This column is all about MLB players to bet on this week who are on the verge of breaking out. We’ll help you get ahead of the oddsmakers, which can also lead to identifying some contrarian DFS picks!
No matter how talented a hitter, there are always spells during a long MLB season where many of their metrics indicate they’re doing everything right, but the results they’re producing are anything but.
These rough stretches are often accompanied by abnormally low BABIP (Batting Average of Balls in Play) figures, and when we combine those scenarios with several other numbers that would appear to portend success at the plate, we can sometimes get ahead as prop bettors in identifying batters who may be due for a reversal of fortune.
In Simmering Sluggers, we’ll aim to highlight five MLB players to bet each week for the remainder of the season, examining a suite of key numbers over a reasonable sample size in an attempt to pinpoint such opportunities.
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We’re seeking players who’ve had a line-drive rate – which is normally highly correlated to elevated batting average over time – of at least 20.0%, along with a BABIP of .250 or less, a strikeout rate of 20.0% or less, and a hard-contact rate of over 30.0% at minimum during a sample that covers at least their last 30 plate appearances.
MLB Players To Bet: Unlucky Hitters Due To Bounce Back
First, a quick look at how our five selections from last week performed:
- Jose Ramirez, CLE: .310/.444/.586 slash line, two doubles, two home runs, five RBI, six walks, two stolen bases, one hit by pitch, nine runs (36 PAs)
- Gleyber Torres, DET: .333/.400/.481 slash line, one double, one home run, two RBI, three walks, four runs (26 PAs)
- Mike Yastrzemski, KCR: .182/.269/.273 slash line, two doubles, one RBI, three walks, one sacrifice fly, two runs (26 PAs)
- Mitch Garver, SEA: .000/.167/.000 slash line, one RBI, one walk, one sacrifice fly (six PAs)
- Miguel Vargas, CWS: .217/.280/.391 slash line, one double, one home run, four RBI, two walks, two runs (25 PAs)
Here are this week’s five hard-luck hitters primed for potential turnarounds:
Nick Gonzales, PIT
- 20.7% line-drive rate
- .241 BABIP
- 17.6% strikeout rate
- 34.5% hard-contact rate (74 PAs)
Schedule rest of season: @CIN- 9/24, 9/25; @ATL- 9/26, 9/27, 9/28
Gonzales is sporting a serviceable .264/.303/.367 slash line for the season after an 0-for-4 night Tuesday, but his blanking at the plate extended what has already been a relatively extended stretch of tough luck for the young infielder as the season winds down.
Gonzales isn’t known for his power – just 24 of his 95 hits have gone for extra bases – but he went into Tuesday having put particularly good wood on the ball of late.
Despite his hard contact and a typically low strikeout rate, Gonzales has mustered just a .200 average in the above-referenced span, which leaves him poised to finish the season in more productive fashion.
TJ Friedl, CIN
- 20.8% line-drive rate
- .200 BABIP
- 9.8% strikeout rate
- 34.0% hard-contact rate (81 PAs)
Schedule rest of season: vs. PIT- 9/24, 9/25; @MIL- 9/26, 9/27, 9/28
Friedl has improved both his batting average and OBP considerably over last season, and he’ll enter Wednesday with an especially impressive .361 figure in the latter category.
Nevertheless, Lady Luck hasn’t been on Friedl’s side very often recently, despite the fact his batted-ball metrics have been very solid.
Friedl’s .200 BABIP and .188 average during the sample listed above tell the tale of how frustrating it’s been for the veteran outfielder.
The lefty-swinging 30-year-old has been a mainstay in the lineup since he’s more than held his own in same-handed matchups (.244 average, .330 OBP vs. LHPs), and his last three games are on the road, where he’s been much better (.769 OPS) than at home (.689 OPS).
Luis Garcia, Jr., WAS
- 22.2% line-drive rate
- .182 BABIP
- 16.9% strikeout rate
- 43.5% hard-contact rate (59 PAs)
Schedule rest of season: @ATL- 9/24; vs. CWS – 9/26, 9/27, 9/28
Garcia’s tough luck continued Tuesday, when he went 0-for-4 to sink his batting average to .253 on the season. The talented infielder has hit .275 over the 2022-24 seasons, so he’s had his share of adversity at the plate over the course of the entire campaign.
However, Garcia’s recent slump could be considered a legitimate case of tough luck for the most part, considering how hard he’s been hitting the ball.
Garcia’s season-long .292 xBA and 30.4% squared-up rate are already in the 93rd and 87th percentile, respectively, and considering he also has a strikeout rate well under 20% in the sample cited above, he has all the ingredients for a potential strong finish to the season.
He also should draw some favorable pitching matchups to close things out, considering the struggles of both the Braves and White Sox hurlers this season.
Drew Gilbert, SFG
- 20.5% line-drive rate
- .158 BABIP
- 18.2% strikeout rate
- 31.7% hard-contact rate (55 PAs)
Schedule rest of season: vs. STL- 9/24; vs. COL- 9/25, 9/26, 9/27
Gilbert is the one rookie on this list, and like many players in their first big-league cup of coffee, he’s had his share of challenges at the plate in his first exposure to major-league arms.
However, the 2022 first-round pick of the Astros has shown some encouraging flashes, and going into Tuesday night’s action, he’d laced nine of his 18 hits for extra bases.
Gilbert hasn’t been fooled very often recently, either, as the numbers cited in his three-week sample above indicate. Yet, the rookie has been rarely rewarded for his solid and consistent contact, as he’s mustered just a .146 batting average during that span.
Although he’ll finish out his first season in his hitter-friendly home park, the fact that his last three games will afford him exposure to the Rockies’ abysmal starting rotation/bullpen should give him a solid shot of going out on a high note.
Darell Hernaiz, ATH
- 24.5% line-drive rate
- .204 BABIP
- 9.7% strikeout rate
- 31.4% hard-contact rate (62 PAs)
Schedule rest of season: vs. HOU- 9/24, 9/25; vs. KCR- 9/26, 9/27, 9/28
Hernaiz hasn’t come close to matching the success he’s enjoyed at Triple-A Las Vegas at the big-league level, and that’s been particularly true over the last several weeks.
The young infielder has been making contact at an elite rate and putting good wood on the ball when he has, yet he has little to show for it.
Hernaiz has generated a paltry .185 batting average during the sample, and his unusually low BABIP is the primary culprit, given the rest of his metrics are largely in order.
However, he’ll close out the regular season in the hitter-friendly confines of Sutter Health Park, which always gives him a chance to convert some of his rocket shots into base hits.
