Saturday NCAA Tournament Odds: Two-Way Play On Memphis Vs Gonzaga

UPDATE 12:30 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Arkansas opened -6.5 and remains -6.5 at WynnBet, with ticket count 2/1 on New Mexico State and money 2/1 on the Razorbacks. The total opened at 139.5 and is now 138.5, with 72% of bets on the Over/78% of money on the Under.

UPDATE 5 P.M. ET FRIDAY: New Mexico State was responsible for one of two No. 12 over No. 5 upsets in Thursday’s opening round. Now the WAC champions find themselves as sizable underdogs in a second-round matchup with No. 4 seed Arkansas.

The Aggies (27-6 SU, 18-12 ATS) took the court as a 6-point pup against UConn in Buffalo and led most of the way en route to a 70-63 victory. New Mexico State, which snapped a 12-game NCAA Tournament losing skid dating to 1993, has won and covered four in a row.

Arkansas got all it could handle from 13^th-seeded Vermont on Thursday but held on for a 75-71 victory, falling just shy as a 4.5-point chalk. The Razorbacks (26-8 SU, 20-13-1 ATS) have followed a six-game winning streak by alternating SU wins and losses in their last four outings. Also, the Hogs have failed to cash in back-to-back games after a 14-2-1 ATS romp.

New Mexico State has cashed in five straight contests as an underdog, while Arkansas is in ATS funks of 1-3-1 as a favorite overall and 1-5 as a chalk in the Tournament.

NMSU’s game against UConn barely crept Over the total, making the Over 8-1 in its last nine neutral-site outings, 4-0 in its past four March Madness contests, and 5-0 in its last five neutral-site contests. Arkansas has topped the total in seven consecutive games overall and five straight at neutral venues.

Arkansas opened as a 6.5-point favorite on PointsBet USA’s Saturday NCAA Tournament odds board and hasn’t moved yet. Underdog New Mexico State is the play with early bettors, as ticket count is 3/1 and money 5/1 on the Aggies. The total opened at 139.5 and has seen only a juice adjustment so far, to Under -120. The Over is seeing 63% of tickets, while 59% of cash is on the Under.

UPDATE 12:30 P.M. ET SATURDAY: The Zags have opened -11 (-105) at WynnBet, and dipped to -10 by late Friday night. Gonzaga is drawing 71% of spread money, but 80% of spread cash is on underdog Memphis. The total opened at 153.5 (Over -115) and is up to 154.5, with early ticket count 4/1 and practically all the early money on the Over.

UPDATE 5 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Gonzaga survived a bit of a scare in its opening-round game. Now the No. 1 overall seed will try to get past a ninth-seeded Memphis squad that’s on a roll.

The Bulldogs (27-3 SU, 14-13-3 ATS) found themselves tied with No. 16 seed Georgia State nearing the midpoint of the second half, then kicked it into gear and pulled away for a 93-72 victory. The nation’s highest scoring team outscored the Panthers 41-18 over the final 13 minutes and change, but still came up just short as a 22.5-point favorite.

Memphis had a completely opposite experience in its first-round game against No. 8 seed Boise State. The Tigers (22-10 SU, 16-15-1 ATS) opened a 38-19 halftime lead and remained in control for much of the second half before surviving a late Boise rally and extending for a 64-53 win as a 3.5-point chalk.

Gonzaga, which started last season 31-0 before losing to Baylor in the national championship game, enters Saturday having won 20 of its last 21 games. However, the Zags are just 10-8-3 ATS in that span, including 1-5-2 ATS in the last eight.

The Tigers, who are back in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2014, waltz into the Round of 32 on a 13-2 SU run. Additionally, Memphis is on ATS surges of 11-3 overall, 9-3 at neutral sites, and 16-5 as an underdog.

The Under is 3-1-1 in Memphis’ last five overall, 5-1 in its last six at neutral sites, and 7-3 in Gonzaga’s last 10 overall.

Gonzaga opened as a 10.5-point chalk early this morning at PointsBet USA, and the line remains there early this evening. Memphis is actually taking 61% of early spread bets and 85% of early spread dollars. The total is also stable, at 154.5, though 84% of bets/88% of dollars are on the Over.

UPDATE 6:30 P.M. ET FRIDAY: North Carolina and Baylor return to the court in Fort Worth, Texas, after posting the two biggest blowouts in Thursday’s opening round of games.

Baylor (27-6 SU, 17-14-2 ATS) began defense of its 2021 national championship by throttling No. 16 seed Norfolk State 85-49 as a 20.5-point chalk. The Bears, who were coming off an upset loss to Oklahoma in the Big 12 tournament quarterfinals, posted their highest point total since a 104-68 victory over Northwestern State back on Dec. 28.

North Carolina (25-9 SU, 17-16-1 ATS) followed Baylor to the court and hammered 11^th-seeded Marquette 95-63 as a 4-point favorite. The Tar Heels, who bowed out of the ACC tournament in the semifinals, opened a 53-25 halftime lead and cruised from there.

Baylor is 6-1 SU in its last seven games overall, but just 3-3-1 ATS. On the positive side, the Bears have now won seven consecutive NCAA Tournament games, cashing in the last six in a row (5-0 ATS as a favorite). Going back to 2019, the defending champs are 7-1 ATS in the Big Dance.

North Carolina is on a 7-1 SU/6-2 ATS roll. However, despite Thursday’s rout of Marquette, the Heels remain just 2-5 ATS in their last seven NCAA Tournament contests, and they’ve failed to cover in six straight as a Tourney underdog.

The Over is 15-6-1 in UNC’s last 22 games overall.

Baylor, which is 9-2 ATS this season when laying 7 points or less, is a 5.5-point chalk at PointsBet USA, with no movement yet off that opening number. Ticket count is almost dead even, but money is almost 2/1 on underdog North Carolina. The total also hasn’t moved, sticking at 149.5, despite an early 4/1 ticket count and 9/1 money count on the Under.

UPDATE 12:30 P.M. ET SATURDAY: UCLA hit WynnBet’s Saturday NCAA Tournament odds board at -2.5 (-115) and is now -3. However, ticket count is just shy of 2/1 on St. Mary’s, and money is nearing 2.5/1 on the Gaels. The total fell from 127 to 126, with tickets 5/1 on the Over and money 2.5/1 on the Under.

UPDATE 6:30 P.M. ET FRIDAY: One year after a stunning run from the First Four to the Final Four, UCLA nearly went one-and-done in this year’s NCAA Tournament.

The Bruins (26-7 SU, 17-15-1 ATS) trailed 13^th-seeded Akron most of the way Thursday night in Portland, Oregon, but rallied late and held on for a 57-53 victory. However, they never threatened to cover the 13.5-point spread, ending a 6-0 ATS run in the Tournament (all last year).

St. Mary’s was another blowout winner Thursday, breaking open a tight game late in the first half and rolling to an 82-53 victory over No. 11 seed/First Four-winner Indiana. The Gaels (26-7 SU/20-10-2 ATS) had no trouble covering as a 2.5-point favorite.

UCLA is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games but has failed to cash in its last two after a 7-2 ATS surge. That said, the Bruins are still 8-4 ATS in their last 12 neutral-site starts.

St. Mary’s is 14-3 SU/11-4-2 ATS since Jan. 13, with two of the three outright losses coming to West Coast Conference rival and No. 1 overall seed Gonzaga. However, the Gaels have failed to cover in their last four as a March Madness underdog.

For St. Mary’s, the Under is on runs of 51-18 as an underdog, 9-4 at neutral sites, and 7-2 in the Tournament. UCLA also has stayed low in seven of its last 10 Tournament contests, but the over is 5-2 in its last seven games overall.

UCLA has been at various iterations of -3 in PointsBet USA’s Saturday NCAA Tournament odds market. The Bruins are currently -3 (-105), with 57% of spread tickets on St. Mary’s, but 74% of cash on UCLA. The total is stuck on 126.5, though early tickets and money are running 4/1 on the Over.

UPDATE 12:30 P.M. ET SATURDAY: WynnBet moved Murray State from -8 to -9 in its Saturday NCAA Tournament odds market. However, resident Cinderella St. Peter’s is nabbing 67% of spread bets and 59% of spread cash. The total is steady at 130, with 70% of bets/72% of money on the Over.

UPDATE 6:30 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Some 48 hours after pulling off the biggest March Madness shocker to date, St. Peter’s will try to score another upset when it meets No. 7 seed Murray State in Indianapolis.

The 15^th-seeded Peacocks went off as an 18-point underdog against No. 2 seed Kentucky on Thursday night, went toe-to-toe with the Wildcats the entire way, and eventually prevailed 85-79 in overtime. In knocking out a team that was among the top three favorites in to win the NCAA title, St. Peter’s (20-11 SU, 20-9-1 ATS) picked up its first Tournament win in school history.

Like the Peacocks, Murray State (31-2 SU, 17-12-1 ATS) needed overtime to advance to the Round of 32. Facing No. 10 seed San Francisco, the Racers squandered a late lead in regulation but gutted out a 92-87 victory, cashing as a 1.5-point favorite. It was the school’s fourth NCAA Tournament victory ever, and second since 2019.

Both these teams are scalding hot. St. Peter’s is on an 8-0 SU/ATS tear and continues to sport one of the nation’s best point-spread records. The Peacocks are also on ATS tears of 6-0 as an underdog and 12-2 at neutral sites.

Meanwhile, Murray State now owns the nation’s longest SU winning streak at 21-0. The Racers snapped an 0-3 ATS slide with Thursday’s spread-cover, but they’re still just a middling 11-9-1 ATS during their winning streak.

The Under is 5-2 in St. Peter’s last seven overall and 27-13-2 in its last 42 at neutral venues. Murray State has stayed low in seven of its last 10 March Madness outings.

Murray State hit PointsBet USA’s board as an 8.5-point favorite early today and by lunchtime got to -9, where the line sits now. St. Peter’s is taking 57% of spread bets, while 72% of spread cash is on Murray State. The total hasn’t budged off 129.5, though early tickets are 5/1-plus and early money almost 4/1 on the Over.

UPDATE 12:30 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Tennessee is up to -6.5 from a -6 opener at WynnBet, where 56% of bets and 78% of dollars are on the Vols. The total is stable at 136.5, with 70% of bets/66% of money on the Over.

UPDATE 5 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Tennessee (27-7 SU, 21-13 ATS) crushed No. 14 seed Longwood 88-56 as an 18-point favorite Thursday, continuing the Volunteers’ hot streak from the SEC tournament. Tennessee has now covered four straight, including three in a row last week to claim the conference tournament crown.

Michigan (18-14 SU, 14-18 ATS) rallied from a 15-point first-half deficit to cover as a 1.5-point favorite in a 75-63 victory over No. 6 seed Colorado State on Thursday. Bouncing back from an opening loss at the Big Ten tournament, the Wolverines will now try to cover in back-to-back games for the first time since mid-January.

The Volunteers have won 16 of 18 SU, going 12-6 ATS. Meanwhile, Michigan has now alternated SU wins and losses in 11 consecutive games and alternated ATS wins and losses in its last 14. The Wolverines come into this one on an 8-1-1 spread-covering tear as an underdog at neutral sites.

Both teams topped the total in their opening-round games. The Over is now 20-12 in Michigan games this season (5-1 in the last six). Tennessee is 4-1 Over in its last five NCAA Tournament affairs.

Tennessee opened as a 6-point favorite at PointsBet USA, and the line has stayed there with 73% of tickets and 74% of money on the Volunteers. The total has moved from 133.5 to 135.5 with 77% of tickets and 72% of money on the Over.

UPDATE 5 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Kansas (29-6 SU, 18-16-1 ATS) pulled away from No. 16 seed Texas Southern in Thursday’s final game, covering as a 21.5-point favorite in an easy 83-56 victory. The Jayhawks have won six in a row and cashed in a season-high five straight.

Creighton (23-11 SU, 20-14 ATS) scored the final nine points of regulation to force overtime against No. 8-seed San Diego State, then pulled out a 72-69 victory as a 2.5-point underdog. The Bluejays trailed for almost the entire game against the Aztecs, who completed an 0-4 sweep for Mountain West teams in the NCAA Tournament.

During its 5-0 ATS surge, Kansas has cashed in four games as at neutral sites. Meanwhile, Creighton has now covered four straight and 10 of 12, and the Bluejays are also 20-8 ATS in their last 20 as an underdog. However, despite Thursday’s upset win, they’re still just 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 March Madness contests.

The Under is 5-2 in both teams’ last seven games, with Kansas staying low against Texas Southern and Creighton topping the total versus San Diego State.

Kansas has been one of the big early movers at PointsBet USA, going from the opener of -9.5 to -11.5 (-105), hitting -10 (-120) along the way. The Jayhawks are getting 72% of tickets and 84% of money. The total has moved from 137.5 to 139 and now 139.5, with 84% of tickets and 87% of money on the Over.

UPDATE 12:30 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Providence opened -3 in WynnBet’s Saturday NCAA Tournament odds market and initially backed up to -2.5 Friday night. However, the Friars jumped to -3 and then to -3.5 midmorning today. Ticket count is 2/1 and money 4/1 on Providence. The total is stable at 134.5, with 56% of tickets on the Over/77% of cash on the Under.

UPDATE 5 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Providence (26-5, 18-13 ATS) shrugged off its doubters Thursday, winning and covering as a 2.5-point favorite in a 66-57 victory over No. 13 seed and popular upset pick South Dakota State. With the victory, Providence snapped South Dakota’s 21-game winning streak, which had been the longest in the country.

The Friars, who won their first-ever Big East regular-season title by percentage points over Villanova, also earned their first NCAA Tournament victory since 2016. They had lost eight of nine March Madness games since reaching the Elite Eight in 1997.

Richmond (24-12, 18-18 ATS) provided the first upset of this Tournament, knocking off No. 5 seed Iowa 67-63 on Thursday as 9.5-point underdogs. The Spiders remain one of the hottest teams in the NCAA Tournament, having won five in a row — including four straight as an underdog — and seven of nine.

Richmond is making its first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2011, when it reached the Sweet 16 as a No. 12 seed before losing to No. 1 seed Kansas. (Is it fate? Richmond could meet No. 1 Kansas in the Sweet 16 this year.)

Providence has cashed in four of its last six games but remains just 1-5 ATS in its last six Tournament outings and 3-13 ATS in its last 16 at neutral sites. Richmond’s 4-0 ATS surge (all at neutral sites) follows a 2-7 ATS slide. Both teams stayed Under the total on Thursday. The Under is now 13-4-1 the Spiders’ last 18 overall and 5-1 in Providence’s last six at neutral venues.

Providence opened as a 3-point favorite at PointsBet USA, moved down to 2.5, back to 3 and now back to 2.5. Richmond is on 53% of tickets, but Providence is getting 56% of money. The total has been steady at 134.5, with 67% of tickets and 77% of money on the Under.