There’s no time to rest in the golf world, and we’re here to bring you the best PGA picks this week. Justin Carlucci brings you his model projections for the TOUR Championship at East Lake Golf Club.
Top PGA Picks This Week: Model Predictions
In this section, we’ll break down the top PGA picks this week based on meta-model projections, taking countless variables into consideration.
Included in the table:
- Top 10 golfers based on tons of data: emphasis on market odds/value, weekly criteria, course fit, history, dozens of important statistical categories, etc.
- Top 10 actual chance to win this week’s tournament, regardless of market odds
- Top 10 first round leader darts to throw
PGA Picks This Week – Top Golfers Analysis
Here’s some more on our PGA picks this week from the model:
META-MODEL TOP 3
1. Viktor Hovland (+3000) – Viktor checks every single systematic box for East Lake dominance. The guy has great history, current form, and his ball-striking profile is exactly what narrow fairways demand. But here’s the kicker – at +3000, you’re getting a former FedEx Cup champion at longshot odds. His iron play from 150-200 yards is tour-level elite, and that’s the money zone at East Lake.
2. Justin Thomas (+2500) – JT is a proven East Lake assassin getting disrespected by the market. His course history is awesome, and his ball-striking profile matches exactly what this venue rewards. He’s been inconsistent in 2025, but 25/1 is great value.
3. Collin Morikawa (+3000) – Here’s your classic East Lake archetype getting overlooked by the market. Morikawa is a pure iron player – exactly what wins on these narrow fairways with elevated greens. We know he’s a deadly striker, and at +3000, you’re getting a major champion who thrives on precision courses at serious value odds.
PURE WINNERS TOP 3
1. Rory McIlroy – When you’re looking for pure winners – guys who literally have the best chance to win regardless of odds – you start with the most complete players in the field – and Rory has typically been 1B to Scottie at 1A. Rory’s Masters breakthrough this year shows he’s arguably playing the best golf of his career, and his East Lake resume is absolutely ridiculous. The course rewards controlled aggression – exactly Rory’s wheelhouse.
2. Scottie Scheffler – From a pure talent perspective, Scottie is still the gold standard. His model metrics are perfect because he’s simply the most complete player in the world right now. Ball-striking, short game, putting, mental toughness – he’s elite in every category. The guy just doesn’t make mistakes, and that’s huge at a course where bogeys are costly.
3. Viktor Hovland – Making another appearance on the list – Viktor’s pure talent is undeniable – the iron play is elite, the course management is sophisticated, and his mental game at big events is proven. The model really likes him this week, and the odds are great.
FIRST ROUND LEADER HIGHLIGHTS
Check out our weekly first round leader article for more insight on Thursday golf betting!
