This column is all about MLB players to bet on this week who are on the verge of breaking out. We’ll help you get ahead of the oddsmakers, which can also lead to identifying some contrarian DFS picks!
No matter how talented a hitter, there are always spells during a long MLB season where many of their metrics indicate they’re doing everything right, but the results they’re producing are anything but.
These rough stretches are often accompanied by abnormally low BABIP (Batting Average of Balls in Play) figures, and when we combine those scenarios with several other numbers that would appear to portend success at the plate, we can sometimes get ahead as prop bettors in identifying batters who may be due for a reversal of fortune.
In Simmering Sluggers, we’ll aim to highlight five MLB players to bet each week for the remainder of the season, examining a suite of key numbers over a reasonable sample size in an attempt to pinpoint such opportunities.
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We’re seeking players who’ve had a line-drive rate – which is normally highly correlated to elevated batting average over time – of at least 20.0%, along with a BABIP of .250 or less, a strikeout rate of 20.0% or less, and a hard-contact rate of over 30.0% at minimum during a sample that covers at least their last 30 plate appearances.
First, a quick look at how our five selections from last week performed:
- Kerry Carpenter, DET: .273/.304/.636 slash line, one triple, two home runs, six RBI, one walk, four runs (23 PAs)
- Jonah Heim, TEX: .214/.353/.286 slash line, one double, three walks, two runs (17 PAs)
- Cedric Mullins, NYM: .333/.400/.333 slash line, one walk, one run (10 PAs)
- Alex Bregman, BOS: .250/.348/.450 slash line, one double, one home run, two RBI, three walks, four runs (23 PAs)
- Wilmer Flores, SFG: .133/.188/.133 slash line, one RBI, one walk (16 PAs)
MLB Players To Bet: Unlucky Hitters Due To Bounce Back
Here’s this week’s five hard-luck hitters primed for potential turnarounds:
Jose Ramirez, CLE
23.7% line-drive rate
.246 BABIP
15.4% strikeout rate
33.9% hard-contact rate (78 PAs)
Schedule next 7 days: @DET- 9/16, 9/17, 9/18; @MIN- 9/19, 9/20 (doubleheader), 9/21; vs. DET- 9/23
Ramirez remains as dangerous a hitter as ever in his age-32 season, as he’s carrying an impressive .281/.354/.499 slash line across 145 games. He’s reached the 60-extra-base-hit threshold for the fifth consecutive season as well, and he’s pushed season line-drive rate back over 20.0% (20.3%) after a dip to 16.9% last season.
However, the last three weeks haven’t been too kind to Ramirez, despite the fact he’s outperforming his season-long LD rate and is still making contact at a higher-than-average clip. Despite squaring up consistently, Ramirez has been saddled with a .225 average in the sample cited above, and his impressive skill set makes him a formidable candidate to break out of his struggles in coming games.
Additionally, it’s worth noting the coming week is loaded with starting pitcher matchups Ramirez has previously thrived in – he’s a combined 42-for-134 (.313) with eight doubles, two triples, seven home runs and 18 RBI against Casey Mize, Jack Flaherty, Pablo Lopez, Bailey Ober and Joe Ryan in his career.
Gleyber Torres, DET
22.0% line-drive rate
.229 BABIP
18.5% strikeout rate
30.0% hard-contact rate (81 PAs)
Schedule next 7 days: vs. CLE- 9/16, 9/17, 9/18; vs. ATL- 9/19, 9/20, 9/21; @CLE- 9/23
Torres is another accomplished veteran hitter that’s been at odds with Lady Luck recently, even as he’s still sporting a .362 OBP and .752 OPS for the season. However, he’s seen his batting average, which sat at .286 as recently as July 22, dip all the way to .255 entering Sept. 16 action, partly because of the slump cited above.
Torres’ average over that three-week sample sits at an anemic .203 despite the solid batted-ball profile and his modest strikeout rate in the same period. Moreover, Torres’ LD rate is even a bit better than his 21.4% season-long figure, so even a modest jump in his BABIP paired with similar contact should result in more hits falling in.
Mike Yastrzemski, KCR
20.0% line-drive rate
.229 BABIP
9.5% strikeout rate
44.0% hard-contact rate (63 PAs)
Schedule next 7 days: vs. SEA- 9/16, 9/17, 9/18; vs. TOR – 9/19, 9/20, 9/21; @LAA- 9/23
Yastrzemski has been featured once prior in this article and enjoyed a big turnaround that week. He’s back for an encore appearance after another stretch where he’s found himself on the wrong side of luck, even while still tearing the cover off the ball and generating the highest hard-contact rate of any of this week’s group, by far.
Yastrzemski has hit only .236 during the three-week sample, although he’s at least seen his hard contact pay off to a degree with eight extra-base hits (six doubles, two homers). While those numbers are impressive, there’s an argument to be made that Yaz should have gotten on base even more frequently were it not for a drastically low BABIP.
If he can keep the LD rate elevated while continuing to put such good wood on the ball, another more well-rounded surge could be in order.
Mitch Garver, SEA
20.0% line-drive rate
.167 BABIP
6.7% strikeout rate
36.0% hard-contact rate (64 PAs)
Schedule next 7 days: @KCR- 9/16, 9/17, 9/18; @HOU- 9/19, 9/20, 9/21; vs. COL- 9/23
Garver is only a part-time player for the Mariners but does trend to draw 3-4 starts per week on a fairly regular basis. The veteran hasn’t come close to replicating some of his previous breakout seasons in Minnesota and Texas since arriving in Seattle last season, but Garver has had some inordinately poor luck when putting the ball in play recently.
The .167 BABIP in the sample above is absurdly meager, and it’s all the more glaring when paired with his tiny strikeout rate and strong hard-contact rate. Garver has displayed some decent pop over his long career as well, so a better stretch of hitting could well be on the horizon for him.
Miguel Vargas, CWS
20.0% line-drive rate
.208 BABIP
17.6% strikeout rate
32.0% hard-contact rate (34 PAs)
Schedule next 7 days: vs. BAL- 9/16, 9/17; vs. SDP- 9/19, 9/20, 9/21; @NYY- 9/23
Vargas’ .231/.312/.397 season slash line is actually comprised of career-best figures across the board, and the ascending infielder also counts his 47 extra-base hits, including 14 homers, and 53 RBI among his other new high-water marks this season. The bulk of the sample cited above consists of the 20 PAs Vargas has logged since returning from an IL stay due to a hand injury, and now that he’s had a few games back under his belt, Vargas could be ready to snap out of his funk.
His LD rate in the sample cited above is an improvement on his season-long 18.6% figure, and his BABIP in that same span represents a precipitous drop from his already-low .257 season-long figure. Vargas also has a good individual matchup coming up within the next week in that of Padres starter Yu Darvish, who he’s gotten to for a .600 average with a triple and a homer in five career encounters.
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