ten championship again would be soul-crushing. I’m taking Ohio State to win, but Michigan to cover.
Notre Dame +5.5 (at USC)
Analyst: John Supowitz
Where to bet: Notre Dame +5.5 | -110 at BetFred Sportsbook
USC continues to be an incredible team and one of the most dynamic offenses in the country. Caleb Williams will definitely be in New York on the first Saturday in December, as he’s one of the best quarterbacks in the league.
The wheels did not completely fall off for Notre Dame. They’ve moved in a better direction and now have some impressive wins against Clemson, North Carolina, and Syracuse.
The ground game has improved significantly with Audric Estime, Logan Diggs, and Chris Tyree, which has taken the pressure off of Drew Pyne. The defense has vastly improved over the season, especially on the line of scrimmage, and has now moved into the top 20 in total offense.
As great as USC has been by 40+ points in nine games this year, the defense has played on skates in many of those games. They allowed Cal and Arizona to get their second-highest point totals of the season, and they are two scoring offenses out of the top 50.
We’ve seen the Fighting Irish play up and down to their competition, but the Trojans have also looked vulnerable more than once against inferior opponents. ND has covered in all three true road games this year and all four as an underdog or pick ’em. Notre Dame could make this into a fight, which is not USC’s game.
Auburn +22 (at Alabama)
Analyst: Matt LaMarca
Where to bet: Auburn +22 | -110 at BetMGM
One of the best rivalries in college football renews on Saturday, with Auburn heading to Alabama to take on the Crimson Tide. Alabama is a sizable favorite in this matchup, and they have won 10 of the past 14 Iron Bowls. However, Auburn has won two of the past five, knocking off No. 1 ranked Alabama in 2017 and No. 5 ranked Alabama in 2019. These two teams also played a thrilling quadruple-overtime contest last year, which Alabama ultimately won by two points.
Auburn has been down this season, but expect to see their best performance against their biggest rivals. They’ve also played better since Cadillac Williams took over at head coach, winning two of three games. Their only loss in that stretch came in overtime against Mississippi State, while they’ve recorded wins over Texas A&M and Western Kentucky.
Alabama has put together another strong season, but this isn’t the same dominant squad we’ve seen in years past. They already have two losses – one to LSU, one to Tennessee – and they’ve managed to escape with some close wins in other contests. They beat Texas by a point, Texas A&M by four, and Ole Miss by six. Asking them to beat their rivals by more than three touchdowns feels like a lot, even if Auburn is a bit weaker than usual. War Damn Eagle.
Vanderbilt +14 (vs. Tennessee)
Analyst: Matt LaMarca
Where to bet: Vanderbilt +14 | -105 at PointsBet
Tennessee has had a fantastic season, but how in the world are they going to be motivated for this matchup? They just dropped their second game of the year – a 63-38 loss vs. South Carolina – which has essentially eliminated them from playoff consideration. They’re not going to make the SEC championship game, so they’re likely headed for a lower-tier bowl game.
The team is also going to have to finish up the season without star quarterback Hendon Hooker. He suffered a torn ACL late against South Carolina, and he’s been a legit Heisman Trophy candidate this season. He’s racked up 3,135 passing yards, 27 touchdowns, and two interceptions in his 11 games, and he added another five scores on the ground. He ranks third in the league in adjusted yards per attempt and passing efficiency rating, so replacing him will be easier said than done.
Add it all up, and Vanderbilt has a significant edge in this spot. The sharps are all over the Commodores, who have received 69% of the bets and 85% of the dollars. This line has dipped to 13.5 at some locations, so get them at +14.0 while you still can.
Best College Football Bets: Results
- Matt LaMarca: 13-7
- Justin Bales: 10-10
- John Supowitz: 9-11
More NCAAF Picks: Week 13
College Football Parlay Picks – Best NCAAF Parlays (Weekly Update)
Best College Football Player Props – Top NCAAF Props (Weekly Update)