As we approach Thursday Night Football, we’ve identified two key PrizePicks NFL plays for the Giants vs. Cowboys matchup that offer excellent value based on projections, game script, and sportsbook lines.
Both plays are supported by data and strategic insight, which is crucial when aiming for success on PrizePicks NFL. Let’s dive into these two key picks and break down why they’re poised to hit.
Thursday Night Targets: Week 4 PrizePicks NFL TNF Preview
Let’s break down these plays and the reasons behind each pick, so you can take full advantage this evening.
Play 1: Wan’Dale Robinson > 35.5 Receiving Yards
Wan’Dale Robinson is a name you should have on your radar this Thursday night. PrizePicks NFL has his receiving yard number set at 35.5, while sportsbooks have odds of -110 for him to hit the over. The real value comes when you look at various industry projections, which have Robinson pegged for over 50 receiving yards, giving you plenty of wiggle room to hit the over on PrizePicks.
The Giants are coming into this game as 4-point underdogs, which often leads to a more pass-heavy game script. When a team is trailing, especially against a solid Cowboys defense, they’ll likely need to pass the ball more frequently to stay in the game. Robinson is projected for around 9 targets, making him a primary option in the Giants’ passing attack.
What makes this play even more appealing is the Cowboys’ vulnerability after the catch. According to Covers.com, the Cowboys are giving up the second-most yards after catch in the league. Given Robinson’s playmaking ability, he’s in a great spot to rack up yards after the catch and easily surpass the 35.5-yard mark. All signs point to a busy night for Robinson, making this one of the best plays on the board for Thursday night.
Play 2: Ezekiel Elliott > 36.5 Rushing and Receiving Yards
Next, let’s focus on Ezekiel Elliott, who sits at 36.5 rushing and receiving yards on PrizePicks—a full 2 yards lower than other sportsbooks, which have him at 38.5. Projections are even more favorable, with Elliott expected to gain almost 40 rushing yards alone, along with an additional 12+ receiving yards. This play offers a significant advantage due to the 2-yard discrepancy on PrizePicks.
The Cowboys are 4-point favorites in this matchup, and when a team is ahead, especially in the second half, they typically lean more on their run game to control the clock. Elliott is expected to benefit from this game script as the Cowboys aim to maintain their lead and manage time of possession.
Adding to the value is the Giants’ defensive struggles against the run. According to Covers.com, the Giants have the second-worst run defense efficiency in the league, allowing nearly 5 yards per carry. Elliott, a seasoned veteran, should have no trouble taking advantage of this soft run defense, and with his involvement in the passing game as well, hitting the over on 36.5 rushing and receiving yards is a strong and logical play.
Final Thoughts: Thursday Night’s Best PrizePicks NFL Plays
To recap, here are the top PrizePicks plays for Thursday night’s matchup between the Giants and Cowboys:
Wan’Dale Robinson MORE Than 35.5 Receiving Yards – Projections and game script align perfectly for Robinson to surpass this line, especially with the Cowboys’ defensive issues with yards after catch.
Ezekiel Elliott MORE Than 36.5 Rushing and Receiving Yards – A 2-yard line discrepancy and a favorable game script make this an attractive play, with Elliott facing a vulnerable Giants run defense.
Tip of the Day: Use Line Discrepancies to Your Advantage
When playing on PrizePicks, always keep an eye out for line discrepancies between sportsbooks and PrizePicks NFL projections.
In the case of Ezekiel Elliott, a 2-yard difference between PrizePicks and other books gives you an edge. Since PrizePicks doesn’t adjust payouts based on odds, identifying these small differences can be key to increasing your long-term profitability.