The UFC returns to Singapore this Saturday night, reinstating what was an annual tradition before the COVID-19 pandemic. That is a welcome sign for fight fans and anyone looking forward to a normal summer with global travel open for business. It’s also a welcome sign for bettors. We are looking to help on that front, as this article will outline the top UFC 275 predictions, odds, and best bets.
To break down those finish chances for bettors, we analyze striking and grappling data from ufcstats.com. Using striking and control time ratios from a fighter’s previous applicable fights, we can estimate KO and submission probabilities with metrics like SL/KO (strikes landed per knockout) and CTRL/sub (seconds in grappling control per submission).
With that, let’s take a deep dive into the UFC 275 predictions, odds, and value picks for this card.
UFC 275 Odds
| Favorite | Underdog | Time (ET) |
|---|---|---|
| Jiri Prochazka -200 | Glover Teixeira +170 | 12:00 AM |
| Valentina Shevchenko -630 | Taila Santos +450 | 11:30 PM |
| Manuel Kape -220 | Rogerio Bontorin +180 | 10:30 PM |
| Jack Della Maddalena -155 | Ramazan Emeev +135 | 10:00 PM |
| Batgerel Danaa -140 | Kyung Ho Kang +120 | 7:30 PM |
Odds via DraftKings as of 1:30 p.m. ET on June 9.
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Glover Teixeira (33-7) vs. Jiri “BJP” Prochazka (28-3-1)
Fighting out of Danbury, CT by way of Brazil, 42-year-old Glover Teixeira is on a six-fight win streak that culminated in him taking the UFC Light Heavyweight Belt from Jan Blachowicz via second-round submission.
Keys for Teixeira: Improved cardio is the key to Teixeira’s recent success. Formerly content to stand and strike with combatants or lie on his back and work his jiu-jitsu, he now wrestles aggressively from the opening bell until his opponent taps out. The improved conditioning yields Teixeira an extremely durable chin, as well. The Champ almost uses getting knocked down as an offensive maneuver – as his opponent sniffs blood and overextends, Teixeira grabs him and brings him down into his realm.
Keys for Prochazka: Jiri Prochazka surely believes Teixeira won’t be getting back up from his knockdown. The 28-year-old from the Czech Republic has taken an unprecedented route to a title fight with only 2 UFC fights under his belt. Fans are hardly complaining though after Prochazka ended each of those fights against high-profile opponents with a vicious KO. His awkward movements and feints coupled with a tantalizing ability to stay out of his opponent’s range may be the key to setting up that perfect strike against Teixeira others could not find.
Teixeira Vs Prochazka Odds & Betting Action
As of Friday at 2:00 p.m. ET, BetMGM reports that Teixeira is seeing 54% of moneyline bets, but Prochazka accounts for 66% of the moneyline handle.
UFC 275 Predictions: Teixeira vs Prochazka
We’re going to only assess the data from Teixeira’s six-win run, since it started before Prochazka even entered the UFC. Without any real UFC grappling action in Prochazka’s data, we have to assume he is average for the weight class in that category. If the fight were to go the full 25 minutes, our model projects:
- 5.5 minutes of control and 35% submission chance for the Champ
- 105 to 71 significant strike advantage and 58% KO chance for the Challenger
- 0% chance this fight goes the distance
At -500 odds for the fight to not go the distance, we like that as a parlay piece. Our Prochazka KO chance is right with the market at -135, and we see value in a Teixeira submission at +330.
The Pick: Prochazka by KO (-135 at DraftKings)
Valentina “Bullet” Shevchenko (22-3) vs Taila Santos (19-1)
Valentina Shevchenko is scary. The 34-year-old from Kyrgyzstan won the UFC Women’s Flyweight belt in 2018 and has defended it 6 times since. And she has won every facet of each fight in the process: dominant wrestling, dangerous stand-up kickboxing, and she flashes strong submission ability.
Brazil’s Taila Santos could be viewed as Shevchenko lite. She possesses that same powerful grappling and deadly-quick striking, though not as strong in the stand-up game. Her most dangerous strikes come in the clinch or on the ground through her Muay Thai style. At 28, she gets the title shot after a string of convincing UFC wins topped with a first-round submission of veteran Joanne Wood.
Santos will likely look to avoid distance striking and utilize the clinch to limit damage and maybe get some offense going.
Shevchenko vs Santos Odds & Betting Action
As of Friday afternoon, BetMGM reports that 84% of bets and 78% of the handle are supporting Santos on the underdog moneyline.
UFC 275 Predictions: Shevchenko vs Santos
Again, we’re going to limit the data to 2019 and forward for Shevchenko, the same year Santos entered the UFC. Again 5 rounds for a title fight, past striking and control ratios project:
- Roughly 2 takedowns and 6 minutes of control for each fighter
- Virtually no finish chance for Santos, but a 20% chance for a Shevchenko KO
- 73% chance for this fight to go the distance
Not getting finished by Valentina Shevchenko is a win in itself, and Taila Santos has shown enough defense and durability to at least survive. At almost pick ‘em odds, we see value on the go-the-distance bet. Shevchenko -630 should be plenty safe in a parlay as well.
The Pick: Shevchenko by decision (+100 at DraftKings)
Other UFC 275 Predictions
Rogerio Bontorin vs. Manel Kape
The Pick: Manel Kape wins by KO (+130 at DraftKings)
Analysis: Kape has 2 straight KO victories after starting his UFC career with 2 close decision losses against ranked fighters in the fast-paced 125-pound division. His 78 SL/KO is way under the Flyweight average of 240, good for a projected 83.5% KO chance. Bontorin is slumping and was knocked out in the first round of a recent fight.
**UPDATE: Bontorin vs Kape has been canceled and removed from the card.
Jack Della Maddalena vs. Ramazan Emeev
The Pick: Maddalena vs Emeev to go the distance (-175 at DraftKings)
Analysis: We like this Welterweight bout to go the distance at -175 vs. our projected 82.6% chance. Della Maddalena is a strong striker who claimed the opening spot on the main card with a first-round KO in his UFC debut over another rookie prospect. Ramazan Emeev on the other side is a savvy vet with elite combat sambo wrestling. Having never been involved in a stoppage on either side in the UFC, we expect Emeev to draw this fight out the 3 rounds with his grappling.
Kyung Ho Kang vs. Batgerel Danaa
The Pick: Kang vs Danaa to not go the distance (-120 at DraftKings)
Analysis: We move all the way down from the main card to the early prelims, as the not-go-the-distance line for this Bantamweight matchup looks too good to be true at -120 vs. our projected 80% finish chance. Batgerel “Storm” Danaa fights at a crazy pace that has scored him 3 first-round KOs in his 5-fight UFC career, good for a 39% KO chance in this fight. Kyung Ho Kang has knocked opponents down with his power as well, translating to a 33% KO chance with Danaa’s reckless style. The remaining finish chance shows up in the form of a Kang submission, which he has pulled off in half of his UFC wins.