For the second straight weekend, MMA fans get a marquee event and a chance to see what happens when someone’s nose meets someone else’s knee. This week, UFC 268 odds take center stage on one of the world’s biggest stages, Madison Square Garden.
Saturday’s main event pits welterweight champion Kamaru Usman against Colby Covington, and several more big bouts dot the 14-fight card.
Nick Kalikas, MMA oddsmaker at Circa Sports, provided insights and intel on opening/current UFC 268 betting odds and action. Check back through Saturday for updates.
UFC 268 Odds
| Favorite | Odds | Underdog | Odds | Weight Class |
| Usman | -295 | Covington | +250 | Welterweight (170 pounds max) |
| Weili | -115 | Namajunas | -105 | Women’s Strawweight (115 pounds) |
| Vera | -160 | Edgar | +140 | Bantamweight (135 pounds) |
| Burgos | -180 | Quarantillo | +155 | Featherweight (145 pounds) |
| Gaethje | -215 | Chandler | +185 | Lightweight (155 pounds) |
| Pereira | -240 | Michailidis | +205 | Middleweight (185 pounds) |
| Green | -185 | Iaquinta | +160 | Lightweight (155 pounds) |
| Hawes | -305 | Curtis | +255 | Middleweight (185 pounds) |
| Imavov | -125 | Shahbazyan | +105 | Middleweight (185 pounds) |
| Garry | -400 | Williams | +325 | Welterweight (170 pounds) |
| Villante | -125 | Barnett | +105 | Heavyweight (265 pounds) |
| Jacoby | -400 | Allan | +325 | Light Heavyweight (205 pounds) |
| Baghdasaryan | -370 | Souza | +305 | Featherweight (145 pounds) |
| Osbourne | -185 | Vergara | +160 | Flyweight (125 pounds) |
Odds via Circa Sports (Updated as of 10:15 p.m ET Nov. 6)
Usman vs Covington Betting Action
UPDATE 10:15 P.M. ET SATURDAY: As the five-bout main card gets underway, BetMGM Nevada has Usman a -300 favorite, up from his -285 opener and down from his -320 peak. Covington is a +240 underdog.
“Tickets 2/1 in favor of the dog, money almost 4/1 on the ‘dog. We’re a significant loser to Covington,” BetMGM Nevada’s Scott Shelton said.
However, Usman is getting a lot of parlay play. So Shelton said that unless one of the main-card favorites falls prior to the main event, BetMGM’s Nevada shops might be rooting for Covington.
UPDATE 4 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Usman opened as a -280 favorite at PointsBet USA, to Covington’s -220, and the moneyline is now Usman -300/Coving +230. It’s practically all favorite action, with Usman collecting 92% of tickets and 96% of cash.
UPDATE 12:30 P.M. ET THURSDAY: On Oct. 25, Circa Sports opened this title fight at Usman -265/Covington +225, and the moneyline stretched as far as -310/+260.
“Of course, we got some early action on Usman, with a little bit lower price than the market price. And it was respected action,” Kalikas said. “But the last few days, some sharp play has shown on Covington, so we’re at -290/+245. The public is parlaying Usman like he already won the fight. And there are cross-sport bets, parlaying him with the NFL, college football and Canelo Alvarez [who defends his super middleweight boxing title against Caleb Plant on Saturday].
“There’s a lot going on this weekend, and Usman is a very popular parlay piece. We’ll need Covington, no question.”
Namajunas vs Weili Betting Action
UPDATE 10: 15 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Rose Namajunas opened a slim -115 chalk at BetMGM Nevada, and Zhang Weili is now a -120 favorite, with Namajunas even money. “Tickets are 2/1 on Namajunas, money is really close, a little more on Namajunas,” BetMGM Nevada’s Scott Shelton said.
UPDATE 4 P.M. ET SATURDAY: PointsBet USA opened this women’s strawweight title fight at Rose Namajunas -115/Zhang Weili -105, and Weili is now modest -120 chalk to Namajunas’ -105 price. Namajunas is netting 54% percent of bets and Weili 63% of dollars.
UPDATE 12:30 P.M. ET THURSDAY: Circa opened this opposite most books, making women’s strawweight title challenger Zhang Weili the slight favorite, rather than champion Rose Namajunas. And recall, Namajunas earned a knockout win less than 90 seconds into the first meeting between these two, in April at UFC 261.
Still, Kalikas went with Zhang -115/Namajunas -105 in the co-main event. The ensuing action proved his instincts correct, as it’s now Zhang -120/Namajunas +100.
“Now the market has come our way. It’s decent two-way action, nothing out of the ordinary,” Kalikas said. “I doubt we’ll continue to get two-way action. The public will be on Namajunas. But there will be enough balance from sharps on Zhang’s side that it should stay fairly close.”
Gaethje vs Chandler Betting Action
UPDATE 4 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Justin Gaethje is out to a -210 favorite at PointsBet USA, after opening -180. Correspondingly, Chandler went from +150 to +165. Ticket count is 3/1 and money beyond 5/1 on Gaethje.
UPDATE 12:30 P.M. ET THURSDAY: Justin Gaethje opened as a -180 chalk to Michael Chandler’s +155 underdog price at Circa. The moneyline peaked at Gaethje -215/Chandler +185, and it’s now -200/+175.
“Early action did come in on Gaethje, pushing the moneyline up,” Kalikas said. “As soon as we reached -215/+185, we did get some buyback on Chandler. Now we’ve kind of settled in.”
Kalikas finds this fight intriguing and certainly no guarantee for the favorite, while noting reasonable doubts about the ‘dog.
“I think Chandler is one of those guys who will continue to be underrated. And Gaethje has so much knockout power, he’s gonna be the public side,” Kalikas said. “There’s a lack of trust in Chandler in this bout. But make no mistake, Chandler is a very capable fighter and a dangerous one, too. Still, I’ll be surprised if we don’t need Chandler.”
Other UFC 268 Betting Action
UPDATE 10:15 P.M. ET SATURDAY: In a bout that got promoted two spots on the main card, Marlon Vera is -155 to Frankie Edgar’s +130 at BetMGM Nevada. Vera opened -165, peaked at -170 and bottomed out at -150. “Tickets 2/1 on Edgar, and money also 2/1 on Edgar,” BetMGM Nevada’s Scott Shelton said.
UPDATE 4 P.M. ET SATURDAY: In a bantamweight bout that was to open UFC 268’s main card but moved will now precede the co-main, Marlon Vera is +165 chalk vs. Frankie Edgar (+130) at PointsBet USA. That’s a modest shortening from the +170/+145 opening price. However, it’s all Vera action, at 86% of bets and 93% of dollars.
UPDATE 12:30 P.M. ET THURSDAY: Kalikas pointed to the top of the preliminary card for another intriguing bout on the UFC 268 odds board. Alex Pereira is making his UFC debut against Andreas Michailidis. Circa Sports opened at Pereira -265/Michailidis +225, and it’s now -220/+190.
Kalikas noted Pereira has an impressive kickboxing resume. That includes two wins, by knockout and decision, over current UFC middleweight champ Israel Adesanya.
“He’s an elite-level striker,” Kalikas said of Pereira. “There’s a lot of hype and high expectations on Pereira. But bettors aren’t dumb, and they aren’t necessarily going to buy into the hype. Michailidis is a pretty solid fighter, and there’s a lot of ‘dog action already, based on the ground advantage he should have over Pereira.
“We will need the favorite to come through in this spot. But it’s a winnable fight and the perfect test for Pereira.”
