The Patriots are gearing up to take on the Buffalo Bills on Sunday, Oct 22. The game is slated for 1:00 ET and will be broadcast on CBS. Buffalo comes into this game as an 8.5-point favorite with the total set at 40. How will this matchup unfold? Let’s delve into the Patriots vs. Bills predictions and player props below.
Patriots vs. Bills Odds
- Spread: Bills -8.5
- Total 40
Game Info
- Date: Sunday, Oct 22
- Time: 1:00 ET
- Location: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
- TV: CBS
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Bills Betting Trends
- Over their last five games, the Bills have an over/under record of 2-3 and are 3-2 vs. the spread.
- In their last ten games away from home, the Bills have a straight-up record of 7-3 while going 5-5 vs the spread. The team’s offense averaged 25 points per game in these contests.
- Going back to their previous ten games as the favorite, Buffalo has an ATS mark of 5-5 while going 7-3 straight up.
Patriots Betting Trends
- In their last five games, the Patriots have an over/under record of 2-3 and are 0-5 vs. the spread.
- In their last three games at home, the Patriots have a straight-up record of 1-2 while going 1-2 vs the spread. The team’s offense averaged 11 points per game in these contests.
- Going back to their previous three games as the underdog, New England has an ATS mark of 0-3 while going 0-3 straight up.
Is A Road Victory Likely for the Favored Bills?
Coming into their game against the Patriots, the Bills are trying to improve on a 4-2 record. This mark has them at 2nd in the AFC-East and 5th in the AFC. The Bills currently hold a 3-3 record against the spread. Currently, their average scoring margin is +14.
In their most recent matchup, the Bills welcomed the Giants to their home turf. The game ended in a 14-9 win. The Bills secured the win but didn’t cover the spread against the Giants while being favored by 15.5. The over/under line for their most recent game against New York was 43.5. Finishing with a combined total of 23 points, the under hit in this matchup.
Against the Giants’ defense, Josh Allen led the way with 169 passing yards and a completion rate of 63%. On the ground, the Bills ran the ball 29 times for 128 yards. The team had 6 third-down conversions (50%).
Thus far, the Bills’ defense has given up an average of 323.8 yards per game and 14.8 points per contest (3rd). Going into this game, they’ve allowed a completion percentage of 67.2% and have surrendered four passing touchdowns. When it comes to run defense, they rank 25th in the NFL.
Can New England Lock in a Home Win?
Overall, the Patriots have put together a record of 1-5 and are in 4th place in the AFC East. This week will be their 4th game at home, and they have yet to pick up a win on their home turf. On the road, the Patriots are 1-2. The Patriots’ scoring margin thus far is currently at -13.3. This has contributed to an ATS record of 1-5.
The Patriots recently suffered a 21-17 defeat at the hands of the Raiders. In addition to their 4-point loss, the Patriots also suffered a setback in their ATS record. They were 3-point underdogs at the start of the game. The under hit in the Patriots’ most recent game, where the teams’ combined total was 38 points. The line prior to the game stood at 41.5.
On offense, the Patriots finished with 259 yards against the Raiders. When it came to third downs, the Patriots had a 50% conversion rate. Leading the ground game was Rhamondre Stevenson with 46 yards, and Mac Jones contributed 200 passing yards.
In terms of turnovers, the New England defense has three takeaways, which is 12th in the NFL. Overall, they are giving up 25.3 points per game and 306.7 yards.
Patriots vs. Bills Player Prop
Mac Jones’ passing yards prop vs. the Bills is currently 184.5.
When it comes to passing attempts among quarterbacks, Jones is currently positioned 11th. His season statistics include 1208 passing yards and a completion percentage of 64.2%. This week will be a challenge for Jones, and the Patriots’ offense line as Buffalo’s defense does a good job getting after the quarterback. I’m taking the under for Jones’ passing prop.
The Prop: Mac Jones Under 184.5 Passing Yards (-120)
Patriots vs. Bills Predictions
Buffalo initially opened as 7-point favorites on the road. The lines have shifted in their favor, now standing at -8.5.
This feels like too many points: on the road, in a divisional game. Yes, the Patriots have been brutal over the last month, but the Bills haven’t looked sharp in back-to-back games either. I believe that Bill Belichick’s crew could find some success running the football and keeping this one relatively close while covering the spread.
The Pick: Patriots +8.5 | -110 at Fanduel Sportsbook