Monday night brings an exciting lineup of NBA action, and with it, some high-value PrizePicks plays. By analyzing player matchups, defensive tendencies, and current odds, I’ve identified six PrizePicks selections that stand out for tonight’s slate.
Here’s a look at each pick and the reasoning behind it.
NBA Props Preview: Monday, November 11
Let’s break down each pick and the reasons why we’re going MORE or LESS.
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1. Cameron Johnson More Than 19.5 Points + Rebounds
Johnson looks well-positioned to surpass this mark. The Pelicans’ defense has struggled against small forwards, giving up the 4th most three-pointers and ranking 18th in points allowed and 21st in rebounds allowed to the position.
With his shooting and rebounding ability, Johnson should have plenty of opportunities to rack up stats against this defense. Look for him to exceed 19.5 Points + Rebounds in tonight’s matchup.
2. Kevin Porter Jr. Less Than 13.5 Points + Assists
Kevin Porter Jr. faces a challenging defensive matchup tonight, with his Points + Assists number set at 13.5. The Thunder defense has been effective at containing shooting guards.
They allow the 5th-fewest points and the 6th-fewest assists to the position, limiting Porter’s opportunities for both scoring and facilitating. Given these defensive trends, this pick looks like a strong selection for Monday night.
3. Stephon Castle Less Than 16.5 Points + Rebounds
Castle is facing a Kings defense that has been particularly stingy against guard play. He is likely to find himself limited tonight against Sacramento’s lockdown defense, so this pick presents solid value.
4. Victor Wembanyama Less Than 23.5 Points
The Kings’ defense has been strong against centers, allowing the 5th-fewest points per game to the position. With a tough matchup and the odds pointing toward a lower scoring night for Wembanyama, it’s reasonable to expect him to finish around 20 points or less.
Less than 23.5 points is a sharp pick, especially considering Sacramento’s track record against opposing big men.
5. De’Aaron Fox Less Than 31.5 Points + Assists
Fox will be facing a Spurs defense that, while average overall, has been effective at containing point guards. San Antonio allows the 16th-fewest points and the 6th-fewest assists to opposing point guards, creating a challenging environment for Fox to reach this number.
With the Spurs’ defensive focus on limiting playmaking and scoring from opposing guards, less than 31.5 Points + Assists looks like a smart play.
6. Jose Alvarado More Than 14.5 Points
Jose Alvarado’s scoring number is set at 14.5, and he has a favorable matchup against a Nets defense that ranks 19th in points allowed to opposing point guards.
Alvarado’s aggressive play-style should allow him to take advantage of Brooklyn’s defensive weaknesses. Expect him to be active on offense, with a good chance of surpassing the 14.5-point projection in tonight’s game with the increased minutes and usage.
Monday Night’s Sharp Selections Recap
Each of tonight’s picks has been chosen based on defensive matchups and favorable odds. Here’s a quick recap of the best plays:
- Cameron Johnson More Than 19.5 Points + Rebounds
- Kevin Porter Jr. Less Than 13.5 Points + Assists
- Stephon Castle Less Than 16.5 Points + Rebounds
- Victor Wembanyama Less Than 23.5 Points
- De’Aaron Fox Less Than 31.5 Points + Assists
- Jose Alvarado More Than 14.5 Points
With a mix of plays across various stat projections, these selections offer a balanced approach to Monday’s PrizePicks slate.
Strategy Tip: Lean on Matchup Trends
When building your PrizePicks card, pay close attention to matchup-specific trends. Teams like the Thunder and Kings have shown consistent defensive strengths that are valuable to consider, particularly when looking at taking the lower. Conversely, identifying teams that struggle defensively in specific areas—such as the Pelicans’ struggles against small forwards—can help you find value in overs. Using matchup trends as a guide can make a big difference in your success rate.
Best of luck tonight, and let’s make Monday night a profitable one!
