Calvin Kattar will headline a free UFC Fight Night on Saturday in Austin, TX. Wait, are we sure this isn’t a pay-per-view? It’s not? What a treat!
Kattar serves as the headliner, taking on a tough-as-nails featherweight in Josh Emmett. Looking through the rest of the card, longtime UFC fans will recognize names like Donald Cerrone and Joe Lauzon. It’s probably best for bettors to glaze over that draw, as the card is packed with other matchups between serious contenders with knockout ability.
To break down those finishing chances (from a betting point of view), we’ll analyze striking and grappling data from ufcstats.com. We can estimate KO and submission probabilities by using striking and control time ratios from a fighter’s previous applicable fights. Metrics like SL/KO (strikes landed per knockout) and CTRL/sub (seconds in grappling control per submission) are helpful in that regard.
With that, let’s dive into the UFC Fight Night predictions with respect to the betting odds.
UFC Fight Night Odds
| Time (ET) | Favorite | Underdog |
|---|---|---|
| 9:00 PM | Calvin Kattar -230 | Josh Emmett +195 |
| 8:00 PM | Kevin Holland -280 | Tim Means +235 |
| 6:00 PM | Adrian Yanez -280 | Tony Kelley +235 |
Odds via DraftKings as of noon ET on June 16.
Calvin Kattar (23-5) vs Josh Emmett (17-2)
In his most recent main event, 34-year-old Calvin Kattar came through as a big underdog against dangerous up-and-coming striker Giga Chikadze. With that win, Kattar proved that a fighter has to match Chikadze’s extreme toughness in order to win. Elite striking and grappling help too.
Kattar’s opponent, Josh Emmett, packs similar toughness coupled with a right-handed sledgehammer. At 37 years old, Emmett’s resume almost rivals Kattar’s. There’s only one key difference: Emmett has been finished once in the UFC. Kattar has not.
The stakes are high in this matchup: The victor makes a strong case to face the winner of Alexander Volkanovski and Max Holloway — who are competing in the trilogy Featherweight title bout.
UFC Fight Night Predictions: Kattar vs Emmett
We are removing Kattar’s fights against Max Holloway and Zabit Magomedsharipov from his dataset since Emmett hasn’t faced champion-caliber fighters like them. If the fight were to go the full 25 minutes, our model projects:
- 102 sig strikes landed for Kattar, vs 103 for Emmett
- Roughly 1 takedown landed each, with a slight edge for Kattar. Hardly any control time.
- 41% KO chance for Kattar, 7% for Emmett.
- Projected to go 2.6 rounds.
The over/under is set at 4.5 rounds on DraftKings, likely because of the toughness of the two men. Emmett’s chin has been previously exposed, and he throws his right hand with purpose whenever he’s in the octagon. Additionally, Emmett has never taken part in a five-round fight, so we can’t be sure he’ll have the cardio to meet that sig strike projection.
We like the under 4.5 rounds at +115. Kattar is a bit expensive at -240, but his moneyline is ripe for a parlay.
Prediction: Kattar by KO/TKO (+215)
Kevin Holland (22-7) vs Tim Means (32-12-1)
A Texas native, 29-year-old Kevin Holland comes into this Welterweight bout after a successful KO against veteran Alex Oliveira. That was Holland’s debut in the Welterweight division. Previously, he earned a solid record at Middleweight, though his base was too lean to contend with the best 185-pound grapplers.
Holland’s opponent is the elder statesman, Tim Means. At 38 years old, Means is 14-9 as a UFC Welterweight. That’s a near-identical record to Holland’s most recent opponent. Means is well-rounded with decent striking and solid grappling skills, but he doesn’t excel in any category. He’ll be yielding the height and reach advantage to Holland.
UFC Fight Night Prediction: Holland vs Means
We will assess the data from Holland’s only Welterweight fight, filled in with an additional fight’s worth of average Welterweight numbers. For Means, we’ll look at the last five years since he has spent a decade in the UFC. In 15 minutes of action, prior striking and grappling ratios suggest:
- 82.1 sig. strikes for Holland, 78.4 for Means
- 2.1 takedowns for Means, with 2:37 control time
- 64% KO chance for Holland, 19.6% KO, and 7% sub probabilities for Means
Even at Middleweight, Holland possessed serious finishing power that had many excited about his future. He is content to eat strikes in return, but he has never been KO’d in the UFC.
On the other hand, Means has been knocked out by a similar reckless striker. If “The Dirty Bird” can keep this fight on the ground for more than the projected 2.5 minutes, that would be crucial. In a three-round fight, we like Holland KO/TKO +200 and Means sub +1800 more than the under 2.5 rounds at even money.
Again, Holland is expensive at -280, but his moneyline is great for a parlay.
Prediction: Holland by KO/TKO (+200)
Adrian Yanez (15-3) vs Tony Kelley (8-2)
Another Texan with a bright future, 28-year-old Bantamweight Adrian Yanez is 4-0 in the UFC with three KO victories. Yanez does not earn knockouts by loading up on punches, but by applying his strong technical boxing to accumulate damage on his opponents. Yanez is the son of a boxer, and he has a great fight IQ. To that point, he took the head coaching job at his Houston gym when renowned Texas MMA coach Saul Soliz passed away from COVID.
His opponent, Tony Kelley, is older and less experienced than Yanez. He has some knockout power, though Kelley will lean on his big frame to limit Yanez’s offense. Neither man has been finished in the UFC.
UFC Fight Night Predictions: Yanez vs Kelley
In the final fight of the prelims, three rounds of action project:
- 90 sig. strikes landed for Yanez, 85 for Kelley
- 1 minute of control for each
- 18% KO chance for Yanez, 4% for Kelley. 77% chance it goes to the scorecards, slight edge Yanez
With Kelley’s ability to grapple and extend the fight, betting this match to go the distance (+110) is appealing. However, Yanez looked sharp last time out (against “Dangerous” Davey Grant), so it’s difficult to bet against a finish. Yanez truly improves with each fight. It can also be tough to back a fighter when it looks like his fate will be in the judges’ hands, but we like the Yanez moneyline at -280 to complete our parlay.
Prediction: Yanez by decision (+175)
