Happy Saturday! Welcome to our Thunder vs Hawks prediction today and NBA free expert picks for Saturday, October 25! Our basketball analyst Justin Carlucci brings you his favorite Thunder vs Hawks props and betting angles to consider. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander props will be an interesting conversation to have after all of the basketball he’s played this week!
Editor’s Note: Check out our NBA hub for all of our free predictions!
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Thunder vs Hawks Prediction Today – Saturday, October 25
Saturday night brings us a heavyweight clash that’s way more interesting than the line suggests—the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder (2-0) visit the Atlanta Hawks (1-1).
Saturday night brings us a heavyweight clash that’s way more interesting than the line suggests—the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder (2-0) visit the Atlanta Hawks (1-1) at State Farm Arena. Tip-off is 7:30 PM ET, and the line sits at Thunder -6.5 with a total of 236.5.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has already attempted 40 free throws through two games—the most in NBA history through the first two contests of a season.
The reigning MVP is averaging 45 points per game and just dropped a career-high 55 points in a double-overtime thriller against Indiana on Thursday night. The man is playing possessed.
OKC has played 116 minutes of basketball in just four days. Both of their wins came in double overtime, and SGA himself has logged 46.2 minutes per game. That’s the equivalent of nearly 2.5 full games in less than a week.
Meanwhile, the Hawks are playing on zero days’ rest after a gutsy comeback win in Orlando last night, where Trae Young scored six points in the final 46 seconds to steal a 111-107 victory.
This is a fatigue bowl, and I’m here for it.
Thunder vs Hawks Odds
Looking for Thunder vs Hawks odds and lines?
- Spread: Thunder -6.5
- Moneyline: Hawks +215 (available at time of publishing)
- Game Total: 238.5 (subject to change)
How To Watch Thunder vs Hawks Saturday
- When: Saturday, October 25, 2025
- Time: 7:40 PM EST
- Where: State Farm Arena – Atlanta, GA
- Watch: NBA TV and Regional Coverage
Thunder Prediction Today
The Thunder are running on fumes and sheer willpower, and at some point, physics catches up.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is putting up video game numbers—45 PPG, 8 rebounds, 5 assists through two games.
His 55-point explosion against Indiana included 23-of-26 from the free-throw line (both career highs) and 34 points scored in the second half and overtimes. He’s got five career 50-point games now, tying Russell Westbrook for the most in Thunder history. The guy is absolutely unconscious.
But here’s the reality check: SGA’s on pace to challenge Wilt Chamberlain’s all-time minutes and scoring records.
That’s not sustainable—especially when you’re missing six rotation players, including All-Star Jalen Williams (wrist surgery) and elite defender Alex Caruso (concussion protocol). Isaiah Joe, Kenrich Williams, and Nikola Topic are all out, and Thomas Sorber’s done for the season with a torn ACL.
Chet Holmgren has been excellent when healthy—28 points and 7 rebounds in 39 minutes against Houston—but he’s now questionable with low back soreness. After logging heavy minutes in two straight double-OT games, his back is screaming for rest. If Holmgren sits or is limited, OKC’s frontcourt depth gets tested to the breaking point.
The supporting cast has stepped up beautifully. Ajay Mitchell has been a revelation off the bench with 16 points against Houston and 26 against Indiana. Aaron Wiggins went for 23 points on 7-14 shooting (5-9 from three) in the Pacers game, showing he can be a legitimate scoring threat when needed.
Hawks Prediction Today
Atlanta just showed serious grit in that Orlando comeback. Down 12 early in the fourth quarter (93-81), they could’ve folded. Instead, Trae Young took over.
Young finished with 25 points, 6 assists, and 2 steals, but it was his crunch-time execution that wins games. He scored six points in the final 46 seconds, including the final five points of a 15-0 run that erased Orlando’s entire lead. Then he calmly hit four free throws in the final 21 seconds after Jalen Suggs tied it 107-107. That’s ice-cold closer mentality.
The supporting cast showed real depth. Onyeka Okongwu stepped up with 17 points in Kristaps Porzingis’ absence, anchoring the defense and holding his own against Orlando’s size.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker added 19 points and 4 assists (though he went just 1-10 from three). Jalen Johnson contributed 12 points and 8 rebounds, and Mouhamed Gueye provided 13 off the bench.
Atlanta shot just 27.6% from three-point range (8-29) against Orlando, making only 2 of their first 20 attempts. You’re not beating the defending champs shooting like that. They need positive regression from deep, and they need it tonight.
The back-to-back fatigue is real—this is their second game in as many nights. But I actually think Atlanta’s standard back-to-back is less taxing than OKC’s two double-overtime marathons.
The Thunder have played 26 more minutes than a normal team would have through their first two games. That’s an entire extra half of basketball.
Thunder vs Hawks Injury Report
Thunder Injury Situation: OUT: Jalen Williams (wrist surgery from Finals injury), Alex Caruso (concussion), Isaiah Joe (knee), Kenrich Williams (knee surgery), Nikola Topic (testicular surgery), Thomas Sorber (torn ACL). QUESTIONABLE: Chet Holmgren (low back soreness), Cason Wallace (left knee sprain).
Hawks’ Injury Situation: QUESTIONABLE: Kristaps Porzingis (flu-like symptoms—upgraded from OUT), Zaccharie Risacher (ankle sprain). OUT: Eli John Ndiaye, Nikola Djurisic.
Thunder vs Hawks Prediction: Props and Picks Today
There are plenty of Thunder vs Hawks props to choose from on Underdog for Saturday. Let’s dive into the Thunder vs Hawks predictions!
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Props Today
- Lower Than 46.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
Let’s talk some SGA props. He’s played 90+ minutes in four days, and at some point, the legs give out. Atlanta’s going to scheme to keep him off the free-throw line (good luck), and if Porzingis plays, there’s rim protection SGA hasn’t faced yet this season.
Cason Wallace Props Today
- Higher Than 1.5 3-Pointers
This is about opportunity, and without Jalen Williams, Wallace should see major minutes. Atlanta has played at a torrid pace over the last couple of seasons, and Wallace should see some clean transition looks.
Thunder vs Hawks Last Game
Their most recent meetings both came in the Thunder’s favor by double digits:
- Feb. 28, 2025: Thunder 135-119
- Oct. 27, 2024: Thunder 128-104
But here’s what the market forgets—those games featured a healthy Thunder roster. Jalen Williams, Alex Caruso, and Isaiah Joe all played. This current OKC squad is a shell of those dominant performances, and Atlanta’s got more offensive weapons now with Porzingis potentially in the mix.
Thunder vs Hawks Head-to-Head History
Here’s a fun fact: the all-time series is Thunder 73-72—literally a one-game difference. The Thunder have won the last two straight meetings, but over the last 10 games, they’re just 5-5 against Atlanta.
