There’s no time to rest in the golf world, and we’re here to bring you the best PGA picks this week. Justin Carlucci brings you his model projections for the FedEx St. Jude Championship at TPC Southwind.
Top PGA Picks This Week: Model Predictions
In this section, we’ll break down the top PGA picks this week based on meta-model projections, taking countless variables into consideration.
Included in the table:
- Top 10 golfers based on tons of data: empasis on market odds/value, weekly criteria, course fit, history, dozens of important statistical categories, etc.
- Top 10 actual chance to win this week’s tournament, regardless of market odds
- Top 10 first round leader darts to throw
🏆 2025 ST. JUDE CHAMPIONSHIP
Complete Triple Systematic Analysis | TPC Southwind | Memphis, TN
📊 META-MODEL TOP 10
Four-Pillar Systematic Analysis with Market Value Integration
| RANK | PLAYER | META SCORE | VEGAS ODDS | ANALYSIS TYPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scottie Scheffler | 85/100 | +280 | 🔥 ELITE SYSTEMATIC |
| 2 | Aaron Rai | 80/100 | +3000 | 💎 ELITE FIT |
| 3 | Harris English | 79/100 | +4500 | 📈 COURSE HISTORY |
| 4 | Justin Thomas | 76/100 | +2500 | 🎯 PRECISION ELITE |
| 5 | Tommy Fleetwood | 75/100 | +2500 | 🏌️ BALL STRIKING |
| 6 | Daniel Berger | 75/100 | +5000 | ⚡ VENUE EDGE |
| 7 | Collin Morikawa | 74/100 | +3300 | 🔧 IRON PLAY |
| 8 | Hideki Matsuyama | 74/100 | +3200 | 🌸 DEFENDING CHAMP |
| 9 | Michael Kim | 72/100 | +11000 | 🌶️ JUST A SPRINKLE |
| 10 | Ryan Gerard | 71/100 | +8500 | 🎯 VALUE DART |
🎯 PURE WINNERS TOP 10
Raw talent assessment excluding odds
| RANK | PLAYER | WIN SCORE | MODEL ABILITY | STRONG FIELD | WIN PROFILE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scottie Scheffler | 100/100 | 40/40 | 25/25 | 👑 WORLD #1 |
| 2 | Xander Schauffele | 97/100 | 40/40 | 25/25 | 🏆 PROVEN CLOSER |
| 3 | Collin Morikawa | 92/100 | 40/40 | 25/25 | 🎯 ELITE IRON PLAY |
| 4 | Justin Thomas | 89/100 | 40/40 | 22/25 | 🔥 CLUTCH PERFORMER |
| 5 | Viktor Hovland | 87/100 | 35/40 | 22/25 | 🇳🇴 ELITE STRIKER |
| 6 | Hideki Matsuyama | 84/100 | 35/40 | 25/25 | 🌸 DEFENDING CHAMP |
| 7 | Patrick Cantlay | 82/100 | 35/40 | 22/25 | 🧠 STRATEGIC |
| 8 | Sam Burns | 79/100 | 35/40 | 22/25 | 🔥 MULTIPLE WINNER |
| 9 | Tommy Fleetwood | 79/100 | 35/40 | 22/25 | 🏌️ ELITE TALENT |
| 10 | Jordan Spieth | 76/100 | 30/40 | 25/25 | 🏆 MAJOR WINNER |
🚀 FIRST ROUND LEADER TOP 10
Thursday scoring data integration
| RANK | PLAYER | FRL SCORE | R1 RANK | MARKET ODDS | EXPLOSIVE FACTOR | FRL PROFILE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scottie Scheffler | 85/100 | #2 | +1000 | ELITE | 👑 CONVERGENCE |
| 2 | Harry Hall | 77/100 | #5 | +5000 | ELITE | 💎 GOLDMINE |
| 3 | Collin Morikawa | 73/100 | #23 | +3500 | HIGH | 🎯 PRECISION |
| 4 | Jake Knapp | 72/100 | #10 | +5000 | ELITE | 🚀 BOOM/BUST |
| 5 | Ryan Gerard | 72/100 | #9 | +6500 | ELITE | ⚡ ASSASSIN |
| 6 | Michael Kim | 69/100 | #28 | +7000 | MODERATE | 🌶️ VENUE MASTER |
| 7 | Xander Schauffele | 68/100 | #45 | +2500 | MODERATE | 🏆 ELITE MODEL |
| 8 | Viktor Hovland | 67/100 | #52 | +3500 | MODERATE | 🏌️ BALL STRIKING |
| 9 | Tommy Fleetwood | 66/100 | #48 | +3500 | MODERATE | 📈 VENUE EDGE |
| 10 | Harris English | 65/100 | #101 | +3700 | MODERATE | 📚 EXPERIENCE |
PGA Picks This Week – Top Golfers Analysis
Here’s some more on our PGA picks this week from the model.
SCOTTIE SCHEFFLER
- Meta-Model: #1 – This shouldn’t surprise anyone. Scheffler brings world-class talent and a perfect course fit. At +280, he’s not exactly a value play, but when you’ve got the best player in the world who also happens to rank #2 in Thursday scoring average, sometimes you just pay the freight and move on with your life.
- Pure Winners: #1 – Perfect systematic score here. The guy’s won 8 times this year and brings that insane pedigree that travels everywhere. When you’re evaluating pure tournament-winning ability without considering odds, there’s literally nobody better on the planet right now.
- FRL: #1 (85/100) – He grades out super well, even at +1000.
AARON RAI
- Meta-Model: #2 (80/100) – Rai gets the “Elite Fit” designation because his ball-striking profile matches TPC Southwind’s demands perfectly. At +3000 outright odds, we’re getting legitimate value on a guy whose precision game should thrive on narrow fairways and small greens.
- Pure Winners: Not Top 10 – Rai doesn’t bring that proven closing ability or elite model rating. He’s a system play based on course fit, not raw tournament-winning talent. This is exactly why we separate posisle picks into these three buckets.
- FRL: Not Top 10 – His Thursday scoring data doesn’t show the explosive early-round ability needed for FRL consideration. Rai’s more of a grind-it-out, four-round type of guy.
HARRIS ENGLISH
- Meta-Model: #3 (79/100) – English gets the “Course History” tag because his venue-specific data is solid. At +4500, we’re getting really nice value on a guy who is playing well.
- Pure Winners: Not Top 10 – English doesn’t bring elite model ability or proven closing power in strong fields. But he is playing really, really good golf….
- FRL: #10 (65/100) – This is where English’s experience shows up. Even though he ranks poorly in Thursday scoring average, his course familiarity creates a comfort level that can really help in rounds. 3/3 cuts here, including a solo 4th a few years ago. At +3700 FRL odds, you can do worse.
JUSTIN THOMAS
- Meta-Model: #4 (76/100) – JT gets the “Precision Elite” designation because his skill set matches venue demands perfectly. At +2500 odds, we’re getting reasonable value on proven ability meeting course fit.
- Pure Winners: #4 (89/100) – Proven closer with elite talent, even though he has been inconsistent the last couple of seasons
- FRL: Not Top 10 – JT’s Thursday scoring data isn’t anything to write home about, and that’s not a shock. He’s more of a four-round grinder
DANIEL BERGER
- Meta-Model: #6 (75/100) – Berger gets the “Venue Edge” tag because historical performance at similar precision tracks creates systematic advantages. At +5000 odds, we’re getting legitimate longshot value on course-specific skills.
- Pure Winners: Not Top 10 – I am disagreeing with the model here – 2x winner and two top-5 finishes in the last 5 years.
- FRL: Not Top 10 – Again, I am a little higher on Berger than the model. I have no problem sprinkling in a FRL bet on him.
MICHAEL KIM
- Meta-Model: #9 (72/100) – Kim gets the “Just A Sprinkle” treatment at +11000. Are you feeling froggy? While he hasn’t played here in years, he owns a T16 and a T18 in 2016 and 2018, respectively.
- Pure Winners: Not Top 10 – Yeah, I think we all understand he isn’t falling into this bucket.
- FRL: #6 (69/100) – His course-specific comfort level creates early-round advantages that the FRL market undervalues at +7000 odds. Why not this week?
