Sunday NCAA Tournament Odds: Sharp Money On Texas Vs Purdue

UPDATE 10:45 A.M. ET SUNDAY: Texas and Purdue had little trouble winning and covering in their first-round games Friday to set up a Big 12/Big Ten clash.

Trailing No. 11 seed Virginia Tech by a point in the waning seconds of the first half, Longhorns guard Marcus Carr banked in a 55-foot heave at the buzzer to give his team a 34-32 halftime lead. Texas (22-11 SU, 13-20 ATS) took that momentum and ran with it in the second half, posting an 81-73 victory as a 1.5-point favorite.

The win snapped the Longhorns’ three-game losing skid overall and three-game slide in NCAA Tournament play. It was Texas’ first March Madness triumph since 2015.

Purdue (28-7, 14-19-2 ATS) notched its first Tourney victory since the 2019 Sweet 16, routing Ivy League champ and 14th-seeded Yale 78-56 as a 16.5-point chalk. It was the first time the Boilermakers held an opponent under 60 points since a 79-59 victory over Incarnate Word on Dec. 20.

Both these squads halted lengthy ATS slumps Friday. The Longhorns failed to cover in seven straight games, while Purdue was 0-8-2 ATS in its previous 10. Texas also snapped an 0-10 ATS drought in Tournament action.

Additionally, the Longhorns are 2-6 ATS in their last eight as an underdog, while the Boilermakers are 7-18-2 ATS in their last 27 when laying points.

Both also topped the total in the opening round, pushing the Over to 12-4 in Texas’ last 16 Tournament games and 4-1 in Purdue’s last five in this event. That said, the Boilermakers were on a 6-0 Under roll prior to Friday.

BetMGM pegged Purdue a 3.5-point favorite at the outset, and the line remains there this morning. The Boilermakers are getting a slim majority 53% of spread bets, but 67% of spread money is on the underdog Longhorns. The total is up a point to 134.5, with early ticket count 5/1 and early money 9/1 on the Over.

UPDATE 11 A.M. ET SUNDAY: Two days after hanging on for its first NCAA Tournament win in six years, Miami will try to make it two in a row when it faces the region’s No. 2 seed.

The Hurricanes (24-10, 19-14-1 ATS) survived a final-shot scare against No. 7 seed USC in Friday’s opening round, escaping with a 68-66 victory as a 2-point underdog. Miami has won four of its last five SU and ATS. The lone blemish: an 80-76 defeat to Duke in the ACC tournament semifinals.

Auburn easily ousted 15th-seeded Jacksonville State, cruising 80-61 as a 14-point chalk for its first Tournament win since losing in the 2019 Final Four. The Tigers spent several weeks ranked No. 1 this season, thanks to a 19-game winning streak that stretched from Nov. 25-Feb. 5. However, they’re just 6-4 SU since, and they’ve followed a 13-2 ATS run by going 3-8 ATS in their last 11.

Miami is still just 2-6 ATS in its last eight NCAA Tournament games, but is otherwise on positive spread-covering runs of 23-8-1 as an underdog, 6-1 as a neutral-site ’dog, and 4-1 as a pup in the Tournament.

Auburn has cashed in five straight March Madness outings, but is 2-5 ATS in its last seven as a favorite this season.

Both teams stayed Under the total in their first-round games. That said, the Over is 6-2 in Miami’s last eight overall, 11-4 in Miami’s last 15 Tourney games, and 5-1 in Auburn’s last six in the Big Dance.

The Tigers were installed as a 7-point favorite, but have since ticked up to -7.5. The total is 144.5, up a point from the 143.5 send-out.

Auburn is a stable 7.5-point chalk at BetMGM, where underdog Miami is netting 57% of early spread bets and 64% of early spread dollars. The total moved from 143.5 to 144.5, then back to 143.5, with 54% of bets/84% of money on the Under.

UPDATE 11 A.M. ET SUNDAY: Two grind-it-out teams will fight for a Sweet 16 berth in Milwaukee.

Wisconsin (25-7 SU, 17-15 ATS) battled to a 67-60 victory over No. 14 seed Colgate on Friday, but the Badgers fell a hair short of cashing as 7.5-point favorites.

Wisconsin ended a two-game losing streak but failed to cover for the third straight game after going 5-0 SU (4-1 ATS) in its five previous games . The Badgers shared the Big Ten regular-season title with Illinois but were upset by Michigan State in their first game at the conference tournament.

Wisconsin is seeking its first Sweet 16 since 2017.

Iowa State (21-12 SU, 18-15 ATS) continued its remarkable turnaround from a 2-22 season a year ago, knocking off No. 6 seed LSU 59-54 on Friday as a 3-point underdog. The Cyclones earned their first NCAA Tournament victory since 2017 and are gunning for their first Sweet 16 trip since 2016.

Friday’s win snapped Iowa State’s three-game skid (1-2 ATS), including an embarrassing 72-41 loss to Texas Tech at the Big 12 tournament.

Both Wisconsin’s and Iowa State’s first-round games stayed Under. The Under is now 4-1 in the Badgers’ past five games. The Cyclones’ past two games have stayed low after four of their previous five went Over.

Wisconsin is up a point to -4.5 at BetMGM, where ticket count is 2/1 and money approaching 3/1 on the Badgers. The total rose from 124.5 to 125.5, with ticket count 3/1 and money 5/1 on the Over.

UPDATE 10:45 A.M. ET SUNDAY: Two teams coming off double-digit first-round victories — one expected, one not — duke it out in America’s Finest City with a Sweet 16 bid on the line.

After surviving Wednesday’s First Four double-overtime thriller against Rutgers in Dayton, Ohio, Notre Dame (24-10 SU, 18-15 ATS) traveled to San Diego and took out No. 6 seed Alabama 78-64 as a 4-point underdog. The Irish, back in the Big Dance for the first time since 2017, haven’t made it out of the first weekend since losing back-to-back regional finals in 2015 and 2016.

Texas Tech, which normally leans on its defense, exploded for a season-high point total in a 97-62 thrashing of 14th-seeded Montana State, easily cashing as a hefty 14.5-point chalk. Even with the blowout, the Red Raiders (26-9 SU, 22-13 ATS) are still just 4-3 SU/2-5 ATS in their last seven contests.

Notre Dame is 5-1 ATS in its last six as an underdog, but 3-7 ATS in its last 10 at neutral venues.

Texas Tech — which lost in the second round last year after reaching the national championship game and Elite Eight in consecutive seasons in 2018 and 2019 — is now 7-2 ATS in its last nine NCAA Tournament contests.

The Irish were on an 8-0-1 Over tear before Friday’s game against Alabama stayed low (pushing the Under to 18-7-1 in their last 26 March Madness games). The Under also is 7-3 both in the Red Raiders’ last 10 neutral-site games and last 10 NCAA Tourney outings.

Texas Tech landed on BetMGM’s Sunday NCAA Tournament odds board as a 7.5-point chalk, and the line hasn’t moved yet. The Red Raiders are seeing 60% of spread tickets and 59% of spread cash. The total of 132.5 is also stable, with 57% of bets on the Over, but 73% of cash on the Under.

UPDATE 10:45 A.M. ET SUNDAY: Duke had little trouble Friday with No. 15 seed Cal State Fullerton, rolling to a 78-61 victory, but falling just short of cashing as an 18.5-point chalk. The Blue Devils (29-6 SU, 17-16-2 ATS) have failed to cover in five straight games and are 3-8 ATS in their last 11. Further, Duke is in an 0-6 ATS rut in NCAA Tournament play.

Meanwhile, Michigan State hung on Friday against No. 10 seed Davidson to set up the Krzyzewski vs. Izzo matchup. The Spartans (23-12 SU, 19-15-1 ATS) notched a 74-73 victory as 1.5-point underdogs Friday. That stretched Michigan State’s ATS win streak to five games, following a 2-8 ATS purge. The Spartans are on a 5-0 ATS run on neutral courts, as well.

These college basketball bluebloods have met regularly over the past decade, including in the NCAA Tournament. The most recent clash was last season at Duke, and Michigan State pulled out a 75-69 victory as a four-point underdog. In fact, the ‘dog 4-1 SU/5-0 ATS in the last five series battles dating to November 2016.

The last three Tournament meetings have come in the Elite Eight or Final Four. Duke won and covered the first two (2013, 2015), while the Spartans won and covered the most recent (2019).

Duke’s 6-0 Over spree ended against Fullerton (total 146), but the Over is still 11-3 in the Blue Devils’ last 14 games overall and 5-1 in their last six neutral-site contests. The Over is 6-1 in Michigan State’s last seven, with Friday’s tilt against Davidson topping the 139.5-point total.

Duke opened and remains a 6.5-point favorite at BetMGM, where it’s nearly dead-even two-way action. The Blue Devils are netting 52% of spread tickets and 53% of spread money. The total opened at 144.5 and stuck there Saturday, but it’s up 2 points this morning to 146.5, with 70% of tickets/87% of cash on the Over.

UPDATE 11 A.M. ET SUNDAY: Arizona ended a mini-NCAA Tournament drought Friday, but that was nothing compared to TCU.

Arizona (32-3 SU, 20-14-1 ATS) earned its first Tournament victory since 2018, but the Wildcats did not cover as 21.5-point favorites in an 87-70 victory over No. 16 seed Wright State.

Arizona, the Pac-12 regular-season and tournament champion, is seeking its first Sweet 16 since reaching back-to-back Elite Eights in 2014 and 2015.

The Wildcats have won seven straight (4-3 ATS).

TCU (21-12 SU, 19-11-3 ATS) earned its first NCAA Tournament victory since 1987, crushing No. 8 seed Seton Hall 69-42 as a 1.5-point underdog. The Horned Frogs are 7-2 ATS in their past nine (5-4 SU).

TCU’s victory completed a 6-0 SU and ATS sweep for the Big 12 in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. The average margin of victory for Big 12 teams was 23 points, including four double-digit blowouts of 27 or more.

The Horned Frogs are seeking their first Sweet 16 since the Tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985.

Arizona’s game Friday stayed Under, snapping a six-game Over streak. The Wildcats are 20-15 to the Over this season. The Under has cashed in six straight TCU games.

The Wildcats opened and remain a 9.5-point favorite in BetMGM’s Sunday NCAA Tournament odds market. Arizona is collecting 60% of early spread bets and 70% of early spread dollars. The total is out to 145.5 from a 143.5 opener, with tickets 2/1-plus and money almost 4/1 on the Over.

UPDATE 11 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Illinois barely survived its first-round game Friday, and now the Illini are underdogs to lower-seeded (but more-well-regarded) Houston.

Illinois (23-9 SU, 13-19 ATS) led for less than a minute of game time, but the Big Ten regular-season co-champions survived a last-second shot to beat No. 13 seed Chattanooga 54-53.

The Illini never came close to covering as 7.5-point favorites, and they have now failed to beat the number in five of their past six games (despite going 4-2 SU). The ATS drought includes a 65-63 loss to Indiana in their first Big Ten tournament game.

Illinois is seeking its first Sweet 16 since losing in the national championship game in 2005.

Houston (30-5, 23-12 ATS) remains a covering machine, holding off No. 12 seed UAB 82-68 as an 8.5-point favorite Friday. The Cougars, the American Athletic Conference regular-season and tournament champions, have won and covered in four straight and eight of nine overall.

Houston is arguably the most underseeded team in the NCAA Tournament. The Cougars are third in the highly respected KenPom rankings. The only teams above them are the four No. 1 seeds in the NCAAs.

Houston is seeking a second straight trip to the Final Four after losing to eventual national champion Baylor in last year’s semifinals.

Illinois is now 21-6-1 to the Under in its past 28 NCAA Tournament games after Friday’s low-scoring slugfest. Also, four straight Illini games overall have stayed Under. The Under is 5-2-1 in the past eight for Houston.

Houston opened and remains a 4.5-point chalk tonight at WynnBet, and it’s two-way action on the point spread. The Cougars are taking 54% of tickets and 57% of money. The total is stable at 133.5, with a ticket count of 4/1 and money running 2/1 on the Over.

UPDATE 10:45 A.M. ET SUNDAY: Villanova opened -5.5 at BetMGM and this morning dropped a point to -4.5. The Wildcats are drawing 58% of spread bets, while spread money is running almost dead even. The total opened at 131.5, spent time at 132.5, then this morning shot up to 134.5. Updated betting splits weren’t available, though prior to that 2-point surge, tickets and money were beyond 2/1 on the Over.

UPDATE 11 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Two teams that barely surrendered a combined 100 points in their opening-round matches meet for a berth in the Sweet 16.

In what was arguably the ugliest game of the entire first round, Ohio State (20-11 SU, 16-15 ATS) took out 10th-seeded Loyola Chicago 54-41 on Friday, covering as a 1-point underdog. The Buckeyes, who entered March Madness in a 1-4 SU/ATS slump, advanced to the second round for the first time since 2018.

Villanova (27-7 SU, 17-16-1 ATS) struggled for most of the first half against No. 15 seed Delaware, but opened a 10-point lead by halftime and rolled to an 80-60 victory as a 15-point chalk. The Wildcats, who won the Big East conference tournament, have won six in a row and 11 of 12. However, they’ve alternated spread-covers in their last six games and are just 5-8-1 ATS in their last 14.

Ohio State, which hasn’t made the Sweet 16 since 2015, has cashed in four straight games as an underdog and five of six as a neutral-site pup. However, the Buckeyes are just 2-10 ATS in their last 12 Tournament contests. Conversely, Villanova is on a 17-5 ATS tear in the Tourney (16-5 ATS as a chalk).

Even though Ohio State never came close to the 133-point total against Loyola-Chicago, the Over remains 21-10 in its last 31 March Madness games.

Late Saturday night, Villanova is laying 5 points at WynnBet, down a half-point from the -5.5 opener. The Wildcats are taking 74% of spread tickets and 63% of spread money. The total is stable at 132.5, with tickets 3/1 and money 2/1 on the Over.