NRFIs — betting on whether or not a run will score in the first inning — have become the darling of the baseball betting world this season. NRFI stands for No Runs First Inning (NRFI). The opposite, YRFI, stands for Yes Runs First Inning. These wagers are ideal for bettors who love wagers that settle quickly.
In this article, we’ll provide you with our top picks for NRFI bets for the day, based on our expert analysis and research. So, let’s look at today’s best NRFI bet and its rationale.
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Best NRFI Bets Today: Thursday, Mar. 27
Our analysts break down the best NRFI pick from today’s slate.
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Pittsburgh Pirates at Miami Marlins 1st Inning Under 0.5 Runs (-160)
Paul Skenes and Sandy Alcantara are toeing the slab for a potential pitcher’s duel. According to Caesars Sportsbook, the game’s total is justifiably a pitcher-friendly 6.5 runs.
According to FanGraphs, in 23 starts spanning 133.0 innings last season, Skenes had a 1.96 ERA, 2.53 xERA, 2.54 xFIP, 2.71 SIERA, 0.95 WHIP, 6.2 BB%, 33.1 K%, 13.1 SwStr%, 29.4 CSW%, 110 Stuff+, 110 Location+, and 115 Pitching+. He was also a nightmare for hitters the first time through the order, tallying a 1.37 ERA and holding 204 batters to a .212 batting average, .265 OBP, .291 SLG, and .249 wOBA. Additionally, according to Baseball Reference, Skenes had a 1.96 ERA and allowed just five runs, a .220 batting average, .264 OBP, and .354 SLG in the first inning last season.
Alcantara missed the entire 2024 season while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. Fortunately, he was lights out in spring training. In five spring training starts spanning 12.1 innings this year, Alcantara had a 0.00 ERA, 2.86 FIP, 4.30 xFIP, 0.97 WHIP, 6.7 BB%, 22.2 K%, and 13.2 SwStr%. He even reached back and dialed his heater up to 100 MPH.
Alcantara didn’t have a banner year by his standards when he was last healthy in 2023. Still, he had a 2.82 ERA and allowed 22 runs (19 earned) the first time through the order in 2023. That year, Alcantara had a 3.54 ERA and allowed 11 runs in the first inning in 28 starts. In 138 career starts, Alcantara has a 2.87 ERA and allowed just a .221 batting average, .294 OBP, and .375 SLG.
Skenes and Alcantara are challenging matchups for offenses and come out of the gates well. Finally, the Marlins have an unserious top of the order, and the Pirates don’t have a murderer’s row at the top of their lineup. As a result, the Pirates and Marlins should keep each other off the scoreboard in the first inning.
Where to play: Pirates at Marlins 1st Inning Under 0.5 Runs | Caesars Sportsbook
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What Is NRFI Betting?
NRFI betting is placing a bet on two baseball teams to not score in the 1st inning. This includes both the top and bottom halves of the inning. So if the visiting ball club is held scoreless through the top of the 1st inning but the home team scores in the bottom, the NRFI is a losing wager. But if both teams are held scoreless through the first inning, the NRFI is a winning bet.
What Is YRFI Betting?
YRFI betting is the opposite of NRFI betting. YRFI stands for “Yes Run First Inning.”
This bet can literally be a winner on the first pitch. For example, if the visiting club’s leadoff hitter rips a homer, the YRFI is a winning bet.
But, of course, a homer isn’t required for a winning YRFI bet. As long as a run is scored in the 1st inning by either the home or away team, the bet is a winner.
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How Often Does NRFI Hit?
The success rate for No Run First Inning bets is contingent on many factors, primarily those in the strategy section.
For example, first-inning NRFI wagers are likelier to hit at LoanDepot park than Coors Field because Coors field is more homerun friendly. Additionally, when aces oppose one another, it’s more likely for an NRFI bet to win than when a pair of struggling pitchers face top-shelf lineups.
But, of course, these factors are all weighed by sportsbooks when setting lines. So the odds are shorter for ‘No Runs First Inning’ when elite pitchers face each other. As a result, it pays to dig deeper and factor in all of the tips highlighted in the strategy section.
Where To Place NRFI Bets
The following sportsbooks have more than enough options to satisfy your NRFI bets needs. As outlined before, always shop around for the best price when it comes to NRFI bets.
On top of that, our team spent the time to find the best available bonus offers at each listed sportsbook. If you are new to any of these betting apps, be sure to use our exclusive links and promo codes to claim your free bets:
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Top Sportsbooks For NRFI Bets
- FanDuel Sportsbook (click here for our full review)
- Caesars Sportsbook (click here for our full review)
- BetMGM (click here for our full review)
NRFI Betting Strategy Tips
There are several factors to consider for NRFI betting. The weather is one factor. For instance, a baseball carries farther in hot and humid weather, increasing the chances of a homer. Additionally, wind conditions can also impact the odds of a first inning run.
Take Park Factor Into Consideration
Ballpark factors are another integral nugget of info. FantasyPros has three-year park factors, and ESPN has same-season data gamblers can access. The odds of a run scoring in the first are the greatest in ballparks with high park factors for runs.
In addition, the odds of a round-tripper are the greatest at a homer-friendly park against a fly-ball-centric or homer-prone pitcher. Conversely, scoring a run in a pitcher-friendly park is more challenging.
Consider The Lineup
Lineup composition is a significant consideration, too. However, there are layers to this piece of info. For example, the greater the quality of hitters at the top of a lineup, the trickier it is for a pitcher to avoid surrendering a run in the first inning.
Look At Pitching Splits
The handedness of the hitters in the top slots in a lineup is essential to note. For example, is a lineup filled exclusively with righties in the top five spots and opposing a right-handed pitcher who dominates in same-handed matchups?
According to FanGraphs, in 2021, Corbin Burnes allowed the lowest wOBA (.215) to right-handed batters among qualified pitchers. Thus, righty-laden lineups would have struggled to get the better of Burnes. Conversely, Patrick Corbin coughed up the highest wOBA (.387) to righties, which would have made him an attractive pitcher to bet YRFI against even with a mediocre lineup that’s top-heavy with righties.
Look At Hitting Stats
You can find how each offense ranks by runs scored in the first inning at TeamRankings.com. This list shows you how often each team scores in the first inning. Looking at the last few seasons, the median is 28.79%.
This is a helpful list, because sometimes high-powered offenses struggle in the first inning. Consider this example from last year: The Giants rank fifth in runs per game at 4.80. So they are a good offense, right? Not when it comes to scoring in the first inning! The Giants only record a first inning run 22.73% of the time. That ranks 26th of 30 total teams.