As we gear up for another exciting weekend of NFL action, it’s time to explore some high-value plays on PrizePicks that are backed by solid data and strong sportsbook odds.
We’ve identified three plays that offer a great chance for success, utilizing a combination of market odds, projections, and situational analysis.
Let’s take a closer look at each play and understand why they make sense for this Sunday.
Best NFL Prop Sites in All States
Top NFL PrizePicks (Week 2)
Griffin Alvey unveils his top NFL PrizePicks for Week 2 of the NFL season.
Malik Nabers Under 5.5 Receptions
Our first play focuses on Malik Nabers, with a recommendation to take under 5.5 receptions. This line comes with a strong consensus across multiple sportsbooks, offering odds of -142 for the under. The odds are further supported by reliable projections showing Nabers to have as few as 3 to 4 receptions.
When betting, two factors are crucial: odds and projections, which both align well for this play. Adding to our confidence is the current state of the New York Giants’ offensive line, which has struggled significantly this season. Their inability to protect the quarterback could limit the passing game altogether, reducing the chances for Nabers to hit the over on his reception line. With these elements in play, this pick presents strong value.
Where to play: Malik Nabers Under 5.5 Receptions | PrizePicks
Christian Kirk Under 4.5 Receptions
Next up, we have Christian Kirk, another player for whom we’re taking the under, this time under 4.5 receptions. The consensus odds are sitting at -140, indicating a solid market expectation for Kirk to finish below this mark. Trusted projection models align with this, placing him around 3.8 receptions.
Adding to the appeal of this pick is the strength of the Cleveland Browns’ pass defense. The Browns rank among the top in the league when it comes to limiting completion percentage to opposing receivers, making it tough for Kirk to surpass the 4.5 reception mark. Given the matchup and supporting data, this play offers great value for anyone looking to capitalize on a potentially lower-volume game for Kirk.
Where to play: Christian Kirk Under 4.5 Receptions | PrizePicks
Matthew Stafford Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
For our final pick, we turn to Matthew Stafford and take the over 1.5 passing touchdowns. This line is backed by consensus odds of -138 across all major sportsbooks, suggesting a high probability of Stafford throwing at least two touchdowns. Projections also support this play, with most models forecasting around two touchdowns for the veteran quarterback.
What makes this pick particularly appealing is the game environment. The Rams will be playing in a dome, eliminating any weather concerns that could impact the passing game. Additionally, the Rams are known for their pass-heavy approach, especially in the red zone, ranking as the 10th most pass-oriented offense in the league, according to Covers.com. With these factors in mind, Stafford’s over 1.5 passing touchdowns looks like a well-supported and favorable play.
Where to play: Matthew Stafford Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns | PrizePicks
Author: Griffin Alvey
