Super Bowl odds provided an interesting ride for bettors all season long, and the playoffs have been no exception. But with NFL conference championship weekend on deck, somehow, we’re right back where we started months ago.
The Kansas City Chiefs, who opened the season as Super Bowl favorites, are the favorites once again, thanks to the Green Bay Packers bowing out.
With the NFL down to its Final Four, PointsBet USA sports analyst Mike Korn provides insight into 2021-22 Super Bowl odds, futures liability, and current action.
2022 Super Bowl Odds
| Team | Super Bowl Odds |
| Kansas City Chiefs | +120 |
| Los Angeles Rams | +210 |
| San Francisco 49ers | +475 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | +800 |
Odds via PointsBet USA and updated as of 10 p.m. ET on Jan. 26.
Back In The Saddle
Two years ago, the Chiefs beat the San Francisco 49ers 31-20 in Super Bowl 54. Last season, Kansas City earned a return trip to the Big Game, but had no answer for Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, losing 31-9.
Still, with all the Chiefs’ firepower on the field and public support off of it, PointsBet USA opened K.C. as the 5/1 favorite to win Super Bowl 56. That all changed by Oct. 24. For on that day, the Chiefs got hammered by the Titans 27-3 as a 3.5-point road favorite.
Kansas City had already been regressing in the Super Bowl odds market, but with that loss the two-time defending AFC champs fell to 3-4 SU. In response, PointsBet slid the Chiefs out to +1,800 — their longest odds of the season, as it would turn out.
Fast-forward three months, and K.C. is on an 11-1 SU spree (8-4 ATS). That run, combined with San Francisco’s upset of Green Bay in the divisional round, has Kansas City back on top in the Super Bowl odds market.
Prior to last weekend, the Packers were the +350 chalk to hoist the Lombardi Trophy, with the Chiefs close behind at +375. Now, K.C. is the +120 favorite, with the Los Angeles Rams the +210 second choice.
But the folks at PointsBet aren’t rooting for a Chiefs victory parade.
“In terms of Super Bowl liability, the Chiefs are the only losing result for us,” Korn said.
Long Shot-Turned-Shorter Shot
If you were among those who took a flier on the Cincinnati Bengals early in the season, congratulations on your excellent hedge position. PointsBet USA certainly doesn’t mind, either. Because Bengals backers were few and far between throughout the campaign.
“The Bengals are the best Super Bowl outcome for us as of now,” Korn said.
Cincinnati was a very long shot from the outset at PointsBet USA, opening at +15,000 (150/1). An unimpressive 20-17 Week 2 loss at the Chicago Bears led PointsBet to stretch the Bengals to +20,000. But then Cincy won four of its next five, with two particularly noteworthy efforts at the time:
- A 25-22 overtime loss as a 2-point home ‘dog against Green Bay in Week 5
- A 41-17 road shellacking of Baltimore as a 6.5-point pup in Week 7, capping the 4-1 surge
The Bengals were hit-and-miss for several weeks after that, but hit their stride with a late-season three-game winning streak. The final game in that run: A come-from-behind, 34-31 Week 17 home upset over Kansas City, whom Cincy will visit in the AFC Championship Game.
The Bengals then dispatched Las Vegas on Super Wild Card Weekend for their first playoff triumph in 31 years, followed by a 19-16 knockout of AFC No. 1 seed Tennessee last week. So although the Bengals remain the long shot of the remaining four teams, they’re only at +800.
San Francisco A Super Bowl Odds Treat
Similar to early-season takers on Cincy, congrats to those prudent enough to make a midseason play on the then-flailing 49ers. Unlike the Bengals, San Francisco was near the top of PointsBet’s Super Bowl odds board at the start, opening +1,300.
By Week 9, however, the Niners were 3-5 SU. In the ultra-competitive NFC West, pretty much no one thought Kyle Shanahan’s squad would reach the playoffs, let alone be a game away from a second Super Bowl in three seasons. PointsBet’s trading room certainly didn’t think so, moving the 49ers out to +10,000 (100/1).
Since that 31-17 home loss to Arizona in Week 9, San Francisco is 9-2 SU and ATS, including two wins over the Los Angeles Rams — this weekend’s NFC Championship Game foe. In the divisional playoff, the 49ers stunningly didn’t score an offensive touchdown, yet beat No. 1 seed Green Bay 13-10 as a 6-point road pup.
The 49ers are now sitting at +475, the third choice among the last four teams. PointsBet — and surely several of its competitors — couldn’t be happier that Jimmy Garoppolo and Co. are still alive.
“The 49ers beating the Pack in Lambeau last week was huge for the book,” Korn said. “We had huge liability on Green Bay to win the NFC and the Super Bowl.”
Winners and Loser
As Korn noted, the Chiefs hoisting another Lombardi Trophy is PointsBet USA’s only losing outcome in the Super Bowl futures odds market. But the degree of profits from the other three teams varies, so the book certainly has a rooting interest.
While the Bengals are at the top of the list, the second-best outcome would be San Francisco collecting Super Bowl title No. 6.
The Rams also would be a winner for the book, but represent the smallest positive outcome. Much like the Niners, Los Angeles was near the top of the 2021-22 Super Bowl odds board at the outset, opening at +1,500. But that was also L.A.’s longest price of the season (and obviously, the Rams’ current +210 odds are their shortest).
“The Chiefs and Rams were constantly in the top 3-5 most-bet teams to win the Super Bowl throughout the year, while the Bengals and the 49ers were consistently outside the top 10,” Korn said.