Here we go with our best college football bets for Week 12 of the NCAAF season.
Each of our Props.com analysts were asked to list their top two NCAAF picks for the weekend. You can view each writer’s overall record in the section towards the bottom of this article.
Also, don’t forget to check out our College Football Parlay Picks article for Week 12. Some of these best bets are used to create parlays each week, and we are up more than 10 units on that front so far.
Best College Football Bets: Week 12
These best college football bets were compiled earlier in the week, so there’s a chance the lines have shifted since publishing this article.
Houston at East Carolina Over 67.5 total points
Analyst: Justin Bales
Where to bet: Over 67.5 total points | -109 at Barstool Sportsbook
We have a matchup between two solid offenses. It’s been known that Houston is willing to get into shootouts, and East Carolina is the type of team that is likely willing to oblige this weekend.
East Carolina currently ranks 50th in the NCAA in points per play (0.411). That total jumps to 0.434 at home as well. On the other side, Houston ranks 11th in the same category (0.522) this season. That number jumps to 0.545 on the road and 0.722 over their last three games.
Defensively, East Carolina’s found more success. They currently rank 60th in the NCAA in points allowed per play (0.378). This certainly isn’t the best number in the country, though, and I’m not overly concerned with it. Houston ranks 117th in the country in the same category (0.479). They haven’t been able to stop anyone, and that isn’t expected to change in this game.
Both of these teams rely heavily on the pass, and that’s going to be a major key to this game. East Carolina is giving up a ridiculous 8.8 yards per pass attempt in 2022. This ranks 125th in the country. Houston hasn’t been much better, giving up 7.9 yards per pass attempt this season.
I don’t necessarily love the pace that either team plays at, but they should both struggle defensively. Houston is on an elite streak at the moment, and they aren’t going to be able to slow down the East Carolina offense. We should see plenty of points in this game.
NC State at Louisville Under 45 total points
Analyst: Justin Bales
Where to bet: Under 45 total points | -110 at Unibet
This game is relatively interesting at the moment because there is one major unknown factor. Malik Cunningham is currently questionable with a shoulder injury. This would be the senior’s final home game, so I expect him to do everything he can to play.
That said, it’ll be difficult for him to play at the highest level with a right shoulder injury. It’s clear that the Louisville offense is at its best with him on the field, but they likely won’t be peaking at this point in the season.
Louisville currently ranks 53rd in the NCAA in points per play (0.408) this season. They’ve seen plenty of ups and downs at times, though. NC State hasn’t performed as well offensively, ranking 91st in the league in the same category (0.324).
The one consistent with both of these teams has been defense. Louisville currently ranks 23rd in the country in points per play allowed (0.297). That number dips to 0.226 at home as well. NC State’s been nearly as good, ranking 26th in that category (0.308).
Louisville focuses heavily on the run in their offense, specifically with Cunningham starting. NC State features one of the best run defenses in the NCAA, though, allowing only 3.5 yards per carry this season. If Cunningham doesn’t start, I’m not overly concerned, as that will be a massive drop for their offense.
On the other side, NC State has stalled overall as an offense, although they rely more on the pass. I’m expecting Louisville to find plenty of defensive success against anything NC State has to offer.
Overall, this should be a defensive game regardless of who is healthy. I slightly lean toward NC State winning, and they’ll have to do that with their defense.
Illinois +18 (at Michigan)
Analyst: John Supowitz
Where to bet: Illinois +18 | -110 at Tipico Sportsbook
Hopefully, the Wolverines are not looking to their big matchup against Ohio State because they still have one more game before that as they host the Fighting Illini.
Illinois is in a three-way tie with Iowa and Purdue in the Big Ten West, and it could get more complicated because none of these teams has won against both.
Illinois has one of the better running backs in the Big Ten in Chase Brown, who is averaging 144.2 rushing yards per game, and with 28 carries per game, they establish the offense through him. This is a strength vs. strength matchup with the Wolverines’ No. 1 rushing defense that will concentrate on stopping Brown.
Michigan will have the same game plan with Blake Corum, who comes in with 17 touchdowns. The Illinois rushing defense has been just as good as they’re seventh in rushing yards allowed and have only given up five touchdowns.
These two are built similarly, but the Wolverines have a much better roster. This could come down to which quarterback will make a play when called on.
This has the stink of a trap game all over it, but I trust Michigan to make a couple of defining offensive plays and a couple of stops to pull it out in the end.
Georgia -22.5 (at Kentucky)
Analyst: John Supowitz
Where to bet: Georgia -22.5 | -110 at BetFred Sportsbook
Georgia is what we like to call fine-tuning their team before the playoffs. They are the clear No. 1, with both sides of the ball playing well.
Stetson Bennett has proven to be an effective leader under center and bumped his completion percentage to 67.5 this year and is seventh in QBR.
Kentucky has been great against the pass this season, but so have some other Georgia opponents. The problem for them will be that the Bulldogs have two massive backs with the size and strength of a tight end but the athleticism of a wide receiver. No one has had an answer to stop Darnell Washington and Brock Bowers all year.
The Wildcats have failed in every important game and are just 1-4 against ranked opponents this year. Will Levis has missed time due to injury, and he could very well be hurt because he has not played well in the last few weeks.
Every loss has been different — they’ve lost in the turnover battle, the defense has not made a stop on third down, and the offense has not been able to make big plays.
The Kentucky offensive line has been inefficient all season, and the Georgia line should shut them down. The Bulldogs should get up big, and even if they slow down in the second half, Kentucky isn’t good enough to take advantage of it.
Navy +16.5 (at UCF)
Analyst: Matt LaMarca
Where to bet: Navy +16.5 | -110 at BetMGM
I’m beginning to sound like a broken record at this point, but if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. I’ve been on Navy virtually every week as a large underdog, and I’m going right back to the well this week vs. UCF.
Navy’s style of football is something that most teams are not fully prepared for. They’re one of the few teams that still use the triple-option, so they keep the ball on the ground for most of the game. They’ve averaged 238.7 yards rushing yards per game, which keeps the clock running. That tends to shorten games, which results in fewer possessions for the superior team to establish its dominance.
The Midshipmen fell behind Notre Dame by 22 points last week, but they were able to keep the Irish off the scoreboard in the second half. That allowed them to close the deficit to just three points at the final whistle, preserving their perfect record as large underdogs. They’re now 4-0 against the spread when getting at least 14 points this season, and they’re 18-6-1 in that scenario since 2005.
UCF is the better team in this matchup, but they’re not as good as Notre Dame. If Navy can cover in that spot, they can do it again.
Baylor +2.5 (vs. TCU)
Analyst: Matt LaMarca
Where to bet: Baylor +2.5 | -105 at PointsBet
TCU is currently ranked No. 4 in AP poll, and they’re in a position to make the College Football Playoff if they win out. They’re currently sitting at 10-0, and they have five wins against ranked opponents.
That said, it’s fair to wonder just how good TCU is. The sharps have their doubts about them, and they’ve played in a lot of close games. Their win against Oklahoma State was particularly fortunate, overcoming a 14-point deficit in the fourth quarter. They’ve also gotten to face a few backup quarterbacks after starters went down with injuries during the game.
Eventually, TCU’s brutal gauntlet of a schedule is going to catch up to them. They face another tough matchup this week vs. Baylor, who will be looking to rebound after a disappointing performance last week. We should see their best effort in this spot, especially since TCU ended their chances at a playoff berth last year. It would be excellent revenge for the Bears to reverse those roles in 2022.
I’m hoping we get a +3.0 before kickoff, but that doesn’t seem likely. The sharps are all over the Bears, who have received 55% of the spread dollars on just 21% of the bets. Even at +2.5, they’re still one of my favorite plays of the week.
Best College Football Bets: Results
- Matt LaMarca: 11-7
- Justin Bales: 9-9
- John Supowitz: 7-11
More NCAAF Picks: Week 12
College Football Parlay Picks – Best NCAAF Parlays (Weekly Update)
Best College Football Player Props – Top NCAAF Props (Weekly Update)
