NRFIs — betting on whether or not a run will score in the first inning — have become the darling of the baseball betting world this season. NRFI stands for No Runs First Inning (NRFI). The opposite, YRFI, stands for Yes Runs First Inning. These wagers are ideal for bettors who love wagers that settle quickly.
In this article, we’ll provide you with our top picks for NRFI bets for the day, based on our expert analysis and research. So, let’s look at today’s best NRFI bet and its rationale.
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Best NRFI Bets Today: Wednesday, May 28
Our analysts break down the best NRFI pick from today’s slate.
Cincinnati Reds at Kansas City Royals 1st Inning Under 0.5 runs (-140)
Multiple aspects of this interleague matchup make it a solid environment for an NRFI bet Wednesday.
We’ll begin, as customary, with the starting pitching matchup, which sees the surging Hunter Greene tangling with precocious left-hander Noah Cameron, who’s looked like a seasoned veteran over his first three big-league starts.
Greene is naturally a much more proven commodity, and he checks in with a 4-2 record, 2.54 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 11.4 K/9 and tiny 1.8 BB/9 while terrorizing hitters with a fastball that averages a blistering 99.4 mph. Greene’s .196 xBA, .272 xwOBA and 2.71 xERA all corroborate that he’s every bit as dominant as his surface numbers indicate, and that he could well be on his way to a career-best season.
Greene has unsurprisingly largely thrived in the first inning, posting a 2.00 ERA and .100 BAA while recording a 10:3 K:BB. He’s also facing a Royals team that has the second-lowest wOBA in the majors against righties at home (.290), along with a -14.1 wRAA. Kansas City is also averaging just 0.37 runs per first inning per home game, and NRFI bets are an MLB-best 38-18 in Royals games, including 20-8 in their home contests.
Cameron has opened his big-league career with a 1-1 record, 0.93 ERA and 0.67 WHIP across his first three starts. The young southpaw has gone at least 6.1 innings in each of his first three outings and surrendered no more than one earned run in any of them. Following a April 30 MLB debut on the road against the Rays where some jitters led to five walks, he’s settled down to forge an 11:1 K:BB over his subsequent pair of trips to the mound.
Cameron has yet to allow so much as a hit in the first inning as well, and although he’s highly unlikely to continue enjoying smooth sailing to the degree he’s had so far over the long term, Wednesday may not be the game where he gets a splash of cold water.
Cincinnati has been abysmal against lefties on the road throughout May, posting a 31.5% strikeout rate, .164/.218/.241 slash line, .204 wOBA and MLB-worst -10.7 wRAA in that split. Then, NRFI bets are 16-12 in the Reds’ road games as well, furthering the case for a scoreless first inning.
Where to play: Reds at Royals 1st Inning Under 0.5 Runs | FanDuel Sportsbook
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What Is NRFI Betting?
NRFI betting is placing a bet on two baseball teams to not score in the 1st inning. This includes both the top and bottom halves of the inning. So if the visiting ball club is held scoreless through the top of the 1st inning but the home team scores in the bottom, the NRFI is a losing wager. But if both teams are held scoreless through the first inning, the NRFI is a winning bet.
What Is YRFI Betting?
YRFI betting is the opposite of NRFI betting. YRFI stands for “Yes Run First Inning.”
This bet can literally be a winner on the first pitch. For example, if the visiting club’s leadoff hitter rips a homer, the YRFI is a winning bet.
But, of course, a homer isn’t required for a winning YRFI bet. As long as a run is scored in the 1st inning by either the home or away team, the bet is a winner.
Wondering if you can use DraftKings Sportsbook in your state? Check out our DraftKings Sportsbook States guide.
How Often Does NRFI Hit?
The success rate for No Run First Inning bets is contingent on many factors, primarily those in the strategy section.
For example, first-inning NRFI wagers are likelier to hit at LoanDepot park than Coors Field because Coors field is more homerun friendly. Additionally, when aces oppose one another, it’s more likely for an NRFI bet to win than when a pair of struggling pitchers face top-shelf lineups.
But, of course, these factors are all weighed by sportsbooks when setting lines. So the odds are shorter for ‘No Runs First Inning’ when elite pitchers face each other. As a result, it pays to dig deeper and factor in all of the tips highlighted in the strategy section.
Where To Place NRFI Bets
The following sportsbooks have more than enough options to satisfy your NRFI bets needs. As outlined before, always shop around for the best price when it comes to NRFI bets.
On top of that, our team spent the time to find the best available bonus offers at each listed sportsbook. If you are new to any of these betting apps, be sure to use our exclusive links and promo codes to claim your free bets:
Top Sportsbooks For NRFI Bets
- FanDuel Sportsbook (click here for our full review)
- Caesars Sportsbook (click here for our full review)
- BetMGM (click here for our full review)
NRFI Betting Strategy Tips
There are several factors to consider for NRFI betting. The weather is one factor. For instance, a baseball carries farther in hot and humid weather, increasing the chances of a homer. Additionally, wind conditions can also impact the odds of a first inning run.
Take Park Factor Into Consideration
Ballpark factors are another integral nugget of info. FantasyPros has three-year park factors, and ESPN has same-season data gamblers can access. The odds of a run scoring in the first are the greatest in ballparks with high park factors for runs.
In addition, the odds of a round-tripper are the greatest at a homer-friendly park against a fly-ball-centric or homer-prone pitcher. Conversely, scoring a run in a pitcher-friendly park is more challenging.
Consider The Lineup
Lineup composition is a significant consideration, too. However, there are layers to this piece of info. For example, the greater the quality of hitters at the top of a lineup, the trickier it is for a pitcher to avoid surrendering a run in the first inning.
Look At Pitching Splits
The handedness of the hitters in the top slots in a lineup is essential to note. For example, is a lineup filled exclusively with righties in the top five spots and opposing a right-handed pitcher who dominates in same-handed matchups?
According to FanGraphs, in 2021, Corbin Burnes allowed the lowest wOBA (.215) to right-handed batters among qualified pitchers. Thus, righty-laden lineups would have struggled to get the better of Burnes. Conversely, Patrick Corbin coughed up the highest wOBA (.387) to righties, which would have made him an attractive pitcher to bet YRFI against even with a mediocre lineup that’s top-heavy with righties.
Look At Hitting Stats
You can find how each offense ranks by runs scored in the first inning at TeamRankings.com. This list shows you how often each team scores in the first inning. Looking at the last few seasons, the median is 28.79%.
This is a helpful list, because sometimes high-powered offenses struggle in the first inning. Consider this example from last year: The Giants rank fifth in runs per game at 4.80. So they are a good offense, right? Not when it comes to scoring in the first inning! The Giants only record a first inning run 22.73% of the time. That ranks 26th of 30 total teams.