UFC 271 odds are on the board and getting attention for a big Saturday night card in Houston. For those who can’t wait until Super Bowl Sunday for hard hits — and don’t want to see penalty flags when such hits are delivered — well, this should be your kind of night.
The main event at the Toyota Center is a rematch pitting middleweight champion Israel Adesanya against Robert Whittaker.
Nick Kalikas, MMA oddsmaker for Circa Sports, provided insights and intel on opening/current UFC 271 betting odds and action. Check back through Saturday evening for updates.
UFC 271 Odds
| Favorite | Odds | Underdog | Odds | Weight Class |
| Israel Adesanya | -280 | Robert Whittaker | +235 | Middleweight (185 pounds max) |
| Derrick Lewis | -190 | Tai Tuivasa | +165 | Heavyweight (265 pounds) |
| Jared Cannonier | -150 | Derek Brunson | +130 | Middleweight (185 pounds) |
| Kyler Phillips | -425 | Marcelo Rojo | +345 | Bantamweight (135 pounds) |
| Bobby Green | -140 | Nasrat Haqparast | +120 | Lightweight (155 pounds) |
| Andrei Arlovski | -150 | Jared Vanderaa | +130 | Heavyweight (265 pounds) |
| Casey O’Neill | -425 | Roxanne Modafferi | +345 | Women’s flyweight (125 pounds) |
| Alex Perez | CANCELED | Matt Schnell | CANCELED | Flyweight (125 pounds) |
| Maxim Grishin | -165 | William Knight | +145 | Light heavyweight (205 pounds) |
| Ronnie Lawrence | -290 | Mana Martinez | +245 | Bantamweight (135 pounds) |
| Renato Moicano | -150 | Alexander Hernandez | +130 | Lightweight (155 pounds) |
| Carlos Ulberg | -258 | Fabio Cherant | +218 | Light heavyweight (205 pounds) |
| AJ Dobson | -125 | Jacob Malkoun | +105 | Middleweight (185 pounds) |
| Sergey Morozov | -210 | Douglas Silva de Andrade | +180 | Bantamweight (135 pounds) |
| Jeremiah Wells | -235 | Mike Mathetha | +200 | Welterweight (170 pounds) |
Odds via Circa Sports and updated as of 10 p.m. ET on Feb. 12.
Adesanya vs Whittaker Odds and Betting Action
UPDATE MIDNIGHT ET SATURDAY: With the main event on deck, Adesanya is a -275 chalk and Whittaker a +235 ‘dog at The SuperBook. “We are a few dimes out to Whittaker, but there is parlay exposure to Adesanya, and one limit bet on him would basically even out our position,” SuperBook risk manager Rex Beyers said. “I’m slightly disappointed in the volume, to be frank.”
UPDATE 10 P.M. ET SATURDAY: As the five-bout main card gets underway, BetMGM Nevada has Adesanya -330/Whittaker +260, after opening at Adesanya -275/Whittaker +225. “Tickets are about 60% on Whittaker, money is about the opposite, 60% on Adesanya,” BetMGM Nevada’s Scott Shelton said. “It’s not a big decision. Good two-way action. All these [main-card] fights are pretty heavily bet, but not big decisions.”
UPDATE 1 P.M. ET SATURDAY: BetMGM opened Adesanya -275/Whittaker +200, and that’s where the prices sat this morning. However, the defending champion is now up to -300, with Whittaker a +240 underdog. Whittaker is actually taking 65% of tickets on tonight’s main event, but 57% of money is on Adesanya.
UPDATE 9:30 P.M. ET THURSDAY: Back in October 2019, which seems like forever ago thanks to the pandemic, Adesanya scored a third-round knockout of then-champion Whittaker in UFC 243. Since then, Adesanya (21-1) has gone 3-1 in four title bouts. Most recently, he posted a unanimous decision over Marvin Vettori at UFC 263 in June 2021.
Whittaker (24-5) rebounded from the Adesanya loss by winning his next three fights to earn another title shot. Whittaker last fought in April 2021, claiming a unanimous decision over Kelvin Gastelum while headlining a UFC Fight Night card.
Circa Sports opened this fight on Feb. 2 at Adesanya -265/Whittaker +225, then moved a nickel to -270/+230, and is now back at the opener.
“There hasn’t been any significant action yet, even though it’s an ultra-popular fight — a rematch, with Whittaker the former champ, and a high-stakes bout,” Kalikas said. “The line has been pretty steady. It just seems like the price is fair, not a lot of wiggle room. I expect on fight day, we’ll see some line movement, maybe some ‘dog action on Whittaker. I think people will respect him, and fans kind of want him to complete this comeback.
“We’ll probably need Adesanya, but not for a super-big decision. We’ll see more Adesanya action on parlays, more straight bets on Whittaker.”
Lewis vs Tuivasa Odds and Betting Action
UPDATE 10 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Tonight’s co-main has seen very little movement on the UFC 271 odds board at BetMGM Nevada. Derrick Lewis opened -195 and is down to -190, with Tai Tuivasa a +160 underdog. “Again, really good two-way as far as the money is concerned, a few thousand more dollars on Lewis. Tickets are 2/1 in favor of Tuivasa,” BetMGM Nevada’s Scott Shelton said.
UPDATE 1 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Derrick Lewis opened as a -200 chalk at BetMGM, with Tai Tuivasa correspondingly a +165 ‘dog. Currently, that moneyline is down slightly to Lewis -190/Tuivasa +155. Early bettors definitely like the underdog price for tonight’s co-main event, with ticket count 2/1 and money 4/1 on Tuivasa.
UPDATE 9:30 P.M. ET THURSDAY: Derrick Lewis landed on Circa’s UFC 271 odds board as a -185 chalk Feb. 2, with Tai Tuivasa a +160 underdog. Lewis got as low as -165, and this heavyweight fight is currently priced at Lewis -173/Tuivasa +153.
“Obviously, we’re getting bet a little bit more on Tuivasa,” Kalikas said of early action. “Now, there’s some back-and-forth, respected action on both sides. At this ‘dog price, I expect more people to back Tuivasa. I expect to need Lewis when all is said and done.”
Cannonier vs Brunson Odds and Betting Action
UPDATE 10 P.M. ET SATURDAY: This fight has moved significantly at BetMGM Nevada, opening at Jared Cannonier -195/Derek Brunson +160 and now sitting at Cannonier -150/Brunson +125. “Money and tickets slightly favor the ‘dog Brunson, roughly 1.5/1 on both counts,” BetMGM Nevada’s Scott Shelton said.
UPDATE 1 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Jared Cannonier is a -165 favorite this afternoon at BetMGM, where the buyback on Derek Brunson is +135. This fight opened at Cannonier -175/Brunson +155 and this morning was at -160/+130. Brunson is nabbing a modest majority 53% of tickets, while 67% of money is on Cannonier.
UPDATE 9:30 P.M. ET THURSDAY: In another middleweight clash, in the middle of the five-bout main card, Jared Cannonier opened a -185 favorite to Derek Brunson’s +160 underdog price at Circa.
“We’ve had some sharp play on this fight, for sure,” Kalikas said. “Early action on the ‘dog Brunson, then some buyback on Cannonier, and that was kind of respected action. But then we started getting multiple sharps betting the ‘dog side. We’re all the way down to -147 on Cannonier, +127 on Brunson. We got a flood of sharp money on Brunson, and we’re respecting that.
“I think the buyback will come on Cannonier, but not enough to overtake the Brunson side. We’re gonna need Cannonier on fight night.”
A little action apparently landed on the favorite late this evening, as the price moved to Cannonier -155/Brunson +135.
Other UFC 271 Odds and Betting Action
UPDATE 1 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Odds for the second fight on the five-bout main card have noticeably tightened at BetMGM. Renato Moicano opened as a -175 chalk to Alexander Hernandez’s +140 ‘dog price. Earlier today, the fight was at Moicano -160/Hernandez +130, and it’s now down to -150/+125. Ticket count is 3/1 and money 4/1 on the underdog Hernandez.
Moicano vs. Hernandez was supposed to be in the early prelims, but got bumped all the way up to the main card due to missed weights and a cancellation in other bouts on the card.
In the opening bout on the main card, Bobby Green is -150 and Nasrat Haqparast +125 in BetMGM’s UFC 271 odds market. That’s down slightly from the opener of Green -160/Haqparast +140. Haqparast is landing 54% of bets and 68% of money.
UPDATE 9:30 P.M. ET THURSDAY: A battle between Maxim Grishin vs William Knight opens the four-bout preliminary card. And even though it’s down the ladder a bit, this light heavyweight contest has the attention of Kalikas and his customers. Grishin opened a -195 chalk and Knight a +170 ‘dog in Circa’s UFC 271 odds market.
“We have a significant amount of action on this one. It’s been a popular fight at the betting window,” Kalikas said. “There’s a mix of sharp and public action coming in on Knight, and we’ve dropped to Grishin -165/Knight +145. This is technique vs. power, with Griffin the technique fighter. People are respecting the power of Knight. Knight has been very popular as an underdog, one of the most popular underdogs on this card.
“I’m respecting both sides. I personally know sharps who are waiting to buy back on Grishin when the price is right. But we’ll probably need the favorite small.”
