As the NBA season kicks off, tonight’s matchups offer some intriguing opportunities for bettors. I’ve zeroed in on a few plays that present strong value based on projections, team tendencies, and recent trends and will be analyzing a points prop, assists prop and rebounds prop.
Let’s dive into the top three picks for today’s action.
Sharp Selections: NBA Points, Assists & Rebounds Props Today
Opening night is here and we have our top point, rebound, and assist props below.
POINTS: Anthony Davis Less Than 25.5
Anthony Davis is undoubtedly one of the premier talents in the NBA, but tonight’s matchup against the Minnesota Timberwolves offers a challenge. With his points line set at 25.5, I’m leaning toward less than 25.5 for a variety of reasons.
First, Davis is only projected to score around 22 points tonight, significantly lower than the listed number. This projection aligns with Minnesota’s defensive strengths. Last season, the Timberwolves were the stingiest team in the league when it came to allowing points to starting power forwards. This trend should continue, with the Wolves likely making it difficult for Davis to find easy scoring opportunities.
Additionally, the odds for Davis to go under 25.5 points sit at -130, indicating that sportsbooks also favor the under. Another factor to consider is the pace of play. Minnesota has one of the slowest offenses in the league, ranking near the bottom in tempo. A slower-paced game means fewer possessions and fewer scoring opportunities, which plays into Davis falling short here. Overall, given the matchup and pace concerns, this line seems set a bit too high, making this pick a strong play.
NBA Player Prop Special: Tuesday, Oct. 22
ASSISTS: Jalen Brunson Less Than 7
Next up is Jalen Brunson, whose assist number is set at 7 for tonight’s contest. Brunson has been a key playmaker for the Knicks, but there are reasons to believe he’ll fall short of this number in tonight’s road game.
First, Brunson is projected to record just 6 assists, right around his average of 6.7 assists per game from last season. While Brunson has the ability to facilitate, this matchup, combined with his road status, presents challenges. Road games typically carry additional risks for players, and we can expect some variance in his assist totals away from Madison Square Garden.
The odds for Brunson to go under 7.5 assists are set at -140, highlighting the betting market’s expectation of him finishing under that number. This aligns with his historical performance, as Brunson has not been a consistent high-assist guard. He is more of a balanced player, contributing both in scoring and assisting, but given the number and projection, less than 7 assists looks like a solid play here.
REBOUNDS: Anthony Edwards More Than 5
Finally, let’s shift our focus to Anthony Edwards, who has been a rising star in the league. His rebound number is set at 5, and I’m betting he’ll surpass this number tonight.
Edwards is projected to grab 6 or more rebounds tonight, and given his ability to impact the game on both ends of the floor, this seems like a strong pick. Last season, Edwards averaged 5 defensive rebounds per game, showcasing his ability to contribute on the glass, especially when matched up against teams that shoot a high volume of long-range shots like the Lakers.
The odds for Edwards to go over 4.5 rebounds are set at -140, reinforcing the likelihood of him hitting this mark. Additionally, in his last five matchups against the Lakers, Edwards has cashed this number in three games, showing a track record of rebounding success in this matchup. With his defensive presence and knack for chasing down boards, I expect him to cash once again.
Tuesday, October 22 NBA Recap
Tonight’s slate offers several intriguing plays. Anthony Davis is set up for a tough night against a strong Timberwolves defense, while Jalen Brunson’s assist number looks a bit too high given the road environment.
On the flip side, Anthony Edwards’ rebound projection presents solid value, given his track record and the matchup against the Lakers.
As always, it’s essential to keep an eye on projections, odds, and team tendencies when making your picks. Best of luck!
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