Super Bowl prop bets are standard fare at every sportsbook now, with the menu growing larger by the year. But there’s something special about the Thursday night following NFL conference championship weekend. Far and wide in sports betting circles, everyone knows what that night means: The SuperBook in Las Vegas is rolling out its massive array of Super Bowl props.
If Jim Nantz were here, he might deem it: “A tradition unlike any other.” And he’d be right.
There was no shortage of traditionalists, primarily in the form of sharp bettors, on hand for The SuperBook’s big-board reveal of 2022 Super Bowl proposition bets.
Hundreds Of Bets, Thousands Of Options
Upwards of 500 offerings for Super Bowl 56 hit the board at 7 p.m. PT Thursday. The menu included a dizzying array of two-way bets — Yes/No and Over/Under props — and plenty of index bets offering many more betting options for the Feb. 13 showdown between the Cincinnati Bengals and Los Angeles Rams. Such as the ever-popular Player To Score First Touchdown prop, with 20 Bengals and Rams players available to bet on.
The professional money flowed fairly steadily for an hour or so, with plenty of $2,000 max bets and surely countless $500 and $1,000 plays.
“It was better than last year, for sure,” SuperBook risk manager Rex Beyers said after the merry-go-round of bettors finally all jumped off.
And even with hundreds of Super Bowl prop bets available, Beyers said one got attacked repeatedly.
“They wouldn’t leave alone kickoff returns Under 5.5. They won’t stop betting it. They’re betting that every kickoff will be a touchback,” Beyers said. “If these kickers play to their stats, we’ll lose all those bets. If they kick like in last year’s Super Bowl, when everything was returned, we’ll win.”
When the window first opened for Super Bowl 56 prop bets, Over 5.5 kickoff returns was a -140 favorite and Under 5.5 a +120 underdog. By night’s end, the Under shot all the way to -190 chalk, with the Over a +170 ‘dog.
“We’re married to 5.5, and I don’t think we’re gonna get a divorce,” Beyers said. “At some point, someone will see it’s just too much juice and bet it the other way.”
Kicking It Around
Two correlated kickoff props got hit hard, as well.
“They bet the hell out of Yes on both kickers’ first kickoffs resulting in a touchback,” Beyers said.
For Rams kicker Matt Gay, that prop opened Yes -130/No +110 and moved to -150/+130. For Bengals kicker Evan McPherson, Yes/No opened a -110 pick ’em and surged to Yes -150/No +130.
Another prop that got punished by the pros: Rams vs. Bengals total rushing yards. Los Angeles opened a -25.5-yard favorite, then got bet down to -23.5 and -19.5 before finally stopping at -15.5.
“They all bet the Bengals plus-rushing yards. And that’s correlated with all the other Bengals rushing yards props, so we’ll have to decide whether to adjust all of those,” Beyers said.
The pros also played Unders on props involving Rams wideout Cooper Kupp.
“There was some anti-Kupp money, but we didn’t move much. There’ll be enough pro-Kupp money coming that we didn’t need to move too aggressively,” Beyers said.
Professional Opinions
Rufus Peabody, a regular for this annual prop-betting bonanza, noted one of the props that got his attention.
“Joe Mixon to have a touchdown before Cam Akers, at -110. My numbers said it was good,” Peabody said of the Super Bowl prop pitting the Cincy running back against the L.A. running back. A bet that opened pick ’em moved to Mixon -130/Akers +110.
Peabody ultimately ended up with a couple dozen plays Thursday night.
“Definitely worth the trip. There are more unique props here, and they have their own opinion here,” he said. “It’s a unique line set, and it gives me another set of lines to compare my numbers to. There are opportunities [here] to bet some props at a better price than elsewhere. There always is.”
“And there are some props here that aren’t anywhere else. So it helps me diversify.”
Some bettors dropped by just to soak it in a bit and digest some numbers, thinking on what they’ll bet later. Ted Sevransky fell into that category.
“I always like Yes on the three straight scores prop, even in a game where the spread is relatively short,” Sevransky said. “Look at Bengals-Chiefs. Cincy scored three straight times. And Rams-Bucs, both teams had three scores in a row at one point. If you’re expecting a competitive game, you’re expecting momentum swings.”
Since Beyers started with the kicking game, let’s finish there, with a prop on Rams punter John Hekker.
“Longest punt by Hekker opened Over/Under 55.5; it’s down to 53.5,” Beyers said, noting sharp pops on the Under. “That’s a tough number to dodge, because there will be Over money if you go much lower. But we are three limit bets out to it already.”
