Will the Yankees win tonight at home and advance to the ALDS?
If you’re looking for Yankees vs Red Sox predictions, you’re in the right place!
The Yankees will host the Red Sox in a Wild Card Series that brings back one of baseball’s most storied rivalries.
Gone are the Varitek vs. A-Rod brawls from the early 2000s, but in are the Garrett Crochet vs. Max Fried pitching duels, with everything on the line in October baseball.
Aaron Judge put together another phenomenal campaign, posting absolutely absurd numbers with a .451 ISO and .502 wOBA vs. left-handed pitchers.
But here’s the elephant in the room nobody wants to discuss. Judge has been a career .205 hitter in the postseason, which simply isn’t going to cut it for a superstar who’s supposed to carry this franchise when it matters most.
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Will The Yankees Win Tonight: Boston vs. New York Predictions – Game 3
We’re witnessing another historic AL Wild Card Series between the Yankees and Red Sox.
Garrett Crochet was absolutely phenomenal for the Red Sox before handing it over to former Yankee Aroldis Chapman in the ninth to win Game 1.
Ben Rice and Jazz Chisholm were the difference-makers in the Yankees’ Game 2 win.
The stage is set in the Bronx for a winner-take-all Game 3. Will the Yankees win tonight?
Why The Red Sox Will Win
Connelly Early is a left-handed pitcher out of the Red Sox system, a highly touted prospect who’s been absolutely dynamite in four regular-season starts. He struck out 11 batters in his opening performance against the Athletics earlier in September, then punched out seven hitters on two separate occasions.
He’s surrendered no more than two earned runs in any of his four starts so far. Sure, he hasn’t completed six innings yet, but for a kid to perform this well right out of the gate is massive for Boston.
Early is striking out a whopping 36% of hitters while keeping the ball on the ground – he’s pretty much doing everything right. Now, this represents quite a jump.
This will be the biggest game of his life by far, and we’ll see if he can navigate this Yankees lineup. Both bullpens are pretty taxed at this point, so his leash length remains a legitimate question mark.
If there’s anything working for the Red Sox despite Early’s first-ever postseason start, it’s that the Yankees were wildly chasing pitches against left-handed pitcher Gerrit Crochet at times.
We’ve seen the Yankees play up and down to their counterparts on the mound – they’ve been really bad against pitchers with elite stuff and really good against arms with mediocre offerings. Early has a ton of stuff, which doesn’t bode well for New York.
The Red Sox also have the far superior manager in Alex Cora. If the Yankees lose tonight, manager Aaron Boone should be as good as gone.
Why The Yankees Will Win
Some of these NYY righties – Judge and Stanton specifically – traditionally smoke left-handed pitching. Judge owns a ridiculous .444 ISO and .583 wOBA against lefties over the last 30 days. Stanton carries a .277 ISO and .401 wOBA against southpaws across the season.
It’ll be fascinating to see what Boone does with his left-handed hitters in the lineup. Ben Rice is absolutely on fire. Jazz Chisholm is a game-changer. Both are difference-makers on the field and at the plate, yet Boone benched them in key situations this series.
The Yankees will throw out one of their highly-touted youngsters as well, Cam Schlittler, a right-handed pitcher who’s been very solid this season with a 27.5% strikeout rate while not surrendering much hard contact.
He’s been really good against left-handed hitters, surrendering just a 5% barrel rate, which helps neutralize Jarren Duran, veteran Masataka Yoshida, and Nathaniel Lowe (and maybe Wilyer Abreu).
Schlittler has actually been worse against righties, so Trevor Story and Alex Bregman become huge for Boston’s offense. Bregman has been great, showing reverse splits as a right-handed hitter with a .216 ISO and .353 wOBA against righties this season.
This game might come down to whichever starting pitcher can provide more quality length. Schlittler has more experience than Early, and we’ll see if Early’s swing-and-miss stuff translates into what’s by far the biggest game of his young career.
This would be the biggest game of most pitchers’ careers, honestly. The level of stress and anxiety facing a hostile road environment in the Bronx for an elimination game – it’s a monumental jump.
Yankees vs Red Sox Predictions: Expert Picks – Game 3
So, will the Yankees win tonight?
Judge, despite not hitting any thundering home runs in this series, has looked pretty good at the plate. I’m leaning toward his over 1.5 total bases if I’m looking for anything to bet.
I also like Schlittler’s pitching outs at 11.5 on most major books. It’s pretty juiced, but you can find something reasonable in the minus-150 range. I’ll put it this way – if Schlittler doesn’t give the Yankees four innings, I don’t like their odds of winning this one, although they are currently minus-158 favorites on the moneyline.
