Looking for NLDS Game 5 predictions? You’re in the right place for everything you need to know about the one final game between the Cubs vs Brewers.
The Chicago Cubs and Milwaukee Brewers square off Saturday night at American Family Field, with everything on the line – one last chance to face the Dodgers in the NLCS.
Editor’s Note: Check out our ALDS Game 5 Preview!
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NLDS Game 5 Predictions: Cubs vs Brewers
It’s been two completely different series, depending on which ballpark you’re watching from.
Milwaukee opened this thing by absolutely destroying the Cubs at home. I’m talking 9-3 and 7-3 beatdowns that had everyone penciling the Brewers into the next round. The offense was scorching the Earth. Jackson Chourio went 3-for-3 with 3 RBIs in Game 1, and Matthew Boyd couldn’t even escape the first inning before surrendering six runs.
The Brewers’ 97-win regular season – best record in franchise history, by the way – looked every bit as dominant as advertised. Then the series shifted to Wrigley Field, and everything flipped upside down.
The Cubs won Games 3 and 4 by a combined score of 10-3, riding the most electric home crowd Craig Counsell claims he’s ever witnessed. Brewers manager Pat Murphy admitted after Game 4 that “the crowd affected the game,” which is manager-speak for “holy hell, we couldn’t hear ourselves think out there.”
Michael Busch became the first player in MLB history to hit leadoff homers in back-to-back postseason games. Ian Happ, who’d been hitting a pathetic .095 through three games, launched a three-run bomb in Game 4’s first inning that set the tone for a 6-0 Cubs victory.
Bottom line? Home teams are a perfect 4-0 in this series. This makes Saturday night’s venue in Milwaukee extremely relevant for your betting card.
NLDS Game 5 Probable Pitchers
Neither team has officially announced its Game 5 starter (as of Friday), but here’s where it gets interesting.
It could very well be Shota Imanaga on the mound for Chicago.
The left-hander went 9-8 with a 3.73 ERA during the regular season, but his postseason has been rough. Real rough.
Imanaga lasted just 2.2 innings in Game 2 at American Family Field, surrendering four runs on five hits, including two home runs. Milwaukee’s lineup now has a ridiculous .802 OPS against the 5’10” lefty across 95 at-bats.
Imanaga has been giving up homers at an alarming rate down the stretch. He allowed 12 long balls in his final six regular-season starts (34.2 innings) and has already given up three in two playoff appearances.
The Cubs could also go with a bullpen game, but after needing their relievers to cover significant innings in Games 3 and 4, that feels like a desperate move.
Chicago’s offense has been too inconsistent to trust a parade of relievers in a winner-take-all game against Milwaukee’s patient hitters.
Milwaukee used Freddy Peralta on short rest in Game 4, meaning their ace is unavailable. Quinn Priester and Jose Quintana already absorbed Game 3 duties. The reality is this: the Brewers are going with a bullpen game, and honestly? That might be their best option.
Aaron Ashby, who opened Game 2, has been outstanding when used strategically – 2.16 ERA in 66.2 regular-season innings with 76 strikeouts.
Behind him, Milwaukee has Trevor Megill, Abner Uribe, and the rest of a bullpen that’s been mostly dominant in this series.
Will the Cubs or Brewers Win?
The Cubs have scored an absurd 77% of their runs in first innings across this series. Busch’s leadoff bombs. Happ’s three-run blast.
Pete Crow-Armstrong’s two-run single in Game 3. Chicago has been absolutely electric right out of the gate, jumping on Milwaukee starters before they can settle in.
But here’s what keeps me coming back to Milwaukee: after those first innings, the Cubs’ offense has been borderline nonexistent.
They’re hitting terribly with runners in scoring position in this series. Ian Happ was 1-for-11 before his Game 4 explosion. Matt Shaw is 0-for-7. Kyle Tucker’s been solid, but he can’t do it alone.
At some point, you’ve got to manufacture runs in the middle innings, and Chicago hasn’t shown it can do that consistently against Milwaukee’s arms.
In a Game 5 where the Brewers can strategically deploy their best relievers, that first-inning magic might not be enough.
Look, I get the counterargument for Chicago. They’ve got momentum. Boyd’s redemption arc in Game 4 was beautiful – 4.2 scoreless innings after his Game 1 disaster.
The Wrigley crowd gave them life. Counsell knows this Brewers team inside and out from his time managing them.
NLDS Game 5 Picks: Cubs vs Brewers
I’m expecting an awesome game, but I’m leaning toward Milwaukee.
The home-field advantage has been perfect in this series. The bullpen depth allows them to go matchup-by-matchup against a Cubs lineup that struggles after the first inning. Imanaga’s inability to keep the ball in the park. The Brewers’ patient approach forces pitchers to throw strikes.
Chicago’s had a magical run forcing this Game 5, but sometimes talent and roster construction just win out.
The Brewers are the better team with the better pitching situation. They’ve been waiting since their Game 2 victory to clinch this series. Now they get to do it at home in front of a crowd that’s been desperate to see playoff success.
Pick: Brewers Moneyline
