NRFIs — betting on whether or not a run will score in the first inning — have become the darling of the baseball betting world this season. NRFI stands for No Runs First Inning (NRFI). The opposite, YRFI, stands for Yes Runs First Inning. These wagers are ideal for bettors who love wagers that settle quickly.
In this article, we’ll provide you with our top picks for NRFI bets for the day, based on our expert analysis and research. So, let’s look at today’s best NRFI bet and its rationale.
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Best NRFI Bets Today: Monday, June 30
Our analysts break down the best NRFI picks and YRFI plays for today’s slate.
St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates 1st Inning Over 0.5 Runs (-106)
This is an intriguing YRFI betting opportunity based on some recent trends. The Cardinals and Pirates will trot out Erick Fedde and Andrew Heaney, respectively, and both pitchers come in having experienced some serious trouble in recent starts.
Fedde still sports a respectable 4.11 ERA, but his WHIP has climbed to 1.36 after allowing seven earned runs, including three homers, over 3.2 innings in his most recent time on the mound against the Cubs. The right-hander also has a .287 xBA, .364 xwOBA and 5.24 xERA, further supporting the notion he’s been fortunate not to have experienced more trouble prior to that start. Additionally, he’s scuffled in the first inning, pitching to a 6.75 ERA, .262 BAA, .898 OPS and 11:10 K:BB.
Heaney has been in even poorer form recently, having allowed seven earned runs in back-to-back starts and also having surrendered three homers in his most recent trip to the mound. The veteran lefty has been good in the first inning (2.81 ERA, .230 BAA), but the Cardinals have a .298 average, .900 OPS and .385 wOBA against left-handed pitching on the road in June.
Pittsburgh is also rolling, having just swept the Mets at Citi Field over the weekend and compiling 30 runs in the process over the three-game series. Additionally, the Bucs went into the final game of that series Sunday with a .301 average, .783 OPS and .345 wOBA against righties at home in June, and that was before tormenting Frankie Montas, Dedniel Nunez and outfielder Travis Jankowski for 10 runs on 11 hits in their 12-1 win.
YRFI bets haven’t been particularly successful in the home/road splits that apply for each team Monday, but the aforementioned factors could certainly lead to at least one run coming across in the first.
Where to play: Cardinals at Pirates Over 0.5 Runs | FanDuel Sportsbook
Kansas City Royals at Seattle Mariners 1st Inning Under 0.5 Runs (-132)
With two talented right-handers in Michael Wacha and George Kirby on the hill for this series opener, the chances of an NRFI bet are solid.
From the standpoint of several metrics, Wacha is enjoying another solid season as his second Royals campaign unfolds, as he’s sporting a 3.33 ERA and 0.9 HR/9 across his first 16 starts. The right-hander has given up more than three earned runs only twice, including in just one road start.
Wacha is also yet to be scored upon in the first inning over 16 opening frames, a split in which he’s surrendered just a .211/.237/.246 slash line. The veteran is also facing a Mariners team whose current hitters he’s gotten the best of plenty in the past, limiting them to a .197 average and .265 OBP across 82 career encounters.
Kirby has largely straightened out his season after a rough first two starts, pitching to a 3.54 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 9.0 K/9 across 28 innings in his subsequent five trips to the mound. The 2019 first-round pick, who compiled 27 wins in the last two seasons, has given up four first-inning runs overall, but three of those came in one outing against the highly potent Cubs lineup at Wrigley.
NRFI bets are 22-18 in the Royals’ road games and 24-15 in Seattle’s home contests as well, furthering the case for a scoreless first.
Where to play: Royals at Mariners Under 0.5 Runs | FanDuel Sportsbook
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What Is NRFI Betting?
NRFI betting is placing a bet on two baseball teams to not score in the 1st inning. This includes both the top and bottom halves of the inning. So if the visiting ball club is held scoreless through the top of the 1st inning but the home team scores in the bottom, the NRFI is a losing wager. But if both teams are held scoreless through the first inning, the NRFI is a winning bet.
What Is YRFI Betting?
YRFI betting is the opposite of NRFI betting. YRFI stands for “Yes Run First Inning.”
This bet can literally be a winner on the first pitch. For example, if the visiting club’s leadoff hitter rips a homer, the YRFI is a winning bet.
But, of course, a homer isn’t required for a winning YRFI bet. As long as a run is scored in the 1st inning by either the home or away team, the bet is a winner.
Wondering if you can use DraftKings Sportsbook in your state? Check out our DraftKings Sportsbook States guide.
How Often Does NRFI Hit?
The success rate for No Run First Inning bets is contingent on many factors, primarily those in the strategy section.
For example, first-inning NRFI wagers are likelier to hit at LoanDepot Park than Coors Field because Coors Field is more homerun-friendly. Additionally, when aces oppose one another, it’s more likely for an NRFI bet to win than when a pair of struggling pitchers face top-shelf lineups.
But, of course, these factors are all weighed by sportsbooks when setting lines. So the odds are shorter for ‘No Runs First Inning’ when elite pitchers face each other. As a result, it pays to dig deeper and factor in all of the tips highlighted in the strategy section.
Where To Place NRFI Bets
The following sportsbooks have more than enough options to satisfy your NRFI bets needs. As outlined before, always shop around for the best price when it comes to NRFI bets.
On top of that, our team spent the time to find the best available bonus offers at each listed sportsbook. If you are new to any of these betting apps, be sure to use our exclusive links and promo codes to claim your free bets:
Top Sportsbooks For NRFI Bets
- FanDuel Sportsbook (click here for our full review)
- Caesars Sportsbook (click here for our full review)
- BetMGM (click here for our full review)
NRFI Betting Strategy Tips
There are several factors to consider for NRFI betting. The weather is one factor. For instance, a baseball carries farther in hot and humid weather, increasing the chances of a homer. Additionally, wind conditions can also impact the odds of a first inning run.
Take Park Factor Into Consideration
Ballpark factors are another integral nugget of info. FantasyPros has three-year park factors, and ESPN has same-season data gamblers can access. The odds of a run scoring in the first are the greatest in ballparks with high park factors for runs.
In addition, the odds of a round-tripper are the greatest at a homer-friendly park against a fly-ball-centric or homer-prone pitcher. Conversely, scoring a run in a pitcher-friendly park is more challenging.
Consider The Lineup
Lineup composition is a significant consideration, too. However, there are layers to this piece of info. For example, the greater the quality of hitters at the top of a lineup, the trickier it is for a pitcher to avoid surrendering a run in the first inning.
Look At Pitching Splits
The handedness of the hitters in the top slots in a lineup is essential to note. For example, is a lineup filled exclusively with righties in the top five spots and opposing a right-handed pitcher who dominates in same-handed matchups?
According to FanGraphs, in 2021, Corbin Burnes allowed the lowest wOBA (.215) to right-handed batters among qualified pitchers. Thus, righty-laden lineups would have struggled to get the better of Burnes. Conversely, Patrick Corbin coughed up the highest wOBA (.387) to righties, which would have made him an attractive pitcher to bet YRFI against even with a mediocre lineup that’s top-heavy with righties.
Look At Hitting Stats
You can find how each offense ranks by runs scored in the first inning at TeamRankings.com. This list shows you how often each team scores in the first inning. Looking at the last few seasons, the median is 28.79%.
This is a helpful list, because sometimes high-powered offenses struggle in the first inning. Consider this example from last year: The Giants rank fifth in runs per game at 4.80. So they are a good offense, right? Not when it comes to scoring in the first inning! The Giants only record a first inning run 22.73% of the time. That ranks 26th of 30 total teams.