Question: Can you name the 10 most popular Super Bowl prop bets?
Answer: Well, if you’re Johnny Avello, the answer is most certainly yes.
There are hundreds of Super Bowl props offered these days, but year after year, a handful of those wagers tend to rise to the top of the popularity chart. Avello has seen the evidence time and again in his 37 years behind the counter, currently as the director of sportsbook operations for DraftKings.
When it comes to the most popular Super Bowl prop bets, few know better than Avello. So naturally, Props.com asked him to provide his top-10 list heading into Super Bowl 56, with the Los Angeles Rams facing the Cincinnati Bengals in Inglewood, California.
Odds via DraftKings and updated as of 11 p.m. ET on Feb. 6.
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Most Popular Super Bowl Bets
1) First Score Of The Game Will Be: Touchdown/Field Goal/Safety
The Seattle Seahawks’ 43-8 wipeout of the Denver Broncos to wrap up the 2013-14 season was the impetus for this prop’s growing popularity.
“Ever since Super Bowl 48, when the ball was hiked over [Broncos quarterback] Peyton Manning’s head, which resulted in a safety for the first score, the safety has been a popular play on this prop,” Avello said. “The payout returned 100/1, and the books took a bath on that one.”
In fact, that bath was such that Avello said books have reworked this prop bet. For example, in Super Bowl 48, some shops offered this prop: Will a safety be the first score of the game? Hence the very long odds. Now, it’s often a three-way prop, making the odds on a safety significantly shorter. At DraftKings, the prop reads: “First Score Method 3-Way,” followed by choices of touchdown (-160), field goal (+115) or safety (+2,500).
“You won’t see the price that we once put up,” Avello said.
But Super Bowl 56 bettors will surely still fire away on safety in the three-way market, hoping to catch smaller lightning in a bottle once more.
2) Will There Be A Safety At Any Point In The Game?
This prop plays off No. 1 on Avello’s list, though it draws a lot more action — and almost all of that action is on Yes. Albeit at a much lower price. DK has Yes +800/No -1,600.
“A safety has happened nine times in Super Bowl games, twice in back-to-back games, and once in three straight,” Avello noted.
However, since that aforementioned Broncos-Seahawks Super Bowl 48 clash, there hasn’t been a safety in the Big Game. In fact, the safety in that game capped the only three-year run of Super Bowl safeties. In Super Bowl 46, Patriots QB Tom Brady was called for intentional grounding in the end zone during a 21-17 loss to the Giants. And in Super Bowl 47, the Ravens took an intentional safety out of punt formation in the waning seconds of a 34-31 win over the 49ers.
So it’s been seven years since Yes bettors last did the safety dance.
“I don’t usually worry about it, but when it hits and you initially pay out a lot of money on it, it stinks,” Avello said.
3) Player To Score First Touchdown/Anytime Touchdown Scorer
These are obviously separate props, but Avello grouped them together in terms of popularity. The Player To Score The First TD prop is popular for a couple of reasons. First, every option is plus money, this year starting with Rams wideout Cooper Kupp as the +500 chalk. Second, well, it generally pays out early in the game, which is nice.
Anytime TD scorer also gets a lot of attention in the Super Bowl betting market, even though the odds are significantly shorter. For example, Kupp is a -190 favorite to score at any point in Super Bowl 56. Avello and the DK trading team have plenty of experience with both offerings.
“We have those props up every single week, every single game. And there are some weeks where we’ve gotten burned,” Avello said. “It usually works out well for the book. Most of the things we do work out well. But these two props are very, very popular.”
4) Coin Toss Outcome
This one gets you to the pay window — or hands you your first setback — before the football is even on the tee. DraftKings, like some of their competitors, offers reduced juice on this pick ’em prop, with Heads and Tails both -105 instead of the traditional -110.
“We’ve taken substantial size bets on this prop through the years. Bettors have told me, ‘I’ll know my result early, and I’m getting good value on the vigorish,'” Avello said. “You can’t handicap it, so you just put it up. I’ve had guys bet 20, 30 grand on it, because [of the reduced] juice.”
5) Time Of First Score
Different books vary the wording on this prop. Typically, it’s along the lines of: Will there be a score in the first 6:30 of the game? DK has different wording and has bounced around a bit, based on action. On Sunday, the prop asked if the first score will occur on or after 7 minutes elapses, with Yes +105/No -135. On Monday, the wording changed to ask if the first score will occur on or after 6 minutes elapses. That shifted Yes to a -140 chalk and No to a +105 underdog.
“Always a big write,” Avello said.
6) Will There Be A Missed Extra Point?
This prop has gained popularity since the NFL moved extra points back 13 yards beginning in the 2015-16 season. It’s certainly led to a drop in accuracy the past several years. At one point late in the 2021-22 regular season, the point-after-touchdown success rate was at a low of 92.5 percent.
“Yes comes in a lot now, so much more than it did before, when the extra point was a chip shot,” Avello said. “It’s more popular now than ever.”
Los Angeles kicker Matt Gay rated near the top of the NFL in the regular season with a 98.3 percent success rate (fifth). Cincinnati’s Evan McPherson was 12th at 96.2.
For Super Bowl 56, DraftKings’ prop also includes field goals — Will there be a missed extra point/field goal? So that adds to the dynamic, with Yes +110/No -140.
7) Will There Be A Successful 2-Point Conversion?
For the public/casual/once-a-year bettors, this offering is a must-wager among the most popular Super Bowl prop bets. Yes is +250 and No -360 at DraftKings for Super Bowl 56.
“It’s becoming a little trickier for the bookmaker, with the [2-point conversion] success rate continuing to go higher and the analytics saying go for [two] early,” Avello said.
8) Will Either Team Score Three Consecutive Times?
This prop is standard fare at virtually every sportsbook now, and it’s an interesting one, because it makes bettors think. What’s often focused on is the team receiving the second-half kickoff. If that team can put up a late first-half score, then open the second half with a score, two-thirds of the Yes equation is solved.
But obviously, there are myriad ways that Yes can hit, and these playoffs have demonstrated that fact. In the Bengals-Chiefs AFC Championship Game, Cincinnati got a late first-half TD, but Kansas City got the second-half kickoff. More than 12 minutes elapsed in the third quarter before there was a score, on a Cincinnati field goal. And the Bengals followed with a TD in the waning seconds of the third quarter.
In the Divisional Round clash between the Rams and Buccaneers, both teams put together three straight unanswered scoring drives. So it should be no surprise that the juice on hits prop is always heavily shaded to Yes. And that’s the case at DrafKings, which has Yes -240/No +195 for Super Bowl 56.
“It happens much more often than you may think,” Avello said of one team stringing together three straight scores.
Not so much lately, though. In fact, since the Patriots’ miracle comeback against the Falcons in Super Bowl 51, the No has hit on this prop in three of the last four games. (Exception: Both the 49ers and Chiefs had three unanswered scores two years ago in Super Bowl 54.)
A reminder on this prop: Three consecutive scores does not include extra points/2-point conversions. It’s any combination of touchdowns, field goals and/or safeties.
9) Will There Be Overtime?
There’s an attractive plus number in front of Yes every year on this prop. So rest assured, the public piles on this market, making it one of the most popular Super Bowl prop bets. For Super Bowl 56, DraftKings has Yes +950/No -2,000.
“It’s all about the point spread,” Avello said. “If the spread is pick ’em, or 1, 2 or 3, then the power ratings say these teams are really close. So there’s a better chance of going to overtime.”
Rams vs. Bengals has been at some iteration of Los Angeles -4 or -4.5 all week at DK. (As of Sunday night, the Rams were at -4, -110. But this postseason has had no shortage of either overtime games or contests that avoided OT on final-seconds scores.
In a game tied at 16, Cincinnati won its Divisional Round tilt at Tennessee 19-16 on a walk-off field goal. Same for San Francisco in its 13-10 win at Green Bay, and Los Angeles in its 30-27 win at Tampa Bay the same weekend. And the fourth divisional game, Bills at Chiefs, went to overtime, with Kansas City winning 42-36.
Cincy-K.C. went to overtime in the AFC Championship Game, with the Bengals winning 27-24. And the NFC Championship Game was tied at 17 late, with the Rams winning 20-17 on a field goal inside of two minutes left.
“Look at all these games during the playoffs,” Avello said, noting OT could certainly happen on Super Bowl Sunday.
That said, if fire away on Yes with this Super Bowl prop, temper your expectations, keeping in mind why No is -2,000: In 55 years, only one Super Bowl was decided in overtime — the aforementioned Patriots’ miracle comeback against Atlanta in Super Bowl 51.
10) Player To Be Named MVP
This prop obviously has multiple options, most of which pay out quite well. Per usual, the two quarterbacks are the favorites, with the Rams’ Matthew Stafford even money and the Bengals’ Joe Burrow +225 at DraftKings.
“This prop writes a lot of tickets, and although the QB wins it 60 to 65 percent of the time, there’s value out there if he doesn’t,” Avello said, adding that action on the QBs is down for this matchup. “We’re not seeing that so far this year. They’re on Cooper Kupp and [Rams defensive tackle] Aaron Donald. They’re taking some shots with other guys this year.”
Kupp is the +600 third choice, and Donald is the +1,600 fourth choice.
But taking the QB, while the price is much shorter, might not be a bad idea when you compare those odds with the moneyline on each team. Los Angeles is -200 and Cincinnati +175 at DK.
“What you can do instead of laying the moneyline on the Rams or taking the moneyline on the Bengals is bet the QB to win MVP,” Avello said. “You get a better price on the QB [to win MVP] than taking a team on the moneyline.”
