NRFIs — betting on whether or not a run will score in the first inning — have become the darling of the baseball betting world this season. NRFI stands for No Runs First Inning (NRFI). The opposite, YRFI, stands for Yes Runs First Inning. These NRFI bets and props are ideal for bettors who love wagers that settle quickly.
In this article, we’ll provide you with our top picks for NRFI bets and plays for the day, based on our expert analysis and research. So, let’s look at today’s best NRFI bets and the rationale.
Best DFS Apps in All States
Best NRFI Bets Today: Wednesday, September 17
Our analysts break down the best NRFI bets, props and YRFI picks for today’s slate.
San Diego Padres at New York Mets 1st Inning Under 0.5 runs
With a pair of capable veterans in Nick Pivetta and David Peterson on the hill, this sets up as a solid NRFI scenario.
Pivetta has a career-high 13 wins and has allowed two earned runs or fewer in six straight starts. That includes a trio of road outings, including one at Coors Field. The veteran right-hander also has 41 strikeouts over 36.2 innings in that span, and his season-long first-inning work includes a 2.48 ERA and .218 BAA.
Pivetta has had trouble with several current Mets hitters, but NRFI bets are 40-36 at Citi Field this season.
Peterson has had a couple of rough outings in the second half, but he still carries a solid 3.77 ERA. He also has a 5-1 record and 0.5 HR/9 at home, and a 2.25 ERA and .178 BAA in 28 first innings.
Peterson has also consistently frustrated current Padres hitters, holding them to a collective .222/.314/.311 slash line in 51 career plate appearances. San Diego also has a 26.2% strikeout rate against lefties on the road over the last month, and NRFI bets are 41-35 in the Friars’ road games as well.
What to play: Padres at Mets Under 0.5 Runs
Seattle Mariners at Kansas City Royals 1st Inning Over 0.5 runs
Bryce Miller and Cole Ragans have seen better days than their respective 2025 seasons have brought, and with the two on the hill in this late-season matchup, there would appear to be favorable conditions for a YRFI bet.
Miller has a 5.59 ERA and 1.7 HR/9 for the season, and he owns a 6.80 ERA and 2.6 HR/9 in the 41 innings covering his last eight starts. The right-hander also has a .286 xBA, .361 xwOBA and 49.1% hard-hit rate surrendered, and Miller also has conceded a .288 average and .812 OPS with runners in scoring position.
Miller has actually been effective in the first inning despite his overall trouble, but current Royals hitters own a collective .278 average and .350 OBP against him in 40 career encounters. Additionally, Kansas City has a .769 OPS and .331 wOBA versus righties at home in the last month.
Ragans will be coming off the 60-day injured list to start Wednesday’s game, and he’d pitched to a 9.00 ERA and 1.69 WHIP across the 13 innings covering the last three starts he made before going on the IL.
Ragans has elite swing-and-miss stuff, but he’s still surrendered a .289 average with runners in scoring position, as well as a .256 average and .326 OBP in the first inning. The Mariners also have a .263 average and .736 OPS against lefties on the road in the last month.
Additionally, YRFI bets are 45-31 in Seattle’s road games, adding to the case for at least one first-inning run.
Wht to play: Mariners at Royals Over 0.5 Runs
Looking for MLB player props and pick’ems in states that don’t have legal sports betting? Check out our MLB DFS sites guide.
NRFIs Are Live at Underdog Fantasy!
Underdog Fantasy is available in 40+ states, regardless of whether that state has legalized sports betting or not.
They also have a smooth app with plenty of player options across numerous sports.
That includes NRFI picks — as you can select NRFIs by game or a single pitcher.
If you are new, sign up using promo code PROPS to receive up to a 50% deposit match up to a $1000 maximum bonus.
Simply click the banner below and the promo code will populate!
What Is NRFI Betting?
NRFI betting is placing a bet on two baseball teams to not score in the 1st inning. This includes both the top and bottom halves of the inning. So if the visiting ball club is held scoreless through the top of the 1st inning but the home team scores in the bottom, the NRFI is a losing wager. But if both teams are held scoreless through the first inning, the NRFI is a winning bet.
What Is YRFI Betting?
YRFI betting is the opposite of NRFI betting. YRFI stands for “Yes Run First Inning.”
This bet can literally be a winner on the first pitch. For example, if the visiting club’s leadoff hitter rips a homer, the YRFI is a winning bet.
But, of course, a homer isn’t required for a winning YRFI bet. As long as a run is scored in the 1st inning by either the home or away team, the bet is a winner.
How Often Does NRFI Hit?
The success rate for No Run First Inning bets is contingent on many factors, primarily those in the strategy section.
For example, first-inning NRFI wagers are likelier to hit at LoanDepot Park than Coors Field because Coors Field is more homerun-friendly. Additionally, when aces oppose one another, it’s more likely for an NRFI bet to win than when a pair of struggling pitchers face top-shelf lineups.
But, of course, these factors are all weighed by sportsbooks when setting lines. So the odds are shorter for ‘No Runs First Inning’ when elite pitchers face each other. As a result, it pays to dig deeper and factor in all of the tips highlighted in the strategy section.
Where To Place NRFI Bets
The following sportsbooks have more than enough options to satisfy your NRFI bets needs. As outlined before, always shop around for the best price when it comes to NRFI bets.
On top of that, our team spent the time to find the best available bonus offers at each listed sportsbook. If you are new to any of these betting apps, be sure to use our exclusive links and promo codes to claim your free bets:
Top Sportsbooks For NRFI Bets
- FanDuel Sportsbook (click here for our full review)
- Caesars Sportsbook (click here for our full review)
- BetMGM Sportsbook (click here for our full review)
NRFI Betting Strategy Tips
There are several factors to consider for NRFI betting. The weather is one factor. For instance, a baseball carries farther in hot and humid weather, increasing the chances of a homer. Additionally, wind conditions can also impact the odds of a first inning run.
Take Park Factor Into Consideration
Ballpark factors are another integral nugget of info. FantasyPros has three-year park factors, and ESPN has same-season data gamblers can access. The odds of a run scoring in the first are the greatest in ballparks with high park factors for runs.
In addition, the odds of a round-tripper are the greatest at a homer-friendly park against a fly-ball-centric or homer-prone pitcher. Conversely, scoring a run in a pitcher-friendly park is more challenging.
Consider The Lineup
Lineup composition is a significant consideration, too. However, there are layers to this piece of info. For example, the greater the quality of hitters at the top of a lineup, the trickier it is for a pitcher to avoid surrendering a run in the first inning.
Look At Pitching Splits
The handedness of the hitters in the top slots in a lineup is essential to note. For example, is a lineup filled exclusively with righties in the top five spots and opposing a right-handed pitcher who dominates in same-handed matchups?
According to FanGraphs, in 2021, Corbin Burnes allowed the lowest wOBA (.215) to right-handed batters among qualified pitchers. Thus, righty-laden lineups would have struggled to get the better of Burnes. Conversely, Patrick Corbin coughed up the highest wOBA (.387) to righties, which would have made him an attractive pitcher to bet YRFI against even with a mediocre lineup that’s top-heavy with righties.
Look At Hitting Stats
You can find how each offense ranks by runs scored in the first inning at TeamRankings.com. This list shows you how often each team scores in the first inning. Looking at the last few seasons, the median is 28.79%.
This is a helpful list, because sometimes high-powered offenses struggle in the first inning. Consider this example from last year: The Giants rank fifth in runs per game at 4.80. So they are a good offense, right? Not when it comes to scoring in the first inning! The Giants only record a first inning run 22.73% of the time. That ranks 26th of 30 total teams.
Featured Image Credit: Imagn
