It’s time for our Seattle vs Toronto Game 3 preview and make an ALCS Game 3 prediction! The Seattle Mariners are two wins away from ending a 49-year World Series drought, and honestly? They look like a team that knows it.
After defeating Toronto in both games at Rogers Centre—including a 10-3 beatdown in Game 2—Seattle heads home to T-Mobile Park with all the momentum, the better pitching, and history screaming in their favor.
Desperation makes people do crazy things. And the Blue Jays? They’re beyond desperate.
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Seattle vs Toronto Game 3 Preview
Remember when Toronto scored 34 runs in four games to sweep the Yankees out of the ALDS? Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hitting .529 with three bombs? Ernie Clement going 9-for-14? That offense looked unstoppable.
Through two games in this series, the Blue Jays have managed eight total hits and four runs. Eight. Hits.
Vlad’s sitting 0-for-7. George Springer has one hit in eight at-bats after his first-pitch leadoff homer in Game 1. The offense has completely vanished, and Seattle’s bullpen is a huge reason why.
Mariners’ relievers have faced 31 batters in this series and allowed exactly one hit. That’s hard to believe.
Meanwhile, Jorge Polanco has become an October legend. The 32-year-old second baseman—who could barely walk last year because of knee issues—has delivered three consecutive game-winning hits in the fifth inning or later.
He’s the first player ever to do that in the postseason. His three-run blast in Game 2 off Louis Varland basically buried Toronto’s hopes right there.
Game 3 Probable Pitchers
George Kirby gets the ball for Seattle, and he’s been elite this October. The right-hander has posted a 2.70 ERA across 10 playoff innings with 14 strikeouts against just one walk.
At T-Mobile Park during the regular season, he had a 3.38 ERA compared to 5.16 on the road—that home/road split matters.
His four-pitch arsenal, centered around a 96 mph fastball with ridiculous command, should give Toronto’s struggling lineup fits. The Blue Jays haven’t seen him this season, but they’ve studied the tape from his ALDS dominance.
On the flip side, Shane Bieber takes the mound for Toronto in what’s basically a must-win. The 2020 Cy Young winner has been solid since returning from Tommy John surgery—4-2 with a 3.57 ERA for the Jays after the trade deadline.
But his last outing? Lasted 2.2 innings in the ALDS against the Yankees, giving up three earned runs.
Bieber’s got the talent and the new “kick changeup” has been nasty (66.7% whiff rate), but he’s facing elimination pressure on the road at a venue that’s about to be absolutely electric. It’s the first ALCS game in Seattle since 2001. The crowd is going to be insane.
The bullpen setup might be the biggest mismatch in the series. Seattle’s bullpen has been historically dominant—we already covered the one-hit-in-31-batters stat. Andrés Muñoz (1.73 ERA, 38 saves in the regular season) is fresh and ready to slam the door.
At T-Mobile Park this year, Muñoz posted a 0.28 ERA. Point-two-eight.
Toronto’s bullpen? Shaky and overworked. Yariel Rodríguez walked three straight batters in Game 2 without recording an out. Louis Varland gave up the crushing Polanco homer.
The Jays added Max Scherzer and Chris Bassitt to the roster for length, but if Bieber can’t give them five quality innings, this game could get ugly fast.
Toronto vs Seattle Game 3 Prediction
Here’s where it gets interesting. Seattle is rightfully favored at -134 to -143. They’re the better team, they have momentum, they’re at home, and history says teams up 2-0 win 84% of the time.
But +114 to +118 on Toronto feels like real value for a team that won 94 games and just swept the Yankees. Yeah, they’ve been ice cold, but Vlad’s too good to stay silent forever. Regression exists. The Blue Jays earned their “Comeback Kids” nickname with 49 regular-season comeback wins—most in baseball.
The sharp angle here is recognizing what desperation can do. Toronto knows if they lose this game, they’re cooked. Down 3-0 has almost never been overcome.
This is their season on the line, and we’ve seen what elite teams can do with their backs against the wall.
Mariners vs Blue Jays Expert Pick
Look, Seattle should win this series. They’re the superior team right now, and if I’m betting the series outcome, I’m taking the Mariners all day.
But for an ALCS Game 3 prediction, specifically? I’m finding myself drawn to the value.
Toronto has too much talent to get swept off the floor at home. Bieber’s capable of five solid innings if his command is sharp. If Vlad gets one big hit early, that offense could remember how to breathe.
The plus-money on a team this good in a desperation spot feels like the sharp play, even if it’s ultimately a losing series bet.
The under 7 runs looks solid too—Kirby’s been dominant, T-Mobile Park suppresses scoring, and playoff baseball tightens up. But my attention lands on the Blue Jays moneyline.
ALCS Game 3 Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays To Win The Game
I’m not saying Toronto wins this series. I’m saying they don’t go down without landing at least one punch, and getting plus-money on a 94-win team with championship aspirations in a must-win game offers legitimate value.
Seattle will likely close this out at home in Game 4 or 5, but Wednesday night? Give me the desperate team catching plus-money.
