NFL Wild Card Odds: Two-Way Action On Cardinals Vs Rams

UPDATE 11 A.M. ET MONDAY: Los Angeles was initially installed as a 3.5-point favorite at BetMGM, and the line was still at Rams -3.5 early Monday. Bettors are leaning slightly toward the Cardinals, as 52% of tickets and 53% of money is on the visitor. The total opened at 50.5 and is down to 49.5, with 67% of the tickets/68% of the cash on the Over.

UPDATE 10 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Los Angeles opened -4.5 at WynnBet and by Monday dipped to -4, where the line remained the rest of the week. Underdog Arizona is actually taking a modest majority of point-spread tickets and money, at 55% and 54%, respectively. The total inched from 50.5 to 50 Tuesday and hasn’t budged since, with 65% of tickets on the Over/73% of money on the Under.

UPDATE 8 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Los Angeles opened at -4.5 in Caesars’ NFL Wild Card odds market, dipped to -4 Monday and stuck there all week. Ticket count is almost dead even, at 51% on the Rams, while the Cardinals are nabbing 54% of money.

“Both teams are coming off losses at the end of the season, so a lot of questions on both sides,” Caesars assistant director of trading Adam Pullen said. “You’d think good two-way action, with the spread being this tight and these teams meeting twice in the regular season. I don’t think it’ll be as close when this kicks off Monday. More money is going to be on the Rams eventually. The Rams are viewed as just a better team than the Cardinals and they’re the favorite here, and that should generate a lot of public action.”

The total is down to 49 from a 50.5 opener at Caesars, primarily due to a $110,000 bet on Under 50.5.

UPDATE 8:30 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: The Rams hit DraftKings’ NFL Wild Card odds market as 4-point favorites and initially rose to -4.5 early Monday. But by mid-Tuesday morning, Los Angeles was down to -3.5 (-115), where it remains tonight. Ticket count is practically split 50/50, while the Cardinals are grabbing a modest majority 53% of money. The total initially ticked up from 50 to 50.5, then dipped to 49, where it’s been stable since early this morning. Contrary to the move, the Over is seeing 72% of tickets/73% of money.

UPDATE 1:30 A.M. ET MONDAY: This Monday night game wraps up Super Wild Card Weekend, and The SuperBook pegged Los Angeles a 5-point favorite. The first move was toward road underdog Arizona, as the Rams shortened to -4.5. The total was stable.

Rex Beyers, risk manager at The SuperBook, said his risk-room peers don’t think too highly of Arizona — which closed with a 1-4 SU/ATS thud — but he doesn’t share that dislike.

“The Cardinals didn’t show up today, but they went to Dallas [in Week 17] and put up a good result. Would I be surprised to see the Cardinals win? Not at all,” Beyers said. “The Rams were just in a 70-minute battle today and got punched in the mouth, whereas Seattle was not nearly as physical on Arizona.”

These NFC West foes split their two meetings this season. Arizona rolled 37-20 as a 4-point road underdog in Week 4, while the Rams returned the favor in Week 13, prevailing 30-23 as a 3-point road pup.

Including their early-season upset victory in Los Angeles, the Cardinals went an NFL-best 8-1 SU/ATS on the road. Oddly, their only loss was to the Lions in Detroit in Week 14. Arizona was also 6-0 ATS as an underdog this season.

UPDATE 10:15 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Apparently, neither of these teams wanted to win the NFC West on their own. Los Angeles (12-5 SU, 8-9 ATS) was in first place entering Week 18 and just needed to beat visiting San Francisco. The Rams stormed out to a 17-0 lead, then gave it all back and ultimately lost 27-24 in overtime as 3.5-point faves.

L.A.’s setback opened the door for Arizona, but the Cards couldn’t walk through it. Arizona (11-6 SU,10-7 ATS) came out on the wrong end of a shootout with Seattle, falling 38-30 as a 5.5-point home chalk.

The Rams opened as 4-point favorites against their division rivals, and that line was stable tonight on DraftKings’ Wild Card odds board. The total was also stable.

Steelers at Chiefs

Opening line: Chiefs -11.5, Over/Under 46.5

UPDATE 5:30 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Less than three hours before kickoff, the Chiefs remain 12.5-point favorites at TwinSpires, while they’ve risen to -13 elsewhere. Kansas City opened -13 and has spent pretty much all week at -12.5. Ticket count is two-way, with 55% on K.C., but money is much more defined, at 76% on the Chiefs.

“A lot of parlays coming down to Dallas -3 and K.C. -12.5. We’ll need one of these ‘dogs to cover,” TwinSpires trading analyst Zachary Lucas said.

The total went from 46.5 to 46 and is now up to 47, with 59% of tickets/62% of money on the Over.

UPDATE 1 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Midmorning today, the Chiefs crept up to -13, after opening and spending much of the week at -12.5. Kansas City is taking 54% of spread tickets and 64% of spread dollars. The total opened at 46.5, bottomed out at 45.5 a couple times and this morning climbed back to the opener. The Over is netting 65% of tickets/59% of cash.

UPDATE 10 P.M. ET SATURDAY: WynnBet pegged Kansas City as 13-point chalk at -105 to open, then spent much of the week at -12.5, where the number sits tonight. Ticket count is almost dead even, with a slight nod to the Chiefs, and K.C. is bagging 61% of money. The total opened at 46.5 and is now 46, with 61% of bets on the Over/59% of cash on the Under.

UPDATE 8 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Kansas City is painted to -12.5 at Caesars, sticking there all week long. It’s two-way action, with 53% of spread tickets on the big underdog Steelers, and 54% of cash on the hefty favorite Chiefs. The total has spent most of the week at 46.5, after opening at 47. Caesars books took a $110,000 play on Under 47.

UPDATE 8:30 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: DraftKings opened the Chiefs as 12.5-point faves, dipped to -12 for literally a few minutes early Tuesday, then returned to -12.5. Kansas City is taking a slim majority 52% of spread tickets and a more decisive 68% of spread money. The total toggled between 46.5 and 46 a couple of times and is currently at the latter number, with 67% of tickets on the Over/56% of money on the Under.

UPDATE 1:30 A.M. ET MONDAY: Kansas City (12-5 SU, 8-9 ATS), the two-time defending AFC champ and Super Bowl winner two seasons ago, landed the AFC’s No. 2 seed. In Week 18, the Chiefs went to Denver as 11-point favorites and hung on for a 28-24 victory.

After a bumpy 3-4 SU start, K.C. finished on a 9-1 SU tear. However, the Chiefs followed a 6-0 ATS run by failing to cash in their final two regular-season contests.

Pittsburgh needed a win and some help in Week 18 to reach the playoffs, and got it. The Steelers (9-7-1 SU, 8-9 ATS) took care of the winning part, edging Baltimore 16-13 in overtime as a 3-point road pup. The help came in the form of a stunning Indianapolis outright loss at Jacksonville, and the Chargers-Raiders game not ending in a tie — though it almost did.

Regardless, oddsmakers and bettors were nonplused by Pittsburgh. The SuperBook opened Kansas City at -11.5 and quickly ran up to -13 for this prime-time Sunday meeting. Certainly weighing into that: K.C.’s 36-10 Week 16 wipeout of the Steelers as a 10.5-point home favorite. That SU and ATS defeat was the only one Pittsburgh suffered in its last four games.

“I made it 11.5. I have no idea who bet us, but we’re at -13. Clearly, we’ve had a change of heart,” SuperBook risk manager Rex Beyers said of a notable move on the NFL Wild Card odds board. “My power rating was at 10, but you’ve got to start it higher, because nobody is gonna bet Pittsburgh at +10. And you don’t want the wiseguys and the public on the same side. So start it where you’re not in a horrible spot, to keep the wiseguys from laying you up to 13 before the public comes in. That’s why 11 was the lowest it could’ve possibly been.”

The total was unchanged early on at 46.5.

49ers at Cowboys

Opening line: Cowboys -3, Over/Under 49.5

UPDATE 1 P.M. ET SUNDAY: With 3.5 hours until kickoff, Dallas remains -3 at DraftKings, which hasn’t moved off that line all week, save for some juice adjustments. Currently, the Cowboys are -3 (-115), while attracting 52% of spread bets and 58% of spread money. The total opened at 49.5 and peaked about an hour ago at 51.5, with 59% of bets/64% of money on the Over.

UPDATE 10 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Dallas is nailed to -3 at WynnBet, sticking there all week, with only a couple of juice adjustments. The Cowboys are currently -3 (-120) while taking 54% of tickets, and the 49ers are nabbing 57% of money. The total rose from 49.5 to 51 by Monday night and stuck there, with 63% of tickets/73% of money on the Over.

UPDATE 8 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Caesars books haven’t moved off Dallas -3 all week, with both teams getting a fair share of the action. The Cowboys are landing 57% of spread tickets and 54% of spread money. The total moved from 50 to 51, then to 50.5 on Thursday night.

UPDATE 8:30 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: Dallas has been a steady 3-point favorite this week at DraftKings, though the juice has adjusted a couple of times. The Cowboys are currently -3 (-115), while netting 55% of tickets and money on the spread. The total opened at 51 and quickly dipped to 49.5, then rebounded to 51 by Monday afternoon. Early Tuesday, the total dipped to 50.5, where it remains tonight, with 72% of bets/62% of cash on the Over.

UPDATE 1:30 A.M. ET MONDAY: The Cowboys opened as 3-point favorites at The SuperBook, with the total at 49.5. Neither number moved Sunday night/early today for the middle matchup of a three-game Sunday sandwich.

“I thought 4 was the number, and I talked to a couple other guys who felt it should be lower,” SuperBook risk manager Rex Beyers said. “The line is lower because we know Dallas money is gonna come. But I think there might be some money for the ‘dog, too.”

UPDATE 10:15 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Dallas (12-5 SU, 13-4 ATS) moved up a slot from No. 4 to No. 3 in the NFC, thanks to a Week 18 blowout victory, as well as losses by the Rams and Cardinals.

The Cowboys boat-raced Philadelphia 51-26 as a 6.5-point road underdog on Saturday night. Dallas finished the regular season with the NFL’s best spread-covering mark.

San Francisco, needing a Week 18 win to secure a playoff spot, dug itself into a 17-0 hole at the Los Angeles Rams. But the 49ers rallied in the third quarter to tie it at 17, then tied it again at 24 in the final minute to force overtime. San Francisco (10-7 SU, 9-8 ATS), which closed as 3.5-point pups, then completed the comeback with a field goal and subsequent defensive stop in overtime to prevail 27-24.

The 49ers closed the regular season on a 6-2 SU/ATS run, while Dallas enters the playoffs on a 5-1 SU/ATS spree.

DraftKings pegged Dallas a 3-point favorite to open and hasn’t moved off that number yet. Likewise, the total was unchanged.

Eagles at Buccaneers

Opening line: Buccaneers -8.5, Over/Under 48.5

UPDATE 12:45 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Shortly before kickoff, Tampa Bay has tumbled to -7 at DraftKings, down a full point over the past 18 hours or so. That’s after the Bucs opened -8.5, where the line spent much of the week, and from a brief high point of -9.5. Tampa Bay is landing 61% of spread tickets and 62% of spread money. The total dropped from 49 to 46 by Wednesday, but today it’s up to 47, with 64% of bets on the Over and money running almost dead even.

UPDATE 10 P.M. ET SATURDAY: WynnBet dropped Tampa Bay from -8.5 to -8 earlier this evening, after opening at -9.5 and dipping to 8.5 by Tuesday. The Bucs are taking 60% of point-spread tickets, but perhaps surprisingly, spread money is split 50/50, with sharp action continuing to show on the Eagles. The total tumbled from 49 to 45 by Friday afternoon, in part due to expected foul weather. But that forecast has improved, and the total crept up to 46. The Over is landing 64% of bets, while 65% of money is on the Under.

UPDATE 7:30 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Tampa Bay landed on Caesars’ NFL Wild Card odds board as a 9.5-point favorite and made a couple of trips to -8.5, where the line sits tonight. However, ticket count and money are running just beyond 2/1 on the Buccaneers. The bigger news is on the moneyline, where a customer put $100,000 on Eagles +330.

“Parlays and teasers will mostly be in Tampa’s favor, but still slightly more money overall on the Eagles,” Caesars assistant director of trading Adam Pullen said. “That’s an interesting game, there’s a bit of doubt on the defending Super Bowl champs, and the Eagles have played well down the stretch. But it’s still Tom Brady in the playoffs, so when we get closer to kickoff, I think more people will be backing the Bucs with the proven entity, rather than Jalen Hurts and an Eagles teams that [wasn’t] supposed to be here.”

The total is down to 46 from a 49 opener, in another game potentially impacted by weather.

UPDATE 8:30 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: DraftKings was among the first books to post Sunday night and got run up early after doing so. The Bucs opened at -7 and quickly surged out to -8.5. Since then, save for a few hours Monday at -8, the Bucs have been stable 8.5-point favorites thus far. Tampa Bay is landing 62% of spread tickets and 56% of spread dollars.

The total tumbled from 49 to 46 by this afternoon, with weather a potential factor. The Over is seeing 59% of early tickets, but 77% of early dollars are on the Under.

UPDATE 1:30 A.M. ET MONDAY: The SuperBook opened Tampa Bay an 8.5-point favorite in its NFL Wild Card odds market, and it didn’t take long to move to -9 Sunday night. The total also nudged up, from 48.5 to 49.

“I would think this game will get bet up,” SuperBook risk manager Rex Beyers said. “I doubt it will close 10, but it won’t go lower than 8.5. Nine is a very fluid number, an easy number to get the bookmaker off of. There’s resistance at 10 and at 7.5. Everything in between is up for grabs.”

UPDATE 10:15 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Tampa Bay (13-4 SU, 9-8 ATS) wrapped up the NFC’s No. 2 seed with a comfortable Week 18 victory — and a little bit of help.

The Bucs plowed past Carolina 41-17 as 10.5-point favorites, ending the regular season on runs of 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS. Tampa Bay, which entered Week 18 as the No. 3 seed, moved up a notch when the L.A. Rams lost to the San Francisco 49ers in overtime.

Philadelphia (9-8 SU, 8-8-1 ATS) ended the regular season with a big thud, but had already clinched a playoff spot. The Eagles opted to rest QB Jalen Hurts against Dallas and subsequently got smoked, 51-26 as a 6.5-point home underdog.

Several books waited to post odds until game times were set and/or until the AFC matchups were sorted out. However, DraftKings forged ahead with the NFC Wild Card odds, installing Tampa Bay as a 7-point chalk against No. 7 seed Philadelphia.

And there was fairly quick movement to Buccaneers -8, then later to -8.5. Johnny Avello, director of sportsbook operations for DraftKings, said there was “a little there” for the Bucs at -7, leading to the initial move upward.

The total had a significant adjustment out of the gate, opening at 51 and quickly peeling back to 48, followed by a rise to 49.5.

These teams squared off in the Week 6 Thursday night contest in Philadelphia, where the Buccaneers earned a 28-22 victory, but the Eagles rallied late to cash as 7-point underdogs.

Patriots at Bills

Opening line: Bills -4.5, Over/Under 44

UPDATE 6:15 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Two hours ahead of kickoff, WynnBet has the Bills as 4.5-point favorites, right where this line opened Sunday. In the interim, the number dipped to -4 Tuesday before returning to -4.5 Friday afternoon. It’s two-way action on the spread, with Buffalo taking 58% of bets and 55% of dollars. The total rose from 43.5 to 44 Tuesday and stuck there dropping a full point today to 43. The Under is collecting 60% of bets and 62% money.

UPDATE 12:30 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Buffalo hit PointsBet USA’s NFL Wild Card odds market as a 4-point favorite and stuck there until Friday morning. PointsBet upped the line to -4.5, went to -5 briefly late Friday night, then back to -4.5, before returning to -5 midmorning today. The Bills are netting 56% of tickets, while 65% of money is on the Patriots. The total opened at 42.5, peaked at 44.5 Friday and is now down to 43, with 67% of tickets on the Under/54% of money on the Over.

UPDATE 7:30 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Caesars Sportsbook went a tick lower with its opening number, at Bills -4, then moved up to -4.5. Point-spread ticket count and money are both running 3/1 on Buffalo, which perhaps surprisingly is the most popular team on Caesars’ NFL Wild Card odds board.

“It’s interesting that Bills-Patriots is the spread with the biggest disparity. I wouldn’t have guessed that,” Caesars assistant director of trading Adam Pullen said. “At the beginning of the season, the Bills were viewed as one of the top Super Bowl contenders and the Patriots weren’t expected to do much. With how the Bills came on late in the season, including handling the Patriots in New England, I think those expectations have shifted back to what they were.

“It’s a small number for a team that has been expected to challenge for a Super Bowl all season long, whereas the Patriots haven’t had that as much.”

The total nudged from 43.5 to 44 early in the week and stuck there. Weather will definitely be an issue Saturday night, too, with single-digit temperatures.

UPDATE 8:30 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: Buffalo landed on DraftKings’ NFL Wild Card odds board as a 4.5-point favorite and made a couple of Monday visits to -3.5. The Bills got back to -4.5 Tuesday morning, then went to -4 this afternoon. Buffalo is bagging 63% of spread bets and 70% of spread money. The total fell from 43.5 to 42.5 Monday, then climbed to 44.5 Tuesday, and it’s now at 44. The Over is getting 67% of bets/55% of cash.

UPDATE 1:15 A.M. ET MONDAY: These AFC East rivals split their regular-season meetings, with the road team winning and covering each time. Now, they collide in prime time Saturday night on Super Wild Card Weekend.

Buffalo, which reached the AFC title game last season, nabbed the AFC’s third seed for this season’s playoffs. The Bills (11-6 SU, 9-6-2 ATS) capped the regular season with a 27-10 victory giving 16 points against the visiting Jets. Buffalo ended the regular season on a 4-0 SU/3-1 ATS surge.

New England (10-7 SU and ATS) beat Buffalo 14-10 as a 3-point road underdog in Week 13, the finale of a 7-0 SU and ATS run. But the Patriots haven’t been the same since, going 1-3 SU and ATS. That includes a 33-21 Week 16 home loss laying 1 point against the Bills. In Week 18, the Pats were 6-point road favorites at Miami and lost 33-24.

“Bills -4.5 is the number we all thought was about right,” SuperBook risk manager Rex Beyers said of the risk room meeting of the minds Sunday evening. “I thought a little lower, at 4; [my colleague] Ed Salmons thinks New England is banged up, so he liked it a little higher. And this is the third meeting in a few weeks. It ain’t gonna get to -6. I think 4.5 will probably be the number in the end.”

There was no early movement on the point spread, but the total fell to 43.5 on The SuperBook’s NFL Wild Card odds board.

Raiders at Bengals

Opening line: Bengals -6.5, Over/Under 48

UPDATE 12:30 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Four hours ahead of kickoff, Cincinnati is a 6-point chalk at PointsBet USA, same as the opener, after spending all week bouncing between -5.5 and -5. Ticket count is approaching 2/1 and money 3/1 on the Bengals. The total opened at 49.5, got as low as 48 multiple times Friday, rose to 48.5 early today and is now 48 again. The Over is drawing 67% of tickets/55% of money.

UPDATE 7:30 P.M. ET FRIDAY: As with Patriots-Bills, Caesars opted to open a half-point lower than others on the Super Wild Card Weekend opening matchup. The Bengals went up at -6, bottomed out at -5 and are now -5.5, thanks to a couple of significant bets. Caesars took two $110,000 plays on Cincinnati -5. The Bengals are netting 58% of spread tickets and only 64% of spread dollars, despite those two hefty wagers.

“When the market first opened, there were some Bengals -6.5s. I thought that was a little high, so I went Bengals -6,” Caesars assistant director of trading Adam Pullen said. “We did get to as low as 5, and that’s when the big bets came in. So it’s up to 5.5 off those bets, that’s where all the Cincinnati money was. We’ve had Raiders money at 5.5 and 6. It’s just when it bottomed out that we got Bengals money.”

The total dipped from 49 to 48.5.

UPDATE 8:30 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: In the wee hours of Monday morning, DraftKings initially moved from Bengals -6 to -6.5. However, by Tuesday afternoon, Cincinnati was down to -5, before rebounding to -5.5 by lunchtime today. Cincy is attracting 62% of tickets/72% of money on the point spread. The total opened at 48.5, peaked at 49.5 Monday morning and is at 49 tonight. The Over is drawing 71% of tickets, but money is running almost dead even.

UPDATE 1:15 A.M. ET MONDAY: Las Vegas survived a season full of on-field and off-field issues, including the firing of coach Jon Gruden midstream. But the Raiders (10-7 SU, 9-8 ATS) made the final step as difficult as the rest. In the Sunday night regular-season finale, the Raiders blew a 29-14 fourth-quarter lead against the Chargers, allowing the game-tying touchdown on the final play of regulation.

The teams exchanged field goals on their first two overtime possessions, and with time waning, it appeared Las Vegas just might clock the ball for a tie. Doing so would’ve sent both teams to the playoffs. Instead, the Raiders — who took the field as 3-point home ‘dogs — managed the clock and got a field goal as time expired, winning 35-32.

The kick pushed both Las Vegas and the Pittsburgh Steelers into the playoffs, and knocked the Chargers out.

Cincinnati’s path to the postseason was far less dramatic. The Bengals ended a five-season playoff drought by clinching the AFC North with a Week 17 final-seconds home victory over Kansas City. The Bengals will now try to win a playoff game for the first time since the 1990-91 Wild Card round.

With nothing really to play for in Week 18, Cincinnati (10-7 SU and ATS) rested QB Joe Burrow, among other starters, and lost at Cleveland 21-16. However, the Bengals did cover as 6.5-point pups. They cashed in each of their final four regular-season contests and enter the postseason on a 5-2 ATS roll.

These teams met in Week 11 in Las Vegas, with Cincy rolling 32-13 as a 2.5-point road chalk. But SuperBook risk manager Rex Beyers doesn’t put much stock in that now, with all the Raiders have overcome this season.

“They had to be 50/1 to make the playoffs a month ago,” Beyers said of Las Vegas, which followed a 1-5 SU/ATS midseason slump by winning its final four games (3-1 ATS). “All the credit in the world to everybody in the organization who made that happen. The Raiders kept getting off the mat when they had every incentive to stay down.

“I think the Raiders have a shot to win. The Bengals haven’t won a playoff game since I was prepubescent.”

Beyers expects The SuperBook to need a Raiders outright win, although the Nevada operation — The SuperBook is also in New Jersey, Arizona, and Colorado — likely will have exposure on Raiders moneyline from hometown bettors.

“As a bettor, I’d like the Raiders at 7 flat (-110), and that’s why I don’t think it’s gonna get there. But I won’t be surprised if it does.”

The Bengals haven’t moved off -6.5, but the total jumped a point to 49.