With a mix of NBA and NFL action on Monday night, there are some strong PrizePicks opportunities to target. I’ve identified a few key plays across both leagues that present excellent value based on odds, matchups, and projected game flow.
Here’s a breakdown of why these selections make sense for tonight’s games.
Sharp Selections: NBA & NFL Top PrizePicks
MORE PROPS: NFL | NBA | MLB | NHL | PGA | CFB
Props analyst Griffin Alvey runs through his favorite player picks for the upcoming slates.
Monday NBA Plays
Franz Wagner More Than 10 Rebounds + Assists
Franz Wagner’s number is set at 10 rebounds and assists, but there are several reasons to lean toward him missing tonight. Sportsbooks have this number at 9.5, and the Pacers present a challenging matchup for forwards. This season, Indiana has allowed the fewest assists per game to forwards and ranks fourth-best in limiting rebounds to the position.
Given this stingy defense, it’s likely that Wagner will struggle to rack up high numbers in these categories. With such a difficult matchup, I see Wagner finishing at 9 or fewer combined rebounds and assists.
Alperen Sengun More Than 12.5 Rebounds + Assists
Alperen Sengun has a favorable setup heading into tonight’s game. The number for his rebounds and assists is set at 12.5, and DraftKings has him favored at -135 to go over. The matchup couldn’t be better: the Spurs have given up the second-most assists per game to centers and the 11th-most rebounds per game to the position.
With the Spurs struggling to contain opposing big men, Sengun should have ample opportunity to surpass this number. Given the odds and matchup, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him cash this fairly easily.
Daniel Gafford More Than 8.5 Points + Assists
Daniel Gafford’s number for points and assists is set at 8.5, and sportsbooks favor the over at -130. The Jazz have struggled defensively against centers, giving up the 7th-most points and ranking 19th in assists allowed per game to the position.
While Gafford could hit this number with just points alone, the matchup gives him an opportunity to contribute with a few assists as well. With the defensive deficiencies of the Jazz against opposing centers, Gafford is in a good spot to surpass this number.
Monday NFL Plays
Russell Wilson Less Than 18.5 Pass Completions
Russell Wilson’s number for pass completions is set at 18.5. The Giants’ defense has allowed the 16th-fewest completions this season, showing they can limit opposing quarterbacks to some extent. Additionally, the Steelers are slight underdogs, but the game is expected to stay close, which could favor a ground-heavy approach.
Pittsburgh has already been running the ball on over 50% of their plays this season, and with the Giants allowing the 11th-most rushing yards to running backs, it makes sense for the Steelers to stick to the run. This game plan would naturally limit Wilson’s passing volume and keep him falling short of 18.5 completions.
Najee Harris More Than 64.5 Rushing Yards
Najee Harris is in a strong position to go over his rushing yardage number of 64.5. The projection is favored to hit the over at nearly -130 odds, and it correlates well with the Russell Wilson play. As mentioned earlier, the Giants have given up the 11th-most rushing yards to running backs this season, and Pittsburgh’s tendency to run the ball on over 50% of their plays suggests Harris will get plenty of carries.
Considering the favorable matchup and projected game flow, Harris could easily surpass 64.5 rushing yards, with the potential to reach 70-80 yards on the ground. The combination of volume and matchup makes this a solid play.
Why These Plays Make Sense Tonight
Each of these plays is supported by a combination of favorable odds, matchups, and expected game scripts.
In the NBA, Franz Wagner faces a tough matchup against the Pacers’ defense, while Alperen Sengun and Daniel Gafford find themselves in advantageous situations against weaker defenses.
In the NFL, Russell Wilson’s potential for a low-volume passing game and Najee Harris’ favorable rushing matchup set the stage for smart picks that correlate with the anticipated game flow.
Tip of the Day: Correlation Can Enhance Your Picks
When building your PrizePicks entries, consider how different plays may correlate with each other.
For instance, if you expect a team to rely heavily on the run, it can make sense to take the under on passing stats for the quarterback and the over on rushing stats for the running back. This approach helps maximize your chances of hitting multiple plays by betting on a consistent game narrative.
