Football Sundays are always full of excitement and opportunities, especially when it comes to playing smart and taking advantage of PrizePicks NFL value plays.
This week, I’ve zeroed in on three key PrizePicks plays that not only align with sharp sportsbook lines but also provide favorable discrepancies you can leverage.
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Let’s break down these plays and the reasons behind each pick, so you can take full advantage this weekend.
Play 1: Sam Darnold MORE Than 231.5 Passing Yards
Sam Darnold comes into this week’s matchup with a PrizePicks projection set at 231.5 passing yards, while sportsbooks like FanDuel have him listed at 234.5. The odds on Caesars favor the over on 234.5 passing yards at -128, which is an indication that sharp money is on Darnold to pass this mark. With PrizePicks offering the lower number, it’s a great spot to grab additional value.
Industry projections have Darnold throwing for somewhere between 260 and 280 yards in this game, making the over 231.5 even more enticing.
What adds to the confidence here is the game script. The Vikings come in as 3.5-point underdogs, meaning they’ll likely be chasing the game in the second half, which sets up for a pass-heavy game script.
Furthermore, the game will be played in a dome, eliminating weather concerns like wind or rain, making it ideal for quarterbacks to rack up passing yards.
In short, all signs point to Darnold having a solid day through the air, making this over one of the stronger plays on the PrizePicks NFL board.
Play 2: Ladd McConkey MORE Than 37.5 Receiving Yards
Next up, we have Ladd McConkey, whose PrizePicks receiving yards projection is set at 37.5. Sportsbooks, including FanDuel, have him at 39.5 receiving yards with odds of -113 to go over. This gives us a 2-yard discount on PrizePicks, and in a game of inches, every yard counts.
Projections support the over, as they have McConkey racking up between 45 and 50 yards.
The matchup is favorable as well. The Steelers’ defense has allowed 8.93 adjusted passing yards per attempt to wide receivers since last season. This stat highlights Pittsburgh’s struggles in the secondary, creating a prime opportunity for McConkey to exceed his yardage total.
Combine that with a game script that is likely to see more passing attempts, and McConkey should easily clear the 37.5-yard mark.
Play 3: Amon-Ra St. Brown MORE Than 6.5 Receptions
Amon-Ra St. Brown is one of the most reliable and consistent receivers in the league, and this week’s matchup is no exception. PrizePicks has his receptions projection set at 6.5, and FanDuel has the over at -138, indicating strong market support for him to hit at least 7 receptions.
Projections have St. Brown seeing over 10 targets in this game, which is more than enough opportunity for him to catch 7 or more passes. Playing in a dome, we once again avoid any weather-related issues, which helps solidify confidence in this pick.
St. Brown’s elite status as a wide receiver combined with a great matchup makes this a prime spot to back him in your PrizePicks entries.
With favorable odds, solid projections, and no weather factors in play, this is one of the most reliable picks you can include for the Sunday slate.
Tip of the Day: Maximize Value Through Discrepancies
When placing your plays, one of the best strategies is to look for discrepancies between sportsbooks and PrizePicks.
Since PrizePicks doesn’t adjust payouts based on odds, you can often find value by identifying lines that are “juiced” in a certain direction on sportsbooks like FanDuel and Caesars.
For example, if a player is heavily favored to hit the over on a certain stat on sportsbooks, but the PrizePicks projection is lower, you’re getting better value by locking in the PrizePicks number.
Additionally, paying attention to market movements and sharp betting activity can give you an edge when picking your plays.